Looking back at the big institutions' price projections for 2025: almost all failures

AuthorZeniumWu said the chain

 

BY THE END OF 2024 AND THE BEGINNING OF 2025, THE ENCRYPTION MARKET WAS HIGHLY CONSISTENT WITH THE NARRATIVE OF THE NEW CYCLE: HALVING THE AFTER-EFFECTS, ETF PROLIFERATION AND INSTITUTIONALIZATION, AS WELL AS MORE FRIENDLY REGULATORY EXPECTATIONS, WERE GENERALLY SEEN AS THE CORE FUEL DRIVING BTC TO CONTINUE TO MOVE ON WITH THE OVERALL RISK ASSET. IN THIS CONTEXT, SEVERAL INSTITUTIONS AND EMINENT PERSONS HAVE GIVEN RADICAL ANNUAL TARGET PRICES (ESPECIALLY BETWEEN $200,000 AND $250,000) AND HAVE FOCUSED ON “INDUSTRIAL STRUCTURAL CHANGES” SUCH AS THE EXPANSION OF THE SUPPLY OF COMPLIANCE PRODUCTS, THE FURTHER MAINSTREAMING OF EXCHANGES AND ENCRYPTION COMPANIES, AND THE CONTINUED GROWTH OF THE RWA/STABILIZATION CURRENCY. LOOKING BACK AT THE ACTUAL TRENDS IN 2025, PRICE-POINT PROJECTIONS GENERALLY OVERESTIMATED THE INTENSITY AND SUSTAINABILITY OF THE INCREASE, WHILE REGULATORY DECISIONS RELATED TO INDUSTRY STRUCTURES WERE RELATIVELY EASIER TO DELIVER。

KuCoin Research

The core view of the Encrypted Market Outlook 2025, published by KuCoin Research, is based on “historic trends after halving + institutionalization/ETF push” that BTC may be testing up to about $250,000 in 2025, while simultaneously predicting the overall market value of encryption (excluding the BTC caliber) to about $3.4 trillion by the end of 2025 and entering a stronger mountain season; the regulatory and product dimension anticipates that more encrypted ETFs, such as Solana, XRP and others, will be approved/ pushed forward in 2025; and the application and structural trends emphasize that RWA monetization, AIAgents, stabilization currency expansion (over 400 B by the end of 2025) will become the main line。

REWINDING: THE FAILURE WAS CONCENTRATED ON “PRICE INTENSITY” – THE PEAK OF THE BTC YEAR WAS ABOUT US$ 126,000 AND AROUND US$ ~ 88,000 AT THE END OF THE YEAR, WITH A CLEAR GAP WITH THE TARGET OF 250,000. SUCCESS / PART OF SUCCESS IS MORE EVIDENT IN “STRUCTURE AND SUPPLY SIDE TRENDS”: IN 2025, COMPLIANCE PRODUCT PUSH AND TRADE TO SOL/XRP DID OCCUR (E.G. BSOL STARTED TRADING IN 2025-10-28, XRPC STARTED TRADING IN 2025-11-13), MORE IN LINE WITH ITS “ETF PROLIFERATION, INCREASED SUPPLY OF PRODUCTS” JUDGEMENT; BUT TARGETS ON A SCALE LIKE “STABILIZATION CURRENCY YEAR-END > 400B” ARE CLOSER TO BEING FULLY MET / MAY BE OPTIMISTIC。

Tom Lee

Tom Lee spoke publicly in January 2025 about the BTC ' s possible target of $250,000, mainly on the grounds of "regulated winds, market resilience, improved financing". As a result, the target was significantly defeated in terms of the actual swing path in 2025。

H.C. Wainwright

H.C. Wainwright moved the BTC end-of-year target upwards to $2.25 million in January 2025. The reasons given included historical cycle patterns, expectations of a more regulatory environment and increased institutional interest. As a result, this goal has clearly not been met. The reason is similar to Tom Lee, and most of the “200,000 levels” forecast: they see “enabling environment” as a linear uptick, while underestimating the market’s sensitivity to macro-risk and leverage crowding at a high stage – that is, once a fallback triggers, it tends to go “risk clear” instead of continuing to reverse narratives to higher far-off pricing。

Matrixport

MatrixportIN DECEMBER 2024, THE IDEA DESCRIBED 2025 AS THE BTC'S “YEAR OF BREAKTHROUGH” AND GIVEN THE RELATIVE PRICE OF $160,000 AS “LESS THAN 200,000-250,000 CAMPS”. THE “THRESHOLD” OF THIS GOAL IS LOWER THAN 22.5 MILLION AND MORE LIKE A REASONABLE UPWARD TREND BASED ON IMPROVED EMOTIONAL AND FINANCIAL CONDITIONS, BUT IT REMAINS UNFULFILLED IN COMPARISON WITH THE FINAL PERFORMANCE IN 2025。

Bitwise

Bitwise, in December 2024, in the “2025 Ten Prognostics”, the first was radical: they thought that BTC, ETH, SOL would be the highest ever, and that BTC would be trading more than $200,000 in 2025; and bet on a more “industry structure” judgement — for exampleCoinbaseIT WILL ENTER THE STANDARD 500, STABILIZE THE SIZE OF CURRENCY AND MONETIZED ASSETS, AND ENCRYPT THE IPO MARKET。

