By Azuma, Odaily Daily Planet
On 2 December, BlackRock, the world ' s largest asset management company, released its 2026 investment outlook report. Although the report does not have much direct connection to the encrypted money market (only one page of PDF on 18 pages refers to stabilization currency), as &ldquao; King of Global Governance Rdquo; Belet, in his report, outlined the current circumstances and variables in which the global economy is located, either in a time when the encrypted currency market is becoming more closely linked to mainstream financial markets, or with some guidance for macro-changes in the post-market context; in addition, Belet gave the agency ' s configuration strategy in the new market environment, perhaps with some reference for users wishing to expand the scope of investment。
The entire report is longer, and the Daily Daily Daily Planet will attempt to streamline this 2026 operational secret that outlines Belet。
“ superpower ” reshaping the world
Beled, in his opening remarks, mentioned that the world today is undergoing a period of structural change driven by geopolitical fragmentation, the evolution of the financial system (Odaily note: this is mainly about stabilization currency, energy transformation, etc. & ldquo; superpower ” mega forces; and the most remarkable of these are undoubtedly artificial intelligence (AI) & mdash; & mdash; AI) and the industry is moving at unprecedented speed and scale, and from “ light capital ” model to “ heavy capital ” and paradigm shifts are profoundly changing the investment environment。
under the current market structure, investors find it difficult to avoid judging the direction of the post-market — & mdash; this means that there is no absolute neutrality and even broad index investments are not neutral options。
LEADING FORCES: AI
AI is now the dominant superpower that drives the US stock up this year. In recent months, investors have become increasingly concerned about whether AI foams are forming & mdash; & mdash; Shiller earnings data show that US stock valuations have reached the peak levels of Internet bubbles and the Great Depression of 1929。
Historically, market bubbles have emerged in several major transition periods and may be repeated this time, but bubbles often show clear signs only when they break apart. That is why Belet will focus his report on the question of the scale of AI investment versus the magnitude of potential returns — this is both the main thread behind the AI technology revolution and the core questions that this report wishes to address。
BELED ARGUED THAT THE AI THEME REMAINED THE MAIN DRIVING FORCE OF THE UNITED STATES STOCK MARKET AND THAT THE AGENCY WOULD THEREFORE INSIST ON RISK PREFERENCES, BUT THE CURRENT MARKET ENVIRONMENT PLACED GREATER DEMANDS ON PROACTIVE INVESTMENT. WHETHER IT IS THE SCREENING OF WINNERS IN THE AI COMPETITION AT THIS STAGE OR THE CAPTURING OF OPPORTUNITIES IN THE FUTURE AS AI GAINS BEGIN TO SPREAD, THE CHOICE OF INITIATIVE IS CRUCIAL。
market core questions: “ pre-expenditure ” with “ back-up gains ” match
AT PRESENT, THE CORE QUESTION FOR MARKET INVESTORS IS HOW TO ASSESS THE MAGNITUDE OF THE HUGE CAPITAL EXPENDITURE ON AI AND ITS POTENTIAL INCOME
AI development requires pre-investment in the areas of computing, data centres and energy infrastructure, but the final return on these investments is lagging. The time lag between capital expenditure and final gains has prompted AI builders to begin to use debt to cross financing barriers. Such a precursor to expenditure is necessary to achieve the final gain, but it also creates a distinct investment climate & mdash; & mdash; its core features include:
- Higher leverage: a significant increase in the distribution of credit in public and private markets
- Better capital costs: large borrowing pushes interest rates
- (A) FOCUS ON OPPORTUNITIES: UNTIL AI GAINS SPREAD TO THE ECONOMY AS A WHOLE, MARKET INCREASES REMAINED HIGHLY CONCENTRATED ON THE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY SECTOR
- Increased active investment space: The space for active management and stock selection will increase significantly when revenues actually spread to industries other than science and technology。
The question of the matching of expenditure with income is not conclusive. Beled believes that the final answer depends on whether America's economic growth will break the long-term 2 per cent trend。
