Dialogue Pantera Founder: Bitcoin has escaped and traditional assets are being left behind
Original by The Master Manager Podcast with Wilfred Frost
Original language: White sector block chain
During this interview, Wilfred Frost had a second in-depth dialogue with Dan Morehead, founder of Pantera Capital. They explored the cyclical positioning of bitcoin after 50 per cent withdrawal from its high points; how the devaluation of the French currency created intergenerational wealth conflicts; and why this round of “smart money” was the last to enter。
Summary of outstanding views
- Most institutional investors still have zero per cent of the warehouse space on the block chain, literally zero。
- It's not gold that's high, it's paper that's low。
- This could be the first “smart money” in history to end up in business。
- The average age of first-time buyers in the United States has been reduced from 28 to 40。
- We are facing an intergenerational turning point where the currency is separated from the State。
- A stable currency is likely to take half of the bank deposits within 10 years。
- Bitcoin has reached flight speed, and I cannot find anything to derail the process。
- If you don't have any chain openings, you're kind of emptying the trend。
01. “Talking remains the most asymmetrical transaction in history”
Moderator: Last time you came, we went into the macro logic of encrypted currency. The first time you bought bitcoin, it was amazingly low. How many
Dan Morehead:$65。
Moderator: 65 dollars, compared to our price today of about $66,000, is just two worlds. In that show, you described bitcoin as “the most asymmetrical transaction in history”. Do you still hold that view today
Dan Morehead: Yes, I'm still convinced of that. Throughout my career, I have been looking for asymmetrical opportunities that have much greater potential to rise than the risk of falling. Bitcoin, and the wider field of encryption, is the strongest asymmetric transaction I've ever seen。
In the early days, I'll tell people that you could have lost all the principal, so don't invest more money than you can afford. But at the same time, you're likely to get five, ten, or even a thousand。
The reason I still look forward to it is that we are still very early。Most institutional investors continue to hold zero per cent on block chains and encrypted currency。Literally zero. This asymmetry will not disappear as long as downside risk is insignificant relative to the volume of global financial assets, and the upper space is a redefinition of the entire monetary system。
2nd, 4th cycle
Moderator: We last recorded on 12 October, when the timing was interesting. On or about 6 October, the encrypted currency reached a stage high, followed by a reversal. Since then, bitcoin has fallen by about 50 per cent. How do you interpret this crash as someone who's been through multiple cycles
Dan Morehead: Any attempt to change the world is accompanied by a lot of speculation and volatility. There was optimism when it was higher and pessimism when it was lower. Pantera has been working in this industry for 13 years and has been going through four full four-year cycles. These cycles are very regular and even predictable。
When we met in October, we coincided with our predictions two to three years ago. Based on models from the first three cycles, it is expected that Bitcoin will reach a stage high in August 2025. While we hoped to see different results this time, such as a break in the cycle of new government policies, after all, the cycle pattern was self-fulfilled。The market fell by 50 per cent. That sounds a lot, but it's a lot more mild this time than the 85 per cent drop in the previous cycle. The market might need itIt takes about a year to build the bottom, which is consistent with the past。
Moderator: You didn't show up empty. Do you think this cycle will end up down 75 to 80% as before
Dan Morehead: This is a key issue. I did not predict so much decline, because there were many positive factors. But the market has its own rhythm. I would like to point out that, at previous heights, prices have deviated far from the long logarithmic trend line, showing a crazy parabolic trend. In 2013, for example, prices increased tenfold in the first four months of the high point. And this time, prices did not show the extreme heat, but only roughly returned to 2021 levels。
So I think the current price is probably at the bottom。It might take six months or eight months. BottomBut if you have an investment perspective of four to five years, it is now an attractive location。
Moderator: The current price is around $66,000. Many technical analysts have indicated that $60,000 is a key supporting position and that if it falls, it could go down to $25,000. Do you agree
Dan Morehead: I'm not good at technical analysis. We never try to make super short-term timing deals. We manage funds more like venture capital, with a perspective of five, 10 and even 20 years. From this point of view, prices are now quite cheap。
