I. Ceasefire game: the Strait of HormuzOpen with Unopen

In April 2026, the fate of the Strait of Hormuz once again became a central variable for destabilizing global risk assets. On 9 April, the two-week interim ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iraq entered into force, and the global market reacted with optimism at the first moment: Brent crude oil suffered a sharp setback from its high position, Bitcoin once exceeded $71,000 and $427 million in encrypted currency was forcibly liquidated within 48 hours. However, the "honeymoon period" of the ceasefire lasted only a few hours。

There are fundamental differences on the content of the ceasefire agreement. Trump government announcedThe "full opening" of the Strait of Hormuz; for its part, the Iranian side has only committed to "coordination with the Iranian armed forces" for the movement of vessels, with the daily transit of some 10 vessels limited to more than 130 traffic per day before the war and less than 8 per cent recovery. Hundreds of ships remain in the area and are in de facto state of siege。

Of even greater concern, Iran is pushing forward with the collection of passing ships“Travel fees”, at a rate of approximately $1 per barrel of oil, are required to be paid in encrypted currency. This initiative not only reshapes the global energy transport cost structure, but also means that bitcoin is embedded in the international energy trade settlement system in an unprecedented manner. Pangia Policy Analyst Terry Haynes's assessment is blood: "Whether or not we reach an agreement, this will become a new normal."

On 12 April, the third round of talks in Islamabad broke down and the Americans and the Americans left the scene. As a result, bitcoin fell near $69,000 and the total market value of the encrypted market evaporated over $100 billion a day. However, there was a new turn of events on 17 April, when Bitcoin rose to a high level of $78,000, and nearly 170,000 people burst into hot swings, bringing the total amount liquidated to over $700 million, fully revealing the high leverage and volatility of the current market。

On 21 April, Iran announced that it would send representatives to the second round of talks, with the subsequent rebound of Bitcoin over $76,000. However, as the 22 April ceasefire drew near, both sides sent strong signals: The spokesman for the Iranian Ministry of Defence stressed that openness was "temporary" and the commander of the United States Central Command, Cooper, stated that the blockade would "continue until the President ordered its lifting". The US stock fell sharply, pointing to a drop of more than 290 points, and the encryption market was simultaneously under pressure. The continuation of the ceasefire agreement will be the most critical external variable of the encrypted market in the coming weeks。

II. THE FEDERAL FEDERATION FOR CERTAIN: THE PROBLEMS OF POLICY INDEPENDENCE"Trump Time."

In April 2026, the Federal Reserve was experiencing the most complex moments of political pressure in modern history. On 15 April, Trump made it clear that Powell would be "forced" to be removed if he did not voluntarily leave after the expiry of his term in May. This statement directly impacted the expectations of the market regarding the independence of the Fed ' s policy, with the short-line dollar index softening and the gold rising to $4,800 per ounce。

KevinA hearing on the nomination of the Chairman of the Federal Reserve of Walsh took place on 21 April. Walsh holds more than $100 million in fund investments and is considered to be more inclined to match the Trump interest rate reduction claims. Senator Tilis announced that the nomination would be blocked on the condition that "the criminal investigation against Powell be withdrawn", which would cast a political shadow over the entire succession process。

Policy differences within the Fed are equally evident. hawk Daley warned that if the Middle East energy shock pushes inflation further, interest rates will not be ruled out; the Chairman of the Chicago Federal Reserve, Goulsby, suggested that the rate reduction schedule could be postponed toIn 2027, Dove Councillor Milan argued that the interest rate should be reduced three to four times this year, "there is no reason to wait." The neutral Williams said that the current policy was "well-positioned" and that there was no need to rush. The April brown paper of the Federal Reserve shows that most jurisdictions have sustained moderate and moderate economic growth, but energy and fuel costs have increased “largely” in all 12 jurisdictions, and businesses have generally reduced recruitment and capital spending。