As a result, the “price point” was significantly frustrated: the BTC peaked in October 2025, but at the end of the year it was significantly below the peak of the year, not to mention 200,000. On the other hand, the “mainstreamed” part is closer to reality: Coinbase was officially incorporated into S& in May 2025; and P500, the IPO/publicity wave was marked in 2025。

VanEck

VanEck’s “2025 Ten Large Prognosis” gives not only price targets, but also a very specific cyclical path: They believe that the bull market will reach its mid-term peak in Q1 and set a target for the peak of the cycle: BTC about 180,000, ETH over 6000, SOL over 500, SUI over 10; then it is expected that BTC may retreat 30 per cent, while the fortress may retreat up to 60 per cent, and then recover kinetic energy by the end of the year。

By contrast with the actual path of 2025, the framework “will be strongly retreated and highly volatile” is not out of line, but the key hard spot (180,000 60000/500/10) is not fully realized。

Galaxy Research

Galaxy Research, published in late 2024, presented the BTC ' s core logic in plain writing: adoption at the institutional, corporate and national levels would drive the BTC to reach 150,000 in the first half of the year and test or exceed 185,000 in Q4; it also prepared a package of industry forecasts, including stable currency growth, deFi expansion, and increased institutional participation。

AS A RESULT, THE BTC DID HAVE A CLEAR UPTURN IN 2025, BUT OVERALL IT WAS NOT CLOSE TO THEIR TARGET OF 150,000 AND 185,000. POSSIBLE REASONS ARE: USING A “SLOW VARIABLE”, WHICH CAN CHANGE LONG-TERM BOUNDARY CONDITIONS, BUT WHICH CAN HARDLY OFFSET THE “QUICK VARIABLE” BROUGHT ABOUT BY MACRO-SHOCKS, SILOS AND LEVERAGE CLEARING. WHEN THERE IS A CLEAR FALLBACK DURING THE YEAR, THE MARKET TENDS TO GIVE FIRST PRICE FOR RISK CONTRACTION AND DELEVERAGING, RATHER THAN CONTINUING TO DISCOUNT THE USE OF NARRATIVES TO HIGHER LONG-TERM EXTREMES。

Bloomberg

At the end of 2024, an ETF analyst from Bloomberg (e. g. Eric Balchunas, etc.) put in public discussion the "Approval rhythm of the live stock ETF" As an important variable in 2025: They believe that Solana and the XRP spot ETF are expected to be on a realistic path in 2025, but they also clearly suggest that approval will not be “centralized at the same time” and more likely to be accompanied by an extended, phased pace of regulatory processes。

In retrospect, this judgment can be calculated as a whole (both direction and rhythm are correct): On October 28th, 2025, Solana Staking ETF (BSOL) of Bitwise began trading; on November 13th, 2025, Canada XRP ETF (XRPC) also started trading in NASDAQ, both of which did appear in time to be “situated rather than identical”。

Pantera

Pantera's Encrypted Vision 2025 is based on “policy environment warming + industry compliance/infrastructure acceleration”, with particular emphasis on structural trends such as RWA/ the continued expansion of real-life asset monetization。

Part of the success seen in the round is in “direction” – where policy/regulation pushes and industry structural progress became evident during the year; and part of the failure/failure is in the “price intensity” – Pantera itself admits that 2025’s price performance is below the expectations of many, and that markets have experienced greater volatility and retreats after rushing。

Forbes

Some Forbes column / opinion articles at the beginning of the year also made judgments in the form of “Seven Trends in the Encryption Industry in 2025”, including “the establishment of strategic bitcoin reserves in major economies”, “the doubling of the market value of the stabilization currency to $40 billion”, “BTC DeFi with L2 Rapid Growth”, “encrypted ETF to be extended to solo pledge and solana.”。

IN RETROSPECT, SOME OF THESE “TREND LISTS” ARE CLOSER TO BEING DELIVERED (E.G., DISCUSSIONS ON THE IMPROVEMENT OF THE ETF PRODUCT LINE AND THE REGULATORY ENVIRONMENT DID PROGRESS DURING THE YEAR), BUT THE COMBINATION OF SEVERAL RADICAL VARIABLES WITH PROJECTIONS OF “A YEAR-ROUND SUCCESS” IS MORE OPTIMISTIC – ESPECIALLY “THE TOTAL MARKET VALUE OF $8 TRILLION”, “THE TECHNOLOGY GIANT FOLLOWING TESLA’S BTC”, “THE DOUBLING OF THE STABILITY CURRENCY TO $40 BILLION AT THE END OF THE YEAR” AND, ULTIMATELY, THE RESULT OF “A FEW PARTS CERTIFIED, MOST NOT MEETING EXPECTATIONS.”。

Concluding remarks

Overall, the results of this forecast at the beginning of 2025 are not complex: the more a single price point is charged, the more extreme the target (20-250,000), the easier it is to fail; and the more a regulation process, product supply, and industry structure change, the easier part or direction of life. The market for 2025 is more like a high-vulnerability path of “high innovation – retreat – re-pricing”: macro-risks and leverage break-up trends so that “logical correctness” does not necessarily translate into “end-of-year point”; rather, the landing of compliance products, increased involvement of mainstream institutions, such as “supply-side changes” are more verifiable, and thus more stable in the reset。

 

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