How did tens of billions of dollars be bought after SpaceX entered the index on 26 June? Is SpaceX gonna blow up

By SoSoValue Research



If you open any of the open software or trade forums now, it's probably the same type of post:

"SPCX IS GOING INTO NASDAQ 100, AND TENS OF BILLIONS OF PASSIVE FUNDS ARE GOING TO CARRY THE PALANQUIN. CAN WE AMBUSH A WAVE?"

"On July 6, it will enter into force, and will that day blow up 20 points?"

As of the time of issue, according to the decentrization of the RWA Asset Trading Platform SoDEX.com, SpaceX ($SPCX) has been running at a contract price of around $150. The total market value of a company that has not been officially indexed has reached $2 trillion in advance, which is the magic of the game。

If you start thinking about these things, you're already thinking more than 70% of traders. But the truth could make you look bad -- the multi-billion dollar billIt's not going to happen on the day of entryI don't know. The picture you imagined of "the big dealer buys" never existed in a Wall Street script。

Today, in this article, we come to the seemingly simple matter of “indicators”, which is completely shattered. You'll find that behind this is a well-structured, multi-layered pattern of mobility, and if you don't understand the rules of the game, you'll probably change from a "carrier" to a "taggerman."。

One, what you think of the "master" doesn't exist

This is usually the case in the mind:

JULY 6TH, 09:30, NASDAQ BELLS. AT THE BEHEST OF A MULTI-BILLION-DOLLAR “INDICATIVE FUND MASTERS”, TRADERS KNOCK BACK ON THE CAR, A DAILY BILL GOES STRAIGHT TO THE MARKET, AND THE SPCX SHARE PRICE IS RAISED STRAIGHT UP。

It's burning. Very hot blood. But not at all。

In reality, the billions of dollars are scattered among hundreds of fund companies。& nbsp; beled, pioneer, dow, each manages funds that track different indices. there was no conspiracy between them, no unified directive, or even rivalry. but their operation will be synchronized at some point, not because of who's in command, but because they're following the same iron rule:

"Stalk error minimization"。

THE PASSIVE FUND KPI, NOT “HOW MUCH IT EARNS”, BUT “HOW MUCH IS DIFFERENT FROM THE INDEX”. IT'S NOT GOOD TO BUY CHEAP, IT'S BAD. AS LONG AS THE TRANSACTION PRICE IS DIFFERENT FROM THE CLOSING PRICE USED FOR INDEX CALCULATIONS, THERE IS A TRACKING ERROR. THE ERROR IS SO GREAT THAT THE FUND MANAGER TAKES THE BONUS LIGHTLY AND LOSES HIS JOB。

So what these people are most afraid of is "show the wind." Their only wish isPurchase of the purchase on the effective date of the index at as close as possible to the closing priceI don't know. Don't try to be cheap, don't take advantage, do your job like an invisible man。

So the problem is: hundreds of hungry people have to rush into the same supermarket at the same time and grab the same fancy product, and the boss's orders are to--Anyone who buys something expensive, get outI don't know。

Guess what they're gonna do

Two, two indices, two sets of scripts, but never on the last day

This time SpaceX was included in two indices:Russell United States IndexandNASDAQ 100I don't know. Their rules of the game are different, and the pace of purchase is completely different。

Story 1: Russell Index - Last minute of closing

The Russell Index rules are simple and harsh:The adjustment was announced on 26 June and became effective on closing on that day。  no hesitation, no transition period。

The occupant usually thinks that all day on June 26th, the funds that followed Russell went crazy on the market. But if you really look at the time map of the day, you might be disappointed — stock prices may not be as high as they would have been。

Because all the bills were compressed to the moment of closing。

Wall Street has a tool specifically designed for this day, called the “MOC Order” (Market-On-Close, Collection List). Translation is:

"I don't care what the deal is, you have to buy me what I need the moment I gather the bids."