In terms of market pricing, the U.S. Bank SurveyFifty-eight per cent of institutional investors still expect the Fed to reduce interest rates within 12 months; CME Fedwatch shows that the probability of falling interest rates in September has risen from 40 per cent at the end of March to around 55 per cent. For encrypted assets, the tension pattern of "expected interest-rate reductions but real austerity" means that the narrative of liquidity repair still exists, but the landing time is much slower than previously anticipated. Uncertainty about the change in the leadership of the Fed will make the process variable。

Institutional acceleration: Morgan StanleyTHE HISTORIC SIGNIFICANCE OF MSBT

On 8 April, Morgan Stanley officially listed Bitcoin ETF (MSBT) in NYSE Arca as a stand-alone Bitcoin ETF product issued by the United States ' first major commercial bank at a rate of only 0.14 per cent, creating a new lower mainstream bitcoin ETF rate. This event marked the formal incorporation of Bitcoin into its standardized product system at the traditional Wall Street power core。

MSBT FIRST-DAY TRANSACTIONS RESULTED IN AN INFLOW OF $34 MILLION, WHICH WAS RANKED BY BLOOMBERG ETF ANALYSTS AS THE FIRST 1 PER CENT OF ETF DISTRIBUTION. AS AT 17 APRIL, MSBT HAD ACHIEVED A NET INFLOW OF EIGHT CONSECUTIVE TRADING DAYS, WITH CUMULATIVE WITHDRAWALS EXCEEDING $133 MILLION, WITH A DAILY AVERAGE NET INFLOW OF APPROXIMATELY $16.6 MILLION. MORGAN STANLEY HAS APPROXIMATELY 16,000 WEALTH MANAGEMENT ADVISERS COVERING A 9.3 TRILLION-DOLLAR CLIENT BASE OF MANAGED ASSETS, AND BLOOMBERG ANALYSTS PREDICT THAT THE FIRST YEAR OF AUM WILL REACH $5 BILLION。

THE SUCCESS OF MSBT IS THE PRODUCT OF MULTIPLE STRUCTURAL FORCES. SINCE ITS LISTING IN JANUARY 2024, BELED IBIT HAS ATTRACTED CUMULATIVELY OVER $100 BILLION IN ASSET MANAGEMENT, DEMONSTRATING THE REAL AND CONSIDERABLE DEMAND FOR BITCOIN ETF AT THE INSTITUTIONAL LEVEL AND PROVIDING A MARKET VALIDATION FOR THOSE LATER. MORGAN STANLEY HAS A MATURE WEALTH MANAGEMENT DISTRIBUTION NETWORK, WHICH ESSENTIALLY OPENS UP AN ENTIRELY NEW DISTRIBUTION CHANNEL THAT IS COMPLETELY DIFFERENT FROM THAT OF BELED CLIENTS. IN TERMS OF THE REGULATORY ENVIRONMENT, THERE IS A GROWING TREND TOWARDS THE APPROVAL BY THE SEC OF A NUMBER OF BANKING INSTITUTIONS TO PARTICIPATE IN THE BITCOIN ETF MARKET, WITH A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE LIKELIHOOD OF SIMILAR PRODUCT LAYOUTS IN THE FOLLOW-UP MOVEMENTS SUCH AS GOLDMAN SACHS AND CITIGROUPS。

The chain data also confirm the acceleration of the institutionalization process. HoldMore than 10,000 large wallet addresses of bitcoin were net-inflowed at the beginning of April, the second time in 2026; the bitcoin market financing rate was even to a small negative value, confirming the current pattern of spot-driven rather than leverage speculation, conveying the typical agency-led market character of "low-accumulation and cautious-based households"。

However, the situation in the Taifeng is in stark contrast to the bitcoin。Net outflows continued to be recorded in April with the ETF available at the Taifeng, and nearly $70 million per week was recorded in Beled ETHA in a given week, at a price of between $2,100 and $2,400. According to CryptoQuant, more than 75 per cent of the Ether Mills held by the Currency Exchange are leveraged, a pattern of high-leveraging and financial outflows that makes the Ether Mills more vulnerable to the pressure of consecutive liquidations when market sentiment changes. Bitcoin and Etherport continue to divide institutional flows, reflecting two distinct asset positioning paths - The former is becoming "digital gold", while the latter is still in the long process of building "digital asset technology infrastructure"。

