AMERICA'S SHORT-TERM CEASEFIRE. BTC'S UP TO $72,000

Original Odaily Daily@OdailyChinaI'm not sure

Author Asher@Asher 0210I'm not sure

Last night, United States President Trump gave Iran an ultimatum that “an entire civilization will die tonight” and suggested that military action might be taken by Tuesday. Yet just as the market stood still, today he suddenly announced — within two weeks — that the bombing and attacks on Iran would be suspended。

This unexpected turn of events triggered an entire encrypted market and a long-standing and massive rebound。

OKX SHOWS THAT THIS MORNING THE BTC ROSE FROM $67,700 TO $72000 AT ONE POINT, WITH AN INCREASE OF 4.01 PER CENT FOR 24 HOURS; ETH ALSO INCREASED FROM $2060 TO $2270, WITH AN INCREASE OF 6.03 PER CENT FOR 24 HOURS; AND SOL INCREASED FROM $78 TO $87, WITH AN INCREASE OF 5.92 PER CENT FOR 24 HOURS。

Coinglass DataIt shows that $530 million was sold in the past 12 hours, of which $402 million was empty and $129 million was available; in addition, there were nearly 120,000 people in 24 hours。

What are the hidden variables beyond the temporary easing of the situation in the United States and the United States? After the boom, did the encrypted market reverse the starting point, or did it burn outOdaily Daily PlanetIt will be broken down in one way or another and will lead you to understand the dark battle between emotions and money。

The US-Iraq ceasefire window was short and unsatisfied, followed by a rebound or obstruction

Despite the fact that the ceasefire between the United States and Iraq came into effect today at 8 p.m. Beijing time and that the Prime Minister of Pakistan, Shabaz Sharif, has invited representatives of both sides to Islamabad for negotiationsThe market remains sceptical about the sustainability of the ceasefire。The terms of the ceasefire announced by the Supreme National Security Council of Iran are extremely high, including the need for Iran-led controlled passage of the Strait of Hormuz, the withdrawal of United States troops from all bases in the region, the lifting of all sanctions and the unfreezing of overseas assets, full compensation for war losses and eventual confirmation through United Nations Security Council resolutions。At the same time, the Iranian side expressed its “total distrust” of the United States and stressed that it would not negotiate under threat or deadlines。

The fact that Trump had previously suspended or extended operations after several deadlines threats had been made had kept the market extremely alert to “this is a genuine ceasefire”. In addition, the Israel Times, citing a security official, reported thatAlthough the United States and Iran have declared a ceasefire, Israel “continuously strikes against Iran”The situation in the region remains highly uncertain。

IN THE SHORT TERM, THE REBOUND IN THE ENCRYPTION MARKET IS LARGELY BASED ON INSTANT FIXES OF EMPTY SILOS AND RISK PREFERENCES RATHER THAN ON TREND CONFIRMATION. THE MARKET HAS BECOME SKEPTICAL, AND COMMENTS ON PLATFORM X HAVE OFTEN BEEN MADE ABOUT “THE CEASEFIRE CAN'T LAST 24 HOURS” AND “ONLY WORDS GAME”. IF NEGOTIATIONS FAIL WITHIN A TWO-WEEK WINDOW OR THERE ARE RISKY INCIDENTS, SUCH AS MISSILE ATTACKS, ISRAELI MILITARY OPERATIONS, THE CONFLICT COULD ESCALATE AGAIN AT ANY TIME。

SoThis morning's rebound is more like an event-driven phase up than a bottom confirmation。

BITCOIN ETF FUNDS WARMED UP: FALLING IN MARCH AND CONTINUING NET INFLOWS IN APRIL

According to SoSoValue data, the real bitcoin ETF since 2026 has shown a marked split。

