Saylor bitcoin holds more than Belet, and how does the StRC "bitcoin financing machine" work

Original title: "Bitcoin holds more than Belet, how does the STRC become Strategy's "Money Printer 2.0"
Source: Deepwater TechFlow

The financial capacity is not equal to the path of implementationWhether or not bitcoin works is the real variable。

On April 20th, Saylor sent a screenshot of a Bitcoin holder with three words: "Think Even Bigger."

24 hours later, the answer was 34,164 bitcoins, $2.54 billion, at an average purchase price of $74,395 per item. The third largest deal in history, the biggest buy since this year。

More importantly, another figure: 815,061。

It's Strategy as of April 19th, the bitcoin hold. And on the other side of the Atlantic, the IBIT of Beled, the world's largest spot of bitcoin ETF holds 802,823。

Saylor's company, Bitcoin, officially exceeded Belet。

Two logics, two machines

To understand the weight of the matter, it is necessary to find out how the two institutions have accumulated bitcoin。

BELAID'S IBIT IS A PUMP. IT DRAWS IN DIASPORA AND INSTITUTIONAL FUNDS FROM THE MARKET TO THE PURCHASING POWER OF BITCOIN. IN THE PAST WEEK, IBIT NET INFLOWS AMOUNTED TO ABOUT $900 MILLION, CORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 12,000 NEW BITCOINS. THE CEILING OF THIS MECHANISM IS MARKET SENTIMENT, THE INFLUX OF FUNDS IN THE CATTLE MARKET, THE RUNAWAY FUNDS IN THE BEAR CITY, AND THE HOLDING OF IBIT FOLLOWING THE TIDE。

Strategy is another thing. It does not wait for money to come in, it goes out to finance money。

THIS PURCHASE OF $254 BILLION, THE FINANCING STRUCTURE IS BROKEN DOWN: 21,795,389 STRC PRIORITY SHARES, WITH CASH OF $2,176 MILLION; AND 2,165,000 COMMON UNITS, WITH CASH OF $366 MILLION。

85% FROM STRC, 15% FROM MSTR GENERAL。

What is the STRC: Saylor's "Postprinter 2.0"

Strategy's history of bitcoin can be divided into two times。

Between 2020 and 2024, debt was transferred. Dealing with institutional investors with zero or low-interest swaps, paying for bitcoin, and gambling that bitcoin prices are higher than debt costs. The system works, but there is a ceiling, a debt transfer has a maturity date, and each issue looks at the window period, and once the interest rate environment deteriorates, space shrinks. The more fundamental problem is that the creditors that can be converted are the creditors, not the Bitcoin believers, who ultimately have to get the principal back。

At the end of 2025, Strategy launched STRC, a permanent priority, fixed face value of $100, floating dividends. The word "permanent" was key, with no maturity date, no need for repayment and only continued payment of dividends. Saylor himself called it an iPhone moment for the company。

Here's how it works:

Strategy issues STRC on the market at $100 per share. The buyer got a promise:A floating dividend is obtained each year and the rate will be adjusted to the market price dynamics of the STRC, with the goal of keeping the STRC anchor close to $100. Strategy gets the money, buys all the bitcoin。

There's a design for an automatic pressure valve. STRC collapsed at $100, meaning that the market felt that the current dividends were not attractive, and Strategy increased the dividends to pull back the price; and STRC increased by $100, meaning that demand was overheated, Strategy lowered the dividends and suppressed the premium. Prices are always caught near the face value by the scissors, and Strategy's distribution window remains open。

LAST WEEK, THE SRC SINGLE-DAY TRADE PEAKED AT $750 MILLION AND AVERAGED OVER $300 MILLION A DAY, ALMOST BECOMING THE MOST LIQUID PREFERRED SHARE OF THE UNITED STATES MARKET. BUT MOBILITY IS ONLY SURFACE, AND THE REAL DRIVING FORCE OF THIS MACHINE IS THREE CONDITIONS THAT CAN ONLY BE SUSTAINED IF IT IS ESTABLISHED SIMULTANEOUSLY。

