Coin Metrics: Why has the current round of bitcoin been extended

The agency is entering a more moderate maturity cycle with a confluence and a cooler volatility。

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TL; TR

• As long-term holders are sold in batches and new participants take over, the speed of turnover in the supply of bitcoin slows down and shows a more smooth transfer of ownership。
• SINCE THE BEGINNING OF 2024, ONLY TWO CHANNELS, THE SPOT BITCOIN ETF AND THE ENCRYPTED TREASURY (DAT), HAVE TAKEN ON ABOUT 57 PER CENT OF THE INCREASE IN SHORT-TERM HOLDERS, WHICH NOW ACCOUNTS FOR NEARLY A QUARTER OF THE TOTAL AMOUNT OF BITCOIN IN CIRCULATION OVER THE PAST YEAR。
• The persistence of real volatility signals the maturity of market structures, characterized by institutional demand-led and longer cycles。

Following the historic heights of earlier this year, Bitcoin was in the stage of almost total consolidation, having briefly collapsed at the $100,000 threshold for the first time since June. The adverse macroeconomic winds, weak stock markets and the rare event of encrypted currency clearing have together curbed market sentiment, slowed capital inflows and called into question the sustainability of the market ' s Bitcoin cattle market. In addition, concerns about the transfer or sale of early silos by large holders are growing, putting pressure on the Bitcoin and the whole encrypted currency market. After a recent decline, the total market value of the current encrypted currency market is approximately $3.6 trillion。

Through superficial phenomena, the Bitcoin chain provides an important background. In this paper, we will explore how changes in the behaviour of Bitcoin holders and core demand drivers affect market sentiment and define the rhythm of the current cycle. By analysing dynamic supply changes and demand channels, we will look into whether recent market volatility is a sign of profit at the end of the cycle or a structural shift in Bitcoin ownership。

Distribution of supply and institutional acceptance

Active supply

First, we look at the active supply of bitcoin, which is broken down by "the length of the last move on the chain" and reflects the movement of different years of currency possession, which clearly shows the distribution of supplies between "sleeping tokens" and "recent move tokens."。

THE FIGURE BELOW SHOWS SEPARATELY THE SHARE OF THE SUPPLY OF BITCOIN HELD FOR MORE THAN ONE YEAR, WHICH CAN BE USED AS PROXY FOR LONG-TERM HOLDERS (LTH) HOLDINGS. IN HISTORICAL TERMS, THIS PROPORTION INCREASES DURING BEAR MARKETS (WHICH CONCENTRATES ON LONG-TERM HOLDERS) AND DECREASES DURING CATTLE MARKETS (WHICH BEGIN TO MOVE CURRENCY, END UP PROFITING FROM HIGHER PRICES)。

Source: Coin Metrics Network Data Pro

To date, about 52 per cent of the 1994 million in circulation of bitcoins have remained unchanged for over a year, down from 61 per cent at the beginning of 2024. Both the increase during the bear and the decline during the cattle market were markedly flat. The first quarter of 2024, the third quarter of 2024 and the recent period in 2025 were marked by a pattern of bulk deliveries。This indicates that long-term holders are selling tokens in a more sustained manner, reflecting the longer cycle of transfer of ownership。

ETF AND DAT: CORE DRIVERS OF DEMAND

IN CONTRAST, THE SUPPLY OF SHORT-TERM HOLDERS (ACTIVE COINS OVER THE PAST YEAR) HAS STEADILY INCREASED SINCE 2024, OWING TO THE RETURN OF PREVIOUSLY DORMANT TOKENS TO CIRCULATION. AT THE SAME TIME, SPOT BITCOIN ETF WAS LAUNCHED, AND THE GROWTH RATE OF ENCRYPTED TREASURY (DAT) WAS ACCELERATING. THESE TWO CHANNELS HAVE CREATED NEW AND CONTINUING DEMANDS AND HAVE TAKEN OVER SUPPLIES FROM LONG-TERM HOLDERS。

As of November 2025, the number of bitcoins active in the past year was 7.83 million, an increase of about 34 per cent (revolving dormant coins) compared to 5.86 million at the beginning of 2024. In the same periodThe stock holding stock of spot bitcoin ETF and Strategy increased from approximately 600,000 bitcoin to 1.9 million, absorbing a net increase of nearly 57 per cent in short-term holder supply。Currently, these two channels together account for about 23 per cent of the supply of short-term holders。

Although inflows have slowed in recent weeks, overall trends suggest that supply is gradually shifting to more stable, long-term holding channels, a unique feature of the market structure of the current cycle。

Data source: Coin Metrics Network Data Pro & Bitbo Treaties; note: ETF supply excluding FBTC, DAT supply with Strategy