ON RUSSELL’S ANNUAL RESHUFFLE DAY, TENS OF BILLIONS OF DOLLARS OF PASSIVE CAPITAL FROM THE ENTIRE MARKET WILL COME TOGETHER IN THE LAST FEW MINUTES BEFORE CLOSING. THE BID EXCHANGE BETWEEN NCO AND NASDAQ WILL BE SEVERAL TIMES EXPLOSIVE. YOU'VE BEEN STARING AT IT ALL DAY, THINKING NOTHING HAPPENED, ACTUALLYThe real big change of hands has been done in seconds of closing the clockI don't know。

You didn't see the quota because you didn't stare at those seconds。

Script 2: NASDAQ 100 -- A 10-day window for a "legitimate run" Period

NASDAQ rules are different. According to projections, SpaceX willOn June 26th, the rapid integration was announced, and on July 6th it came into forceI don't know. In the middle of this 10 days is the best stage of the whole game。

Many of them will struggle: will they announce their purchase on that day, or will they wait until the effective date

The answer is:You've got it. Wall Street's got it all figured out, and it's working on real silver。  within 10 days there will be three waves in the market:

Wave one: arbitrage funds — legal “carriers”。

On the day of the announcement, the group began to raise funds. Their logic is so simple: on July 6, tens of billions of passive money had to be bought at no cost, and I'll buy it now, and then we'll collect the bids and throw them over. They're not betting on SpaceX basics, but on "the buying of passive money is hard."。

Second wave: radical index funds。

Fearing that the free-flow drive would be too small on July 6th to buy the full amount of it, they would be able to use algorithms one or two days earlier to break into small sheets and sneak into secondary markets。

Wave three: The worst index fund force。

THEY STRICTLY ADHERE TO THE RULES, LEAVING THE LARGEST PURCHASE PRICE TO BE COLLECTED ON JULY 6TH FOR A ONE-TIME SETTLEMENT WITH MOC AS FAR AS POSSIBLE。

So, the real screenplay for the 10-day window period is:The first few days after the announcement, the arbitrage funds pushed up the stock price; in the middle of the day, the money was stolen in secret; and on the last day, the large forces were able to match the receipt with the arbitrage funds。

And here's the positive conclusion: if you rush in on July 6th and think of passive money to carry the palanquin, you're probably thatThe pick-up guy from the first two wavesI don't know。

Time limit: This is the ultimate decision to “explosive” Boss

The above analysis is based on the basic assumption that there are enough negotiable stocks on the market for you to buy。

But SpaceX just broke that assumption。

IPO ON 12 JUNE, AND LESS THAN A MONTH BETWEEN 26 JUNE AND 6 JULY. IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE TRADITIONAL IPO LOCK-IN FIXED-TERM RULE, THE MAJORITY OF THE STOCK HELD BY THE ORIGINAL SHAREHOLDERS IS LOCKED IN A 180-DAY SALES PERIOD. A “FREE-FLOW DRIVE” THAT IS TRULY FREELY TRADABLE IN SECONDARY MARKETS MAY REPRESENT JUST OVER 10 PER CENT OR EVEN LESS OF TOTAL EQUITY。

Now let's figure out: assuming SpaceX's market value is $2 trillion and 15 per cent free circulation, it's only $30 billion. And the passive funds of NASDAQ 100 are expected to buy between $10.2 billion and $12.7 billion。It's equivalent to eating more than 4% of the free disk in the market。

4% IN A DAY. AND IT'S BEEN ROBBED BY HUNDREDS OF HUNGRY PEOPLE USING THE “NO MATTER WHAT THE PRICE” ORDER。

If all this money is dry, and the bid is collected directly on July 6th, the stock price may not be a few points, but a few dozen spots and even more exaggerated pulses。

So, how do the hungry guys on Wall Street avoid this

The answer might surprise you again:They don't even go to the supermarket。

First way: "Take the back door" big deal

The fund manager will call the sales counter at the investment bank: “Brother, help me find out in private the large-stocked institutions. I made a deal with them out there, and I gave them hundreds of millions of dollars. Don't mess with me at the exchange's open market."

THE BULK OF SUCH OFF-THE-SHELF TRANSACTIONS, WHICH DO NOT GO THROUGH THE CENTRAL SET-UP OF THE EXCHANGE, ARE NEGOTIATED BETWEEN THE PARTIES AND MAY BE SLOWLY DISCLOSED AFTER SEVERAL DAYS. YOU STARE AT THE K-LINE, YOU CAN'T SEE ANYTHING。

Second route: “Trouble” derivatives

It's a more advanced gameProceeds swap agreementsI don't know. In short, you keep holding the shares, nominally you keep them, but I'll take all the profits and losses of future stock prices. Through such financial derivatives arrangements, index funds are perfectly bypassing the legal restrictions of “no-transfer” and the open-door system of exchanges。

THE ULTIMATE TRUTH CAME: THE BILLIONS OF DOLLARS YOU SAW IN THE INDEX BILL, THE VAST MAJORITY OF WHICH DID NOT APPEAR IN THE K-LINE BAR。& nbsp; has been done silently, through large trades and derivatives, outside the “dark pool” and outside the field, which you do not see。