CONDITION 1: STRC MUST BE MAINTAINED AT A NOMINAL VALUE OF $100。

This is the physical switch for the entire system. Strategy only issues new shares on its own initiative when the STRC price equals $100, which is below nominal value, meaning that Strategy sells its financing capacity at a discount, which is equivalent to the purchase of bitcoin at a discount, and the cost structure deteriorates immediately。

In March of this year, STRC dropped face value for three consecutive days. The wheel didn't stop, but Strategy was forced to raise the dividends and use higher financing costs to bring back the price。

Condition 2: The market net ratio (mNAV) for MSTR ordinary shares must be more than 1 times higher。

The ultimate goal of Strategy is not to buy bitcoin, but to increase "the amount of bitcoin per share"。

When the market value of MSTR is higher than the market value of its hold of bitcoin (mNAV & gt; 1), it is cost-effective to issue ordinary shares for bitcoin, with a premium of paper for in-kind and an increase in the amount of bitcoin per share, benefiting existing shareholders. But once mNAV falls, the logic is completely reversed: the general distribution stock becomes at a discount clearing, each share falls a little bit of bitcoin, and the dilution becomes real harm. After this purchase announcement, MSTR actually fell by 2.5%, and mNAV was just in the vicinity of 1.0, which is the most sensitive reading of the machine。

Condition three: Bitcoin prices cannot continue to fall。

This is the most fundamental condition and the most difficult variable。

Strategy ' s balance sheet consists almost entirely of bitcoin, with $6,156 million in purchase costs and approximately a profit/loss line for the current warehouse。

Once the price of bitcoin has been below the average price for a long time, $75,527, two things will happen simultaneously: Strategy’s net asset shrinks, and the credit endorsement of STRC gets thinner, and investors question the company’s ability to pay dividends on a sustainable basis。

To put it more bluntly, the machine needs a bitcoin price at a level that convinces the market that "Strategy's assets cover its liabilities"。

The report of the Capital Market Analysis Agency NYDIG describes this structure as a self-enhanced closed ring: the SRC maintains face value Strategy financing for bitcoin balance sheet expansion and continues to issue stronger SRC credit endorsements. When all three conditions are in place, the wheels turn faster. When any condition is relaxed, the wheel does not stop immediately, but begins to consume reserves, raise dividends, reduce ordinary stock issuances, rely on surplus financing, and gamble back bitcoin prices before the buffer is exhausted。

This time, 25.4 billion dollars was purchased and the main funds were collected and deployed on Monday and Tuesday. Two days, $2.5 billion, from distribution to single. In the open market, there is little precedent for this pace. This in itself is a proof of the health of the wheel, and when all three conditions are in place, the machine can operate faster than anyone can imagine。

Problem in the air

The machine is not risk-free and the form of risk is more subtle than most people think。

BitMEX Research has stated in its report that the risk associated with STRC is “well greater than short-term United States debt”, but more precisely it is stated that the risk of STRC is not whether Strategy will default, but who will bear the loss in the event of a speed failure on the ship。

THE ANSWER IS STRC HOLDER。Strategy can reduce dividends without triggering legal default, which is the fundamental difference between permanent preferential shares and bonds. The dividends shrink, the STRC falls the face value, investors lose their books, but Strategy is not broke。

This structure directs market pressure to investors rather than issuers. This is the cleverness of Saylor and the reason why he is called a "financial engineer" and not just a "bitcoin believer."。

Saylor's current calculations are:BY THE END OF 2026, A MILLION BITCOINS HAD BEEN ACCUMULATED. HE STILL HAS ABOUT 185,000 GAPS. THIS TARGET IS NOT REMOTE IN TERMS OF FINANCING CAPACITY, WITH THE ADDITION OF THE EXISTING STRC ISSUANCES (APPROXIMATELY US$ 19.46 BILLION) AND THE MSTR GENERAL SHARE (APPROXIMATELY US$ 26.7 BILLION)。

However, the financing capacity does not equal the implementation path. Whether or not bitcoin works is the real variable。

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