Short-term and long-term holder behaviour

THE TREND IN REAL PROFITS FURTHER CONFIRMS THE SMOOTHNESS OF THE SUPPLY DYNAMICS OF BITCOIN. THE RATIO OF EARNINGS SPENT ON OUTPUT (SOPR) IS USED TO MEASURE WHETHER THE HOLDER IS PROFITABLE OR SELLING THE CURRENCY AT A LOSS, WHICH CLEARLY REFLECTS THE BEHAVIOUR PATTERNS OF DIFFERENT GROUPS OF HOLDERS IN THE MARKET CYCLE。

IN PREVIOUS CYCLES, GAINS AND LOSSES FOR LONG-TERM AND SHORT-TERM HOLDERS TENDED TO FLUCTUATE SHARPLY AND SIMULTANEOUSLY. IN THE RECENT PAST, THIS RELATIONSHIP HAS BEEN POLARIZED: THE LONG-TERM HOLDER SOPR IS STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE 1, INDICATING THAT IT IS STEADILY ACHIEVING PROFITABILITY, WITH MODERATE SALES。

Source: Coin Metrics Network Data Pro

THE FACT THAT SHORT-TERM HOLDERS SOPR ARE HOVERING NEAR THE PROFIT-LOSS BALANCE LINE ALSO EXPLAINS THE CAUTION OF RECENT MARKET SENTIMENT, AS MANY SHORT-TERM HOLDERS ARE HELD CLOSE TO COST. THE DICHOTOMY OF THE BEHAVIOUR OF THE TWO CATEGORIES OF HOLDERS REFLECTS THE FACT THAT THE MARKET IS AT A MORE PEACEFUL STAGE: INSTITUTIONAL DEMAND EMBRACES THE SUPPLY FROM LONG-TERM HOLDERS, RATHER THAN REPRODUCING THE DRAMATIC PAST. IF THE SHORT-TERM HOLDER SOPR CONTINUES TO BREAK THROUGH, IT MAY MEAN THAT MARKET DYNAMICS WILL INCREASE。

While the overall recall would still reduce the profitability of all groups of holders, the overall pattern shows a more balanced market structure:The realization of supply turnover and profitability has progressed gradually, prolonging the Bitcoin cycle。

Bitcoin volatility drops

This structural flatness is also reflected in the rate of movement of bitcoin, which has long shown a downward trend. At present, the real volatility of 30, 60, 180 and 360 days of Bitcoin has stabilized at about 45 to 50 per cent, while in the past it was often extremely volatile, leading to a large market boom. Today, bitcoin ' s volatility features are becoming closer to large technology units, indicating that it is mature as an asset. This reflects both improved liquidity and greater institutional ownership of the investor base。

For asset configurorsDeclining volatility rates may increase the attractiveness of bitcoin in the portfolio, especially as its relevance to macro-assets such as equities, gold and so on remains dynamic。

Source: Coin Metrics Market Data Pro

Conclusions

The trend along the bitcoin chain suggests that the current cycle is moving forward at a more smooth and longer stage, with no previous surge of fanaticism in cattle markets。LONG-TERM HOLDERS DELIVER IN BATCHES AND ARE LARGELY TAKEN OVER BY MORE SUSTAINABLE DEMAND CHANNELS (ETF, DAT AND BROADER INSTITUTIONAL HOLDING)。This shift marks a mature market structure: a decline in volatility and speed of circulation, with longer cycles。

NEVERTHELESS, MARKET DYNAMISM DEPENDS ON THE CONTINUITY OF DEMAND. THE FLATENING OF ETF INFLOWS, PRESSURE ON SOME DATS, RECENT MARKET-WIDE CLEARING EVENTS, AND SHORT-TERM HOLDERS OF SOPRS NEAR THE PROFIT-AND-LOSS BALANCE LINE HIGHLIGHT THE FACT THAT THE MARKET IS IN THE PROCESS OF RESTRUCTURING. THE CONTINUING RISE IN LONG-TERM HOLDER SUPPLY (HOLDING MORE THAN A YEAR OF UNMOVED COINS), SOPR BREAKTHROUGH 1, SPOT BITCOIN ETF AND THE RE-INFLOW OF STABLE CURRENCY FUNDS CAN BE KEY SIGNALS OF A RETURN TO MARKET POWER。

Looking ahead, macro-uncertainties, improved liquidity conditions and regulatory progress related to market structures are likely to accelerate capital inflows again and prolong the bull market cycle. Despite a cooling of market sentiment, the market base has become healthier as a result of recent deleveraging, supported by the expansion of institutional channels and the spread of infrastructure along the chain。