Belet expects that capital spending on AI will continue to support economic growth in 2026, and this year the contribution of investment to growth in the United States is three times the historical average. This “ heavy capital & rdquo; the growth dynamics of the model are likely to continue into the next year, allowing economic growth to remain resilient even if the labour market continues to cool。
But is that enough to push the US economy past the long-term 2% trend? All major innovations of the past 150 years & mdash; including steam engines, electricity and digital revolution — — failed to achieve this breakthrough. However, AI may make it possible for the first time. The reason is that AI is not only an innovation in itself, but also has the potential to accelerate other innovations. It goes beyond automating tasks and can accelerate creativity and scientific breakthroughs through self-learning and iterative improvements。
Three core themes
Micro-macro
INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT IN AI IS CURRENTLY DOMINATED BY A SMALL NUMBER OF COMPANIES, WHOSE EXPENDITURES ARE LARGE ENOUGH TO HAVE A MACRO-LEVEL IMPACT. THE OVERALL REVENUE GENERATED THROUGH AI IN THE FUTURE MAY SUPPORT THIS EXPENDITURE, BUT IT IS NOT CLEAR WHAT SHARE THE LEADING TECHNOLOGY COMPANIES WILL RECEIVE。
BELET WILL MAINTAIN A RISK PREFERENCE AND MATCH THE EQUITY WITH THE AI THEME (WHICH IS UNDERPINNED BY STRONG PROFIT EXPECTATIONS). EVEN IF INDIVIDUAL COMPANIES ARE UNABLE TO FULLY RECOVER THEIR INVESTMENTS, OVERALL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE IS EXPECTED TO YIELD RETURNS), WHILE CONSIDERING THE CURRENT TIMING FOR PROACTIVE INVESTMENT。
Leverage up
Long-term financial support is needed to cross the AI & ldquo; pre-investment and return on & rdquo; and leverage is inevitable. This process has begun, as evidenced by recent large-scale debt payments by large technology companies。
Belet expects that businesses will continue to use open and private credit markets on a large scale. The expansion of public and private sector lending may continue to place upward pressure on interest rates. The high cost of debt servicing is one of the reasons why we believe that the term premium (i.e. the compensation required for investors to hold long-term bonds) will rise and push up the rate of return. On this basis, we have turned to low-cost long-term United States national debt。
The Fault of Diversification
Portfolio decisions made in the name of “ diversification & rdquo; have become more proactive than ever in order to circumvent the few forces currently driving the market. The Belet analysis shows that the growing share of the United States stock market returns is reflecting a single, common driver after removing the common drivers of return for equities such as value and momentum. Market concentration increased and the breadth narrowed. Attempts to spread the risk exposure to the United States or AI, including through a shift to other regions or equivalent weight indices, in essence constitute more proactive decision-making than ever before。
IN BELET ' S VIEW, GENUINE DIVERSIFICATION IMPLIES A SHIFT FROM A BROAD CLASS OF ASSETS OR A REGIONAL PERSPECTIVE TO A MORE PRECISE, FLEXIBLE CONFIGURATION AND THEME THAT CAN WORK ACROSS SCENARIOS. THE PORTFOLIO NEEDS CLEAR PLAN B AND IS READY TO MOVE QUICKLY. IN THIS ENVIRONMENT, INVESTORS SHOULD REDUCE THE BLIND SPREAD OF RISK AND PLACE GREATER EMPHASIS ON THE CONSCIOUS ASSUMPTION OF RISK。
Views on the stabilization currency
Summarizing &ldquao; superpower &rdquao, which is currently reshaping the global economy and financial markets, Belet highlighted five directions: AI, geopolitics, financial systems, private lending, and energy infrastructure。
Among them, the only case in which the evolution of the financial system had been addressed was the development of a stable currency. Belet saw a trend towards increasing the use of stabilization currency and further integration into the mainstream payment system。
Stable currencies are expected to compete with bank deposits or money market funds and, if sufficiently large, may significantly affect the way banks provide credit to the wider economy. In addition to the banking sector, Belet noted the potential for currency stabilization in cross-border payments. In emerging markets, stabilization currencies can also be used as an alternative to local currencies for domestic payments, expanding the use of the dollar, while at the same time challenging the control of monetary policy and supporting the dollar to some extent if local currencies are used in decline。