You've been waiting for the signal to go up, but the real smart money is already dark。

IV. A guide to the survival of the diaspora: how does ordinary people get involved

After all this talk about how to play, you must want to know: How am I supposed to get involved

First of all, there is a cruel premise: there is a complete disequilibrium between an ordinary family and an institution on information, tools, access. If you want to bet meat on short lines with the agency, you're less likely to win than a coin. So we're just talking about a relatively robust “mute approach” that doesn't depend on the inside。

Next move: Following the game

Some occupant saw the 26th of June announced their inclusion and felt that the stock price would rise and immediately went in and went up. There is also a greater courage to use derivatives to magnify gains. In such a dramatic game pattern, error of direction is compounded by high leverage, and the crater is only for a moment. You think you're arbitrating, actually fighting bayonets with well-equipped institutions。

Medium: low-momentation, long-line shareholders

The logic is simple: the inclusion of indicators gives rise to a structural demand for passive funding, which is real and long-term. Short-term prices, however, can be significantly reduced by arbitrage and emotion。

If you look at SpaceX in the long term, you might want to wait for the dust to come to an end — for example, one or two weeks after the effective date, when the arbitrage has been delivered, the turnover has returned to normal, stock prices have stabilized, and batch warehouses are considered. We could use leverage when building a warehouse, for exampleSoDEX.com& nbsp; which is now a more popular decentrized RWA trading platform, supports up to 20 leverage investments SpaceX. So you're making company money. Recently, SoDEX also launched a US$SPCX trading event, with an award pool of US$ 100,000 and additional revenue。

The best policy: using options to make the most volatile money - the most robust, the most skilled

Before and after the index is incorporated, the greatest certainty is not whether the stock price rises or falls, but rather, whether the price rises or fallsThere's gonna be a surge in volatilityI don't know. Everyone knew that there was big money coming, but no one could specify which day to concentrate. This uncertainty pushes options prices (right money) to high levels。

This gives the option seller a natural advantage. One of the classic robust strategies is that, when the implied volatility is rising, it will be difficult to find a solution to the problemStranger— and sells a false right to increase and a false right to decline。

YOU DON'T MAKE MONEY IN THE DIRECTION OF STOCK PRICES, IT'S MONEY THAT DOESN'T RISE SO CRAZY OR FALL SO BADLY. AS LONG AS THE STOCK PRICE AT MATURITY IS BETWEEN THE RIGHTS OF THE TWO BUSINESSES, YOU WILL BE ABLE TO EAT THE ENTIRE RIGHT. WHY IS THE STRATEGY RELATIVELY ROBUST? BECAUSE YOU'RE ON THE SIDE OF TIME. THE ULTIMATE PROBABILITY OF ARBITRAGE AND PASSIVE FUNDS WILL BE REPLACED BY OFF-SITE DARK POOLS, AND THE REAL FLUCTUATIONS OF THE K-LINE ARE OFTEN LESS EXAGGERATED THAN REFLECTED IN OPTIONS PRICING. YOU MAKE "PRICING WRONG" MONEY。

Of course, it must be recalled that if there are extreme black swans (such as the sudden release of stock for sale) the seller ' s loss is theoretically unlimited. There must be strict control of the position and a plan to stop the damage。

Core approach

In this game, it is not “how to run with the agency”, but “how to use the rules of the institution to find where their pricing went wrong”. The arbitrage of options fluctuations is one of the relatively high odds。

So, is SpaceX gonna get pulled

You should be able to answer that yourself。

It may rise, but it is not the kind of thing you imagine, “a few dozen points in the instant of the effective day”。

Real behavior, probably after the 26th of JuneThe pre-heatI don't know. arbitrage and hedge funds compete there to push prices to a balanced water level. And on July 6th, you'll probably see a strange picture -- a huge deal, but a big stock price. Because the sellers and sellers were able to match the bid as soon as they gathered their bids。

What you think of as "the great battle" is, in fact, a "cutting ritual" after a fine rehearsal. The hot-blooded scooter had been blown before the war. When you hear voices rushing in, there are only sporadic gunshots to clean up the mess。

So back to the question at the beginning of the article:

How did billions of dollars buy SpaceX

The answer is: they're bought where you can't see, using tools you can't imagine, when you're loose。

On the index table, the most important thing is not to guess size, but to figure out the rules of the game. Otherwise, you don't even know how you lose。