Why is Bitcoin always the first to get hit
Moderator: Why is Bitcoin always a “breathbox” in a risky asset? When NASDAQ and the BDP 500 meet, encrypted currency is often the first to be sold. Will this last forever
Dan Morehead: This is a very sensitive observation. Think about it. You can't sell stocks if you have a major shock outside the trading hours from Monday to Friday. Encrypted money is the only high-liquid market in the world of $2 trillion, open 24 hours a year。
When geopolitical crises break out, and institutions want to reduce exposure immediately, Bitcoin becomes their only real-time real-time real-time asset。This has led to too much pressure in the short term. But please note that, while the correlation will soar at the time of the flashing, in the long runBitcoin's got a very low correlation to the 500, probably between 0.1 and 0.2I don't know。In the dimensions of several years, the encrypted currency moves up independently, while traditional assets may be simply moving forward。
04, not gold. Paper money is at a record low
Moderator: Let's talk about gold. Gold has risen by 55 per cent over the past 12 months, while bitcoin has remained almost the same. Does that shake the Bitcoin narrative of digital gold
Dan Morehead:Gold is an interesting old-fashioned asset. It enters the public view periodically。UNTIL 2025, THE GOLD ETF HAD ACTUALLY MOVED OUT OF THE COUNTRY FOR MANY YEARS, WHILE THE MONEY HAD BEEN FLOWING INTO THE BITCOIN ETF. BY 2025, HOWEVER, THERE WAS A SUDDEN REALIZATION OF THE ACCELERATED DEPRECIATION OF THE UNITED STATES DOLLAR, A SENSE OF URGENCY THAT ALLOWED THE FLOW OF FUNDS BACK INTO GOLD。
But I think differently:It's not gold or real estate that's up, it's paper that's up and downI don't know. As the printing machines continue to operate, the number of notes required to buy fixed amounts of assets is bound to rise. The term Pounds is initially a pound of pure silver, and now you have to take hundreds of notes to buy the same weight of silver. The government can print money indefinitely, which is at the heart of the devaluation deal。
Moderator: Are we not now in an alarming devaluation cycle
Dan Morehead: Absolutely. The Federal Reserve's definition of “stable prices” as a 2 per cent depreciation per annum is itself absurd. Stability should be zero. Even if only 2 per cent are depreciated annually, the purchasing power of a person ' s lifetime will shrink by almost 90 per cent. (Accounted by: 2 per cent annual depreciation and 80 per cent reduction in purchasing power after 80 yearsI think people are awakening to the need to hold a fixed number of hard assets, whether stocks, gold or encrypted currency。
Such devaluation transactions also have distinct intergenerational characteristics. Large-scale printing of banknotes has pushed up asset prices, benefiting older generations who already hold property and shares, but squeezing the space for youth to rise. The average age of first-time buyers in the United States has been reduced from 28 to 40. Since wealth cannot be accumulated through traditional routes, it is a rational choice for the younger generation to turn to encrypted currencies. If you look at the wage growth and the housing price growth curve since 1990, you'll find that the cutter is already out of proportion。
05. Separation of currency from the State
Moderator: How can geopolitical conflicts change the logic of encrypted currency
Dan Morehead: War always leads to sustained inflation. But more importantly, we are witnessing “the separation of currencies from the State”. In ancient times, money was gold and it was naturally independent of the Government. The Government subsequently had a monopoly on printing money, but they had proved to be poorly managed。
Over the next decade, there will be a growing realization that currency does not require national endorsement。This trend has been made clearer by geopolitical conflicts — the world is becoming a camp. If you are a country that does not belong to the United States, or if you fear that your assets may be sanctioned and frozen, you would want an asset that is not controlled by any single State. China had invested large amounts of foreign exchange reserves in United States Treasury debt, which was becoming increasingly risky in the current international landscape. The value of Bitcoin, as an asset independent of the banking system and the sanctions system, is even more pronounced in conflict。
06, Smart Money
Moderator: How many people do they really hold encrypted currency? Is there a lot of real institutional space around the globe
Dan Morehead: Still very few. While 34 billion people worldwide hold encrypted currencies, most are small holdings of “vote” nature. But I think that in 10 years, with the spread of smartphones (the world's 4 billion users), most people will use encrypted money. It transfers across borders quickly, almost free of charge and without the permission of anyone。
