Fed hearing "More than real": Walsh sends a heart pill for encryption without talking about interest rates

Original Odaily Daily Planet@OdailyChinaI'm not sure

Author |Golem@web3 golemI'm not sure



On the evening of Beijing time, April 21, at 10 p.m., Kevin Walsh, nominated by the Fed Chairman, attended the Senate Banking Commission's confirmation hearing and was questioned by the Committee, according to the Wall Street JournalCoverageThis covers his commitment to monetary policy, the Fed ' s independence, etc。

At the hearing, faced with the Fed’s independence, Walsh claimed that he would be independent of Trump, who had never asked him to commit himself to any particular interest rate decision and further argued that he would never agree to it, even if Trump did. In addition to such statements, Walsh refrained from answering the issues related to Trump. In terms of monetary policy, the Federal Reserve institutions were bitterly criticized by Walsh for the need for institutional change in policy formulation, but few statements were made on specific monetary policy, referring only to the need for the Federal Reserve to gradually and cautiously reduce its balance sheets, and not to a clear interest rate reduction。

It's probably what Walsh intended to do. According to the opening statement received in advance by Bloomberg, although Walsh's prep testimony is nearly 2,000 wordsI don't knowFar above the level of 850 to 900 words at the first hearing of Powell and former President Jerome, the direction of monetary policy is almost minimal. This move by Walsh is also consistent with its consistent assertion that the Fed officials should not comment in advance on interest rates。

However, it may be disappointing for investors interested in the hearing to expect anything. Because, in terms of content and results, the substance of the hearing was not significant, and the oppo columnist John Authers qualified it as a political performance before the hearingUltimately, the successful confirmation of Walsh ' s nomination by the Senate will depend on an off-site political game, rather than on anything that Walsh says on stage。

The stubborn Trump and the innocent Walsh

Previously, the Odaily Daily newspaper analysed that the important point of this hearing was that it might have decided that Powell would be left behind after his term of office on 15 May, because, without confirmation of his nomination by the Senate this time, Powell would most likely remain the Interim Federal Reserve Chairman after his term of office。(Refer to:Powell's odds of staying up to 98 percentI'm not sure

The result, however, is that after this hearing, the market is still unable to judge whether Walsh’s Federal Reserve Chairman’s nomination will be confirmed by the Senate as scheduled, because Tom Tillis, the leading figure who blocked Walsh’s nomination, did not even have an effective dialogue with Walsh。

Thom Tillis had previously publicly stated that if Trump did not abandon the investigation into Powell, he would not have supported the transfer of Walsh ' s nomination process to the Senate for a plenary vote. During the hearing on April 21, Thom Tillis did not even question Walsh, but showed the reasonableness of the cost overrun in the Fed's renovation. Finally, he stated that his grievances were not directed at Walsh, that he was “excellent and impeccable”, but that he still needed to conclude the investigation to support his confirmation。

So the content of the hearing is no longer decisiveWhether or not Trump finally lost Powell as scheduled will depend on whether the Senate has confirmed Walsh's nomination in a timely manner and whether Walsh's nomination has succeeded in returning to Trump's willingness to abandon Powell's investigation。

April 21st, Trump's latestInterviewsThe Fed and interest rates were also addressed. He indicated that he would be disappointed if the new Federal Reserve Chairman (Wosh) did not rapidly reduce interest rates, but it was also important to identify the reasons for the cost overrun in the Federal Reserve building. To urge the New Federal Reserve Chairman, Walsh, to reduce interest rates and investigate Powell was a parallel, and Trump did not mean to compromise。

As John Authers put it, the real game took place outside the hearing, and Walsh was even “wrongly injured”. Either Thom Tillis gives up, or Walsh convinces Trump to abandon his investigation into Powell and let him take over the Fed soon. Walsh's father-in-law, Ronald Steven Lauder, is the sole heir to the international make-up company Yaslande, and he is a Republican gold lord and university student in Trump, so if he really wanted to run the Fed this morning, he might be able to convince Trump to drop the investigation。

Otherwise, if this impasse continues until the end of Powell's term, Trump chooses to dismiss Powell to resolve it, as the Daily Odaily has done before, and it may have been Powell who prevailed. It's worth mentioningOdaily SeerMonitor, PolymarketChairman of the Federal Reserve of the United States of AmericaThe probability is still 2%, but if you look closely at the settlement rules of the contract for the event, you'll find out that it's not enoughIf Powell's resignation/removement is announced before the market end date, the market will be immediately closed as “Yes”, regardless of when the announced resignation/removement takes effect。

The market settlement rules for Powell's retirement as Chairman of the Federal Reserve after his term of office

In other words, as long as Trump announced the dismissal of Powell, the matter would be settled. While Powell may institute proceedings to give legal effect to the President's removal during the proceedings, the proceedings are also a lengthy process, so that the rule “whether or not the announced resignation/dismissal takes effect, the market is immediately closed to Yes” and becomes an empty place。(Odaily Note: This is a personal judgement of the author and does not constitute any recommendation)

Walsh: Digital assets are part of US financial services

However, for the encryption industry, the content of this hearing is somewhat material. The previous market disclosure of Walsh ' s possession of a range of assets such as encrypted currency, Polymarket and SpaceX stocks was seen as an expression of Walsh ' s friendly attitude towards the encryption industry。

During the hearing, during the questioning of his over $100 million financial disclosure and potential conflict of interest, Walsh promised to strip off the assets before taking office if the nomination was approved, but further indicated that digital assets were part of the United States financial service, confirming the legitimacy and importance of the encryption industry in the United States. It's just a simple mentionBut it is absolutely good news that a person who is about to take over the most powerful position in the global economy has shown himself to be a well-encrypted friend。