IV. BitcoinTwo-drive pricing: identification of risk assets with scarce assets

Market developments in April provided an extremely valuable stress test for understanding the nature of the Bitcoin assets. When negotiations broke down between the United States and the United States on 12 April, Bitcoin collapsed in parallel with NASDAQ; when news of the ceasefire on 9 April came, Bitcoin rebounded with the fall of crude oil. This series of highly relevant price linkages again confirms that bitcoin is still more like a "risk asset" than a "risk avoidance asset" at this stage. However, increasing to a monthly dimension, bitcoin shows remarkable resilience divisions over traditional risk assets。

As atIN MID-APRIL, BITCOIN EXPERIENCED A CUMULATIVE INCREASE OF ABOUT 3 TO 5 PER CENT DURING THE MONTH, WHILE THE NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX FELL BY MORE THAN 3 PER CENT DURING THE SAME PERIOD, WITH THE SAME WEAKNESS OF THE STANDARD 500 INDEX. DURING THE CURRENT ROUND OF GEOPOLITICAL SHOCKS, THE PRICE OF GOLD FELL SHARPLY FROM A HIGH OF $4,800, FALLING BY $4,780 PER OUNCE, WHILE BITCOIN, DESPITE SEVERAL LARGE FLUCTUATIONS, REMAINED ABOVE THE INITIAL QUARTERLY LEVEL. THIS CONTRAST INDICATES THAT, WHILE BITCOIN IS NOT YET A CORPORATE CONSENSUS RISK AVOIDANCE TOOL, ITS SUPPLY AND DEMAND STRUCTURE HAS BEEN UNDERPINNED BY THE DEEPENING OF THE ETF INSTITUTIONALIZATION PROCESS AS DISTINCT FROM TRADITIONAL RISK ASSETS。

Technically, bitcoin isIN APRIL, THE TYPICAL "INTER-SECTION SHOCK PLUS DIRECTIONAL TEST" FEATURE. BETWEEN $62,000 AND $75,000 CONSTITUTE CORE FLUCTUATIONS THAT HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED FOR ABOUT TWO MONTHS, WITH $62,000 BELOW CORRESPONDING TO THE SUPPORT OF THE TWO TESTS CONDUCTED SINCE FEBRUARY; AND $75,000 ABOVE REPRESENTS AN UPHILL ZONE WHERE THE INCREASE HAS BEEN SUPPRESSED SEVERAL TIMES. ACCORDING TO THE STRUCTURE OF THE MEDIAN LINE, IN NOVEMBER 2025, 50 AND 200 EMA DIED, INDICATING THAT THE MEDIUM-TERM TREND IS STILL STRUCTURALLY DOWNHILL. SINCE APRIL, HOWEVER, BITCOIN VOLATILITY HAS FALLEN TO ITS LOWEST LEVEL OF TWO MONTHS, AND THIS LOW VOLATILITY TENDS TO PORTEND GREATER DIRECTIONAL VOLATILITY AND INVESTORS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR A TWO-WAY RESPONSE。

More broadly, Iran ' s Bitcoin pass-through policy has far-reaching structural implications. The requirement to pay tolls in the Strait of Hormuz in encrypted currency effectively embeds bitcoin into the settlement system for global trade in bulk commodities, albeit on a limited scale. If this precedent is maintained, it will be in bitcoin. FromTHE LONG-TERM DRIVING EFFECT OF THE EVOLUTION OF "SPECULATION ASSETS" TOWARDS "SETTLEMENT TOOLS" MAY OUTWEIGH THE IMPACT OF ANY SINGLE-AGENCY ETF PRODUCT。