This could be the first time in history that smart money ever entered the fieldI don't know. All the investment opportunities I've seen in the past 40 years are usually meat first on Wall Street and last switch. This time, in complete reverse, individual investors are at the forefront. I was with many of the hundreds of billions of dollars of alternative investors, many of whom know nothing about bitcoin。
That's why I see it so well..These smart, rich institutional funds will come in one day. Coinbase has now been included in the 500 Index。If you don't have any chain openings, you're kind of emptying the trend。
07, from hostile to safe
Moderator: Attitudinal change in the new Government is an important variable of the cycle. How do you assess the current policy environment
Dan Morehead: It's a great wind. The previous government took a hostile approach to the block chain, chasing Coinbase and hitting Ripple. And now the government is willing to build the industry. Although the pace of legislation is always urgent, franklyThe United States Congress can take time to discuss the topic of “Stabilizing the structure of the currency market”This in itself suggests a qualitative change in the position of the industry。
With regard to the currency, it's a revolution in stagesI don't know. The current stabilization currency may not have fully paid interest, but it is only a matter of time. Stable currency is encroaching on the market for bank deposits. The size of the stable currency is currently about $400 billion, while bank deposits are $17 trillion. (Editor: As of March 2026, the total market value of the stable currency was about $300-32 billion, from multiple data platforms such as DefiLlama, CoinDesk, etc.) In the next decade, the stable currency is likely to take half of the bank deposits, as it is readily available on mobile phones and experience far better than traditional banks。
Will strategic bitcoin reserves come
Moderator: You are also concerned about digital assets, such as MicroStrategy. Do you think the government will build strategic bitcoin reserves in the future
Dan Morehead: I think this is highly probable. The United States already has a digital asset reserve of a certain size, mostly from law enforcement forfeiture. Now they don't sell these assets, and they may even start growing. Countries that are aligned with the United States will follow with strategic considerations, and countries that are opposed to the United States will buy for defensive purposes。It takes time to move forward in the political machineBut the trend is irreversible。
09. Why Solana
Moderator: Why do you care so much about Solana
Dan Morehead: We hold bitcoin for a long time, but bitcoin focuses on value storage, and it can't handle tens of thousands of high-frequency transactions per second. Solana was originally designed to be high-performance, cheaper, faster, suitable for complex applications such as games, high-frequency transactions, etc. There are Google and Facebook on the Internet and several core Layer 1 in the area of block chains。Bitcoin is gold, and Solana could be a digital highway。
10, 12% for NASDAQ and 50% for bitcoin
Moderator: NASDAQ fell 12.5 per cent from its high point, while Bitcoin fell 50 per cent. Is this disconnect reasonable
Dan Morehead: I think it's very unreasonable。The current historical high in equity valuation and the extremely low risk premium, while interest rates remain high, means that equities are already very expensive relative to bonds。
THERE ARE ALSO SIGNS OF OVERHEATING IN THE AI AREA AND MANY AI VALUATIONS ARE WELL ABOVE TREND LINES。
InverseEncrypted currency. It's 50% below the long-term trend lineI don't know. In terms of asset allocation, encrypted currencies are now in an attractive oversale zone。Even if NASDAQ continues to fall in the future, I think that encrypted money will do better in the span of two years。
“I can't find anything to derail the process”
Moderator: What is the difference between you now and you in Bear City in 2014, 2018
Dan Morehead: It's completely different. In the early days, I did have cold sweats, fearing that the whole experiment would be completely over because of a hacker attack or regulatory pressure. However, after the collapse of Mt. Gox, 85 per cent of the retreats, and the breakdown of the regulatory wheel, the industry has not failed, but has grown stronger. It has reached flight speed。
Moderator: Is there anything that can get you to give up completely
Dan Morehead: I had a long list of risks a few years ago, including safe custody, hacker attacks, regulatory uncertainty. But now look back, most of these risks have been addressed. While no one can guarantee that there will be no accident tomorrow, logically I have found no element that would completely derail the process。A globalized monetary system based on smartphones is the inevitable direction of human societyI don't know. With 4 billion mobile phone subscribers worldwide, the financial inclusion of block chains is far more important than sharing photos in social media。