BETWEEN JANUARY AND FEBRUARY, REAL-TIME ETF FUNDS IN BITCOIN CONTINUED TO FLOW, WITH NET OUTFLOWS IN JANUARY OF APPROXIMATELY $1.6 BILLION, AND IN FEBRUARY OF APPROXIMATELY $206 MILLION, WITH A CLEAR BURDEN ON THE ENCRYPTED MARKET AT THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR。In March, Bitcoin cash ETF  strong financial returns, net one-month inflows of $1.32 billion, not only put an end to the four consecutive months of outflows but also became the first positive monthly inflows in 2026, as well as the first positive monthly inflows since October 2025。

IN APRIL, THE SPOT IN BITCOIN ETF FUNDS CONTINUED THE TREND OF NET INFLOWS。April 6, net daily inflows reached $471 millionThis is the highest single-day inflow since 25 February and the sixth largest single-day inflow in 2026. Specifically, BlackRock's IBIT lead, with net inflows of about $182 million, Fidelity FBTC followed closely by about $147 million, ARK 21 Shares ARKB about $119 million, and most of the remaining ETFs were recorded as being in or even。

In a letter from Platform X, Eric Balchunas, a senior analyst at Bloomberg ETF, stated that the influx of American “baby tide generation” investors, under pressure from the market environment and with a high incidence of macro-profits, had invested heavily in the spot of Bitcoin ETF, a flow that had partly filled the funding gap since the beginning of the year。

Encrypted Market View

Bloomberg Analyst: Unless Bitcoin recovers $75,000, the risk of falling to a lower point remains

According to Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone, unless Bitcoin recovers $75,000, the risk of falling to a lower point remains; if current prices are not stable at over $70,000, they will face a new round of reversal pressure after short-term holders lose confidence。

Glassnode: Bitcoin has $72,000 above resistance and higher downside risk if kinetic energy decreases

Glassnode states that there is currently a $72,000 attachment of resistance above bitcoin, while the support below is relatively thin, and there is still a risk in the lower price if the energy rises. In addition, the rebound has improved, spot demand has stabilized and loss pressure has decreased significantly. However, participation remains weak on the exchange, ETF and chain dimensions, suggesting that market confidence has not yet been fully restored。

Analyst Wedson: Bitcoin or down to $54,000 over the next five months

Encrypted market analyst Wedson indicates that the 720-day Tactical Bull-Bear Security Index of Bitcoin has fallen into extreme viewing space, indicating that long-term market fears may be coming to an end, and that historically low levels of such indicators are often accompanied by so-called “shakeout”, followed by a more robust rebound of bitcoin, for example, when the indicator was at a low level in 2022, where it had fallen by more than 20 per cent over the TTs; and in 2018, where it fell by about 50 per cent。

Wedson warns that Bitcoin may experience a sharp fall of about $15,000 over the next five months, which means that the BTC may be able to travel down from current prices to about $54,000 in price areas, so $50,000-55,000 may be a key support area for bitcoin. Despite this, recent large bitegy purchases of absorbent parts of bitcoin may limit downspace and make extreme sighting scenarios not necessarily complete。

Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin or down by $0.06 million

Arthur Hayes, in Coin Stores podcasts, stated that the last dollar would not be invested in bitcoin at this time, as the Fed had not yet been forced to expand its liquidity and believed that tariff policies would lead to inflation and possibly to a shift in capital controls in the United States, which would be a huge liquidity catalyst for bitcoin。

Arthur Hayes maintained a long-term target price of between $250,000 and $750,000 for the current cycle, but warned that, if the conflict between the United States and Iraq persisted, the Bitcoin could fall by $60,000 in the short term。

Greeks.live: Markets are beginning to become dissensitized to Trump, and there is little consensus in the market and are waiting。

Greeks.live indicates that the market is starting to become dissensitized with Trump, and that there has been a marked decrease in the implicit rate of movement of Bitcoin compared to the previous week. Although Trump is bound to have an impact on the market next week, whatever it says, even if it is clear that the Sky Force is not moving away from market expectations, there is now a tumultuous change in the distribution of Skew and the deal, and there is little consensus in the market。