Taken together, the current pricing logic of bitcoin has evolved from a purely macro-driven process to one of the most important onesTHE THREE ELEMENTS OF "MACRO LIQUIDITY EXPECTATIONS + INSTITUTIONAL SUPPLY AND DEMAND STRUCTURE + GEOPOLITICAL RISK PREMIUM" ARE CO-LED BY A COMPLEX PRICING SYSTEM. SHORT-TERM PRICES ARE HIGHLY SENSITIVE TO MACRO EVENTS, BUT AT THE BOTTOM IN THE MEDIUM TERM THEY ARE BEING RAISED BY THE PERSISTENT INHALING BEHAVIOUR OF INSTITUTIONS. THE EFFECTS OF HALVING ARE STILL SLOWLY BEING RELEASED, AND THE REDUCTION OF SUPPLY AFTER HALVING AND THE GROWING DEMAND FOR ETF CHANNELS CONSTITUTE THE "HIDDEN FLOOR" OF THE BITCOIN MACRO-PRICING LOGIC。

 

V. Outlook: Three scenarios and key observations

The combined geopolitical, monetary and institutional flows are three main lines, and the current encrypted market may evolve along the following three scenarios。

Scenario one: the ceasefire continues and the Federal Reserve moves to a better-looking location. Bitcoin challenges$80,000. IF THE CEASEFIRE AGREEMENT OF 22 APRIL WAS SUCCESSFULLY RENEWED AND THE NEGOTIATIONS BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES AND IRAQ ENTERED THE FORMAL FRAMEWORK, TRAFFIC IN THE STRAITS OF HORMUZ WAS GRADUALLY RESTORED TO MORE THAN 50 PER CENT BEFORE THE WAR; AND WHEN THE DOVE SIGNAL WAS SUCCESSFULLY CONFIRMED AND RELEASED BY THE SENATE, THE MARKET WAS EXPECTED TO REVISE THE RATE OF INTEREST REDUCTION IN 2026 FROM "0 TO " 1 " TO " 2 TO " 3 " AND THE LIQUIDITY NARRATIVE WAS REACTIVATED. IN THIS SCENARIO, BITCOIN IS EXPECTED TO TEST $80,000 IN THE SHORT TERM, AND CHASE MORGAN EVEN PROVIDES A LONG-TERM TARGET RANGE OF $170,000 TO $240,000 BASED ON THE PIBONACCI EXPANSION. CORE OBSERVATION INDICATORS FOR THIS SCENARIO INCLUDE THE TIMING OF THE CEASEFIRE RENEWAL ANNOUNCEMENT, THE RESULTS OF THE SENATE VOTE ON WALSH, AND WEEKLY FINANCIAL FLOWS TO BELED IBIT AND MORGAN STANLEY MSBT。

Scenario two: a breakdown of the ceasefire, renewed heat, Bitcoin retreating to$65,000 between. If the parties fail to reach a consensus on the extension after the end of the ceasefire, Iran announces the restoration of the Strait of Hormuz blockade, the return of oil prices between $110 and $120 and the expected sharp rise in global inflation. The Fed had been forced to send stronger signals to maintain high interest rates, and the market had completely cleared the price of the 2026 interest rate reduction. Bitcoin could fall to US$ 70,000, testing between US$ 65,000 and US$ 62,000, and passive liquidation of high leverage positions could trigger short-term liquidity crises. This scenario should focus on the number of tankers leaving the port of Dubai, the global tanker freight rate and whether the retail price of gasoline in the United States is again at a critical psychological level of $4 per gallon。

