Transactions never sleep: chain, crude oil and leverage

Author:Zhou, ChainCatcher

 

ThreeMonthSevenFrom8During the weekend of the day, fighting in the Middle East continued, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz continued to deteriorate, and successive oil-producing countries announced reductions。

However, the global crude oil futures market is closed and traded 24 hours a day on the chain。

It's SaturdayWTI(b) The renewal of the crude oil contractKatePlatform crude oil contract transactions surged over and over900%I don't know。

On Monday, traditional futures were openedWTIIt's a one-day boom30%I don't know。HyperliquidLet's goWTIOil contractsCLTransaction fromThreeMonthThreeDayhead breakOneHere's a billion dollars9It's getting closer10Billion dollars。

Everyone is saying it's a high-light moment for large commodities in the chain, but nobody asks who set the price in this window

The window is open. Who's going to decide the price

According to Bloomberg, the encrypted currency market is the only open window for traders to measure the risk of continued conflict in the Middle East。

As the war continued in Iran, the chain-based track-up of contracts for crude oil, gold and silver was driven by significant fluctuations by bulk and encrypted primary traders。

Price volatility in the chain can be a real-time indicator of market sentiment, but its reference value is limitedI don't know. Encrypted observers indicate that these platforms also provide traditional markets with a possible reference model for “all-weather trading”。

This time, reality is more extreme than narrative。

According to Goldman Sachs surveillance data, oil flows in the Straits of Hormuz have collapsed. Approximately90%Daily average1800The supply of 10,000 barrels disappeared。

Morgan Chase estimates that the size of the supply disruption in the Gulf region could be broken in a few weeks150A million barrelsI'm sorryThe sun is approaching600A million barrelsI'm sorryFuck, yeah2022Russia's annual peak decline17Double。

Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq and Qatar have successively declared cuts or closures。ThreeThis post is part of our special coverage Syria Protests 2011WTIThe cumulative maximum increase exceeded once50%I don't know。

What really benefits from this wave is the encrypted exchange of crude oil contracts in the early deployment chainThe outbreak of the trade directly drives the revenue from its fees. litresI don't know。

KateThe data shows that:Gate XBR(Brunt crude oil)24Hours of contract transactions1200$ million, ring growth951.37%；XTII'm sorryWTICrude oil)24Hours of contract transactions2115$ million, ring growth397.08 per centFunding attention and market participation continued to rise。

The chain surveillance data showed that many well-known chain traders and agencies had been scheduled well before the outbreakRWAAmerican shares and large commodity tracks。

• SkySororityRune (@RuneKek)YesThreeMonthSevenDay92The average dollar price is set870US$ million in crude oil and synchronized toETHAnd Na-Finger single-handed。
• CBBI'm sorry@Cbb0fe)ThreeMonthFourDay78.3The average dollar is on a scale3630$ millionCLEmpty list, plus empty Korean stock market, gas, andAIIndustrial chain476A million dollars to make more gold。
• LoracleonThreeMonthSevenAverage daily price92Open in United States dollars780US$ 000 sizeCLempty list, in addition560A million dollars is emptyNVDAandPAXG, the current two-way hold has been suspended。
• Anti-whal0x8afYes770After the full liquidation of the United States dollar bill, there was almost no pause and a new empty space was re-established。
• Some guy who used to make a profit on a single dollarFive thousandThe US$ million address, a loss on bulk commodities for almost a month730$ million。

Some of these people are doing structured hedges, some are gambling in reverse, and others are fighting trends。

They are in a different direction, but one thing is the same — no one is a real crude oil dealer, no one is seriously analysing the real probability of closure in the Strait of Hormuz, and no one is building a crude oil supply and demand model。

They were driven by war narratives and amplifiers provided by chain levers。

This is the very nature of the commodity markets in the chain. Liquidity determines who is pricing, while market liquidity in the chain remains only a fraction of traditional markets. Chicago Commodity ExchangeCMEThe price of crude oil is 10 billionHyperliquidYes9.1Billions of dollars have been at the peak of history。

A large house in a warehouse will be on the top of the warehouse7*24Just an encrypted trader's collective imagination of war。

Prices in this window are priced by emotion, magnified by leverage, driven by war narrativesI don't knowInstead of crude oil supply and demand。

Oil money is earned, but larger macro-risks are accumulating

Those who are still in the chain of crude oil contracts may not realize that the same war is accumulating risks from another direction。

According toThe Kobeissi LetterIf oil prices are maintained120More than three months near the dollar, AmericaCPIInflation will rise to around3.7 per centYes, I do2023Year9The highest level since the month。

In the meantimeTwoMonthly non-farm employment- 9.2Number of people, unemployment rate rises4.4%I don't know. The fall in employment rates should have been reversed, but further inflation expectations prevented the Fed from working。

Once the interest-rate window is closed, the valuation logic of the global risk asset is re-pressed. Stock markets, bulk commodities, encrypted currency, no one can do it alone。

The risk goes beyond that. Sovereign funds in the Middle East such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar are suspending their response to the United StatesAIAnd the big investment in the data centreAIExport controls of chips have been extended globally。

In addition, Belet announced restrictions on the size of the flag260Billion dollar enterprise loan fund investors redeemed-- This type of fund, which has been bleeding at high interest rates for data centre projects for the past three years, has been redeemed quarterly by investors and has been on loan for long periods5to10Years, and the misalignment has buried the pitfalls。

Encrypt market withAIThe sources of funding for narratives are highly overlapping, onceAIThe cooling of narratives triggers the recovery of funds, which will trigger more sales2008It happened before the annual subprime crisis。

Concluding remarks

In a war, a group of furdogs were turned into crude oil traders, some of whom earned money and others were liquidated and re-opened。

The chain never sleeps, and the war does not stop. Today, the bill for macro-risks is not on the ground, and the battle for space is not yet ready for a real settlement。

Next time, who's on the right side