these changes mark a modest but important step towards a monetized financial system. the system is rapidly evolving & mdash; & mdash; the digital dollar coexists with traditional channels and reshapes the mode of brokering and policy transfer。
Belet's configuration plan
all right, that is the most important thing, and belet concludes his report with a presentation of the agency's allocation strategy for the various types of assets and an analysis of its investment logic from a tactical and strategic perspective. & ldquo; hyegen & rdquo; not so much as “ will follow ” or may copy the job directly if you do not want to think through your head。
In a cycle of more than five years (strategy) and six-December (tactical), Belet ' s core configuration is as follows。
Strategic level:
- Group construction: As AI winners and losers become clear, we prefer scenarios. Special returns are obtained from private markets and hedge funds and are used to anchor the configuration of “ superpower &rdquo。
- infrastructure equity and private credit: we find infrastructure equity valuation attractive and superpowers supporting structural demand. we still look forward to private loans, but we anticipate that there will be a division of & mdash; — which highlights the importance of managing the recruitment of candidates。
- Beyond the market value weighted benchmark: We will fine-tune it in the open market. A preference for developed market government bonds outside the United States. In terms of equities, we look at emerging markets as a whole rather than developed markets, but select them internally. In emerging markets, we favour India, which is at the crossroads of massive forces; in developed markets, we appreciate Japan, whose prospects are being improved by moderate inflation and business reforms。
At the tactical level:
- AI: THE STRONG PROFITABILITY, ROBUST PROFITABILITY AND HEALTHY BALANCE SHEETS OF LARGE LISTED TECHNOLOGY ENTERPRISES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF AI. THE FEDERAL RESERVE’S LIBERAL POLICY AND THE REDUCTION OF POLICY UNCERTAINTY, WHICH CONTINUED INTO 2026, CONSOLIDATED OUR POSITION ON THE SUPER-AMERICAN EQUITY。
- Selected international exposure: We look forward to the Japanese stock because of its strong nominal growth and the smooth progress of corporate governance reforms. We have maintained selective investments in European equities, favouring finance, utilities and health-care blocks; in the area of revenue sequestration, we have preferred emerging markets because of their increased economic resilience and stronger fiscal and monetary policies。
- Decentralization tools that have evolved over time: Given that long-term United States debt is no longer able to provide portfolio stabilization, we suggest looking for & ldquo; Plan B & rdquo; a combination of hedge tools and attention to potential emotional shifts. Gold, because of its unique drivers, can be used as a tactical operation, but we do not regard it as a long-term combination hedge tool。
Belet explained the rationale and reasons for the distribution of stocks and fixed earnings in various markets。
- UNITED STATES STOCK MARKETS (EXCESSIVE MATCHING): STRONG CORPORATE PROFITABILITY (PARTLY DRIVEN BY AI THEMES) AND A STRONG MACRO BACKGROUND WILL SUPPORT US EQUITY PERFORMANCE
- (b) European stock markets (neutral): more pro-business policies and deeper capital markets need to be seen, with a temporary preference for finance, utilities and health care
- United Kingdom stock market (neutral): Valuations remain attractive vis-à-vis the United States, but remain neutral in the short term owing to a lack of catalyst push-up。
- JAPANESE STOCK MARKETS (EXCESSIVE MATCHING): STRONG NOMINAL GDP, HEALTHY CORPORATE CAPITAL SPENDING, GOVERNANCE REFORMS, AND SO ON, ARE ALL GOOD FOR THE DAY。
- China's stock market (neutral): Preference for technology units within the neutral zone。
- EMERGING MARKETS (NEUTRAL): ECONOMIC RESILIENCE HAS IMPROVED, BUT STILL NEEDS TO BE SELECTED. OPPORTUNITIES RELATED TO AI, ENERGY TRANSFORMATION, SUPPLY CHAIN RESTRUCTURING, SUCH AS MEXICO, BRAZIL AND VIET NAM, WILL BE VALUED。