Scenario three: the geodesic subsides but stagnating shadows continue to suppress and bitcoin sustains inter-zone shocks. If the ceasefire continues and the core inflation persists, the Fed will postpone its first interest rate reduction untilEVEN LATER IN SEPTEMBER, LIQUIDITY REPRESSION WOULD BE COUNTERBALANCED BY IMPROVED RISK PREFERENCES ASSOCIATED WITH GEO-DIFFIC. THE MOST LIKELY MOVEMENT OF BITCOIN IS TO SUSTAIN A BROAD-BAND SHOCK OF $62,000 TO $78,000, WITH FLUCTUATIONS NARROWING AND WAITING FOR THE NEXT CATALYST. FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS WITH MEDIUM- AND LONG-TERM LAYOUTS, THE SITUATION IS RATHER A RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE WINDOW FOR CONSTRUCTION: THE SUB-DISTRICTS PROVIDE CLEAR ACCESS, WHILE THE CONTINUOUS INFLUX OF ETF CHANNELS PROVIDES THE UP-FRONT OF THE ZONE。

In addition to the three scenarios, the subsequent evolution of Iran ' s Bitcoin pass-through policy is a structural variable that deserves separate attention. If this policy is emulated by other sanctioned countries, it will create an over-anticipated picture of the use of Bitcoin in real global trade settlements, which may give rise to an independent macro-spectrum"bitcoin settlement needs" line. This potential variable has not yet been fully factored into the mainstream pricing logic and deserves continuous follow-up。

VI. CONCLUSION: STANDING AT THE COMMON OF INSTITUTIONAL AND GEOGRAPHY

IN APRIL 2026, THE ENCRYPTION MARKET WAS AT A HISTORIC CROSSROADS. THE SEQUENTIAL ENTRY OF PRODUCTS FROM INSTITUTIONS SUCH AS MORGAN STANLEY MSBT MARKED THE PROFOUND EVOLUTION OF BITCOIN'S BASE-HOLDER STRUCTURE FROM "ENCRYPTED ORIGINAL" TO "GLOBAL MAINSTREAM" AND GAVE BITCOIN UNPRECEDENTED PRICE BASE SUPPORT AND LEGITIMACY ENDORSEMENT. AT THE SAME TIME, HOWEVER, THE FRAGILITY OF THE US-IRAQ CEASEFIRE AGREEMENT AND THE POLITICAL PRESSURES ON THE FED’S POLICY INDEPENDENCE HAVE LEFT THE SHORT-TERM MACRO-ENVIRONMENT WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY, AND ANY SINGLE EVENT COULD TRIGGER SHARP MARKET FLUCTUATIONS。

The key to understanding the encryption market at this stage is to distinguish"NOISE" WITH "SIGN." THE BACK AND FORTH OF GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS, THE FALSITY OF FED OFFICIALS, THE LARGE-SCALE, SINGLE-DAY CLEARING DATA ARE ESSENTIALLY NOISE. THEY AFFECT PRICES IN THE SHORT TERM, BUT THEY CANNOT CHANGE THE MEDIUM-TERM DIRECTION OF THE STRUCTURAL SIGNAL OF INSTITUTIONAL ACCELERATION. INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS ARE VOTING IN ACTION: WHETHER OR NOT THE CEASEFIRE AGREEMENT CONTINUES, AND WHETHER OR NOT POWELL CONTINUES TO SERVE, THE DATA ON NET INFLOWS OF REAL BITCOIN ETF MAINTAIN A HIGH DEGREE OF STABILITY, SUGGESTING THAT THE AGENCY'S LONG-TERM ALLOCATION LOGIC DOES NOT DEPEND ON THE PARTICULAR RESULTS OF A MACRO VARIABLE。

For investors seeking certainty in this complex environment, the most important discipline is that short-term geo-incidents are not used as a single basis for judgement of warehouse entry and exit, but rather are incorporated into the broader contextIntegrated assessment in the framework of "Institutional Flows + Macro Liquidity Expectations". Long-term support in the vicinity of $62,000 bitcoin has an adequate fundamental base, while a breakthrough of $80,000 requires a combination of geo-, monetary and institutional dimensions to provide positive catalytic support. Until all three conditions are met at the same time, patience and silo elasticity will be at the core of the current strategy of crossing fluctuations. The fog of the geology will eventually fade away, the institutions will not rest in their footsteps, and the historic leap of bitcoin is becoming a reality at a visible rate。