What's next for Boox
By Cathy
Output: White-tongue block chain
Bitcoin dropped from $126,000 to $90,000 today, with 28,57 per cent。
Market panic, liquidity depletion, and deleveraging pressures are killing everyone. The Coinglass data show that the fourth quarter was marked by an incident of forced silos, which significantly weakened market liquidity。
But at the same time, some structural benefits are coming together: the US SEC is about to launch &ldquao; the innovation exemption &rdquao; and the rules are that the Fed’s expectations of entering the interest-rate reduction cycle are growing stronger and the global institutionalization corridor is rapidly maturing。
This is the biggest contradiction in the current market: in the short term, it looks bad and in the long term it looks good。
The question is, where does the next round come from
One, there's not enough money
FIRST OF ALL, THERE IS A MYTH THAT IS BREAKING DOWN: DIGITAL ASSETS TREASURY (DAT)。
WHAT'S DAT? IN SHORT, LISTED COMPANIES BUY CURRENCY (BITCOIN OR OTHER QUAIL) BY ISSUING SHARES AND DEBTS, AND THEN MAKE MONEY THROUGH ACTIVE ASSET MANAGEMENT (COLLATERALIZATION, BORROWING, ETC.)。
The core of this model lies in “ the capital wheel ” as long as the company ' s share price is consistently higher than its holdings of net encrypted assets (NAV), capital can be scaled up through high-priced and low-priced purchases。
Sounds good, but there's a premise: stock prices have to keep the premium。
once the market turns to “ risk circumvention &rdquao; this high & bita, especially when bitcoin falls; the premium collapses quickly and even turns into a discount. as soon as the premium disappears, the equity will dilute the shareholder value and the financing capacity will be depleted。
More crucial is the scale。
AS OF SEPTEMBER 2025, WHILE MORE THAN 200 COMPANIES HAD ADOPTED THE DAT STRATEGY AND HELD MORE THAN $115 BILLION IN DIGITAL ASSETS, THAT FIGURE WAS LESS THAN 5 PER CENT RELATIVE TO THE OVERALL ENCRYPTION MARKET。
THIS MEANS THAT THE PURCHASING POWER OF DAT IS SIMPLY NOT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE NEXT ROUND OF CATTLE MARKETS。
WORSE STILL, WHEN THE MARKET IS UNDER PRESSURE, DAT MAY NEED TO SELL ITS ASSETS TO SUSTAIN ITS OPERATIONS, PUTTING ADDITIONAL PRESSURE ON THE WEAK MARKET TO SELL。
Markets must find larger and more structurally stable sources of finance。
02, FED AND SEC OPENINGS
Structural liquidity shortages can only be addressed through systemic reforms。
Federal Reserve: taps and gates
The conclusion of the Federal Reserve ' s quantitative austerity policy on 1 December 2025 was a critical turning point。
OVER THE PAST TWO YEARS, QT QUANTITATIVE AUSTERITY HAS CONTINUED TO DRAW LIQUIDITY AWAY FROM GLOBAL MARKETS, AND ITS END HAS MEANT THAT A MAJOR STRUCTURAL CONSTRAINT HAS BEEN REMOVED。
More importantly, interest rate reduction expectations。
On 9 December, according to CME“ Federal Reserve Watch ” data show that the Fed had a probability of reducing interest rates by 87.3 per cent at 25 points in December。
Historical data are intuitive: during the 2020 epidemic, the Fed's interest rate and quantitative easing increased bitcoin from about $7,000 to about $29,000 at the end of the year. Such a reduction would reduce borrowing costs and boost capital flows to high-risk assets。
Another key person deserves attention: Kevin Hassett, a potential Federal Reserve Chair candidate。
He was friendly with respect to encrypted assets and supported radical interest rates. But more importantly, his dual strategic value:
one is “ tap ” — — and directly determines the degree of laxity of monetary policy, affecting market liquidity costs。
the other is “ gate ” — — determining the extent to which the united states banking system is open to the encryption industry。
If encrypted and friendly Leader takes office, it is possible to accelerate the synergy between FDIC and OCC on digital assets, which is a prerequisite for the entry of sovereign funds and pensions。
SEC: REGULATION FROM THREAT TO OPPORTUNITY
Paul Atkins, Chairman of the SEC, has announced plans to introduce the “ Innovation Exemption &rdquo (Innovation Exchange) Rules in January 2026。
the exemption is intended to simplify the compliance process and allow encryption companies to move products faster in the regulatory sandbox. the new framework will update the currency classification system, which may include “ sunset clauses ” — — and the security identity of contemporary currencies that ceases when the decentrization has been achieved. this provides developers with clear legal boundaries to attract talent and capital back to the united states。
More important is the change in regulatory attitudes。
IN ITS 2026 REVIEW FOCUS, THE SEC FOR THE FIRST TIME REMOVED ENCRYPTED CURRENCY FROM ITS SEPARATE PRIORITY LIST, INSTEAD EMPHASIZING DATA PROTECTION AND PRIVACY。
This suggests that the SEC is moving from treating digital assets as &ldquao; emerging threats as &rdquao; to integrating them into mainstream regulatory themes. This “ de-risk & rdquo; removes institutional compliance barriers and makes digital assets more acceptable to corporate boards and management bodies。
It's really possible
IF DAT DOESN'T HAVE ENOUGH MONEY, WHERE'S THE REAL BIG MONEY? PERHAPS THE ANSWER COMES FROM THREE PIPELINES THAT ARE BEING LAID。
Pipe I: Agency test entry
ETF HAS BECOME THE PREFERRED METHOD FOR THE GLOBAL ASSET MANAGEMENT AGENCY TO ALLOCATE FUNDS TO ENCRYPTION。
AFTER THE UNITED STATES APPROVED THE SPOT BITCOIN ETF IN JANUARY 2024, HONG KONG ALSO APPROVED THE SPOTBITCOIN AND THE ETF. THIS GLOBAL REGULATORY CONVERGENCE HAS MADE ETF A STANDARDIZED CONDUIT FOR RAPID DEPLOYMENT OF INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL。
But ETF is only the beginning, and more importantly the maturity of the hosting and clearing infrastructure. The focus of institutional investors has been from “ whether &rdquo can be invested; to “ how to invest safely and efficiently &rdquo。
Digital asset hosting services have been provided by global custodians such as Melon Bank in New York. Platforms such as Angelage Digital integrate intermediates (e.g. BridgePort) to provide institutional-level clearing infrastructure. These cooperations allow agencies to allocate assets without pre-financing, which greatly increases the efficiency of capital use。
The most imaginative are pensions and sovereign wealth funds。
Bill Miller, a billionaire investor, said that it was expected that within the next three to five years, the financial adviser would start proposing a bitcoin of between 1 and 3 per cent of the portfolio. It sounds small, but for the trillions of dollars of institutional assets around the globe, one to three per cent of the allocation means trillions of dollars in inflows。
Indiana has proposed to allow investments in pensions to be encrypted with ETF. The United Arab Emirates sovereign investors worked with 3iQ to launch hedge funds, attracting $100 million, with a target annualized return of 12-15 per cent. This institutionalized process ensures the predictability and long-term structural nature of institutional flows, which are distinct from the DAT model。
PIPE II: RWA, TRILLION-DOLLAR BRIDGE
THE MONETIZATION OF RWA (REAL WORLD ASSETS) MAY BE THE MOST IMPORTANT DRIVER OF THE NEXT WAVE OF LIQUIDITY。
WHAT'S RWA? IT IS THE CONVERSION OF TRADITIONAL ASSETS (SUCH AS BONDS, PROPERTIES, WORKS OF ART) INTO DIGITAL TOKENS ON BLOCK CHAINS。
As of September 2025, the global market value of RWA was approximately $30,911 million. According to Tren Finance, by 2030 the monetization of the RWA market is likely to grow more than 50-fold, with most companies predicting a market size of $4-30 trillion。
This is much larger than any existing encrypted primary capital pool。
Why does RWA matter? It addresses the language barrier between traditional finance and DeFi. Currencyized bonds or treasury bills allowing both parties to speak the same language & rdquo; RWA brings stable, gainfully supported assets to DeFi, reduces volatility and provides non-encrypted source of proceeds to institutional investors。
Agreements such as MakerDAO and Ondo Finance have become a magnet for institutional capital by introducing United States Treasury bonds into the chain as collateral. RWA integration has made MakerDAO one of the largest DeFi agreements on TVL, with billions of dollars of United States Treasury debt supporting DAI. This suggests that traditional finance is active in deploying capital when revenue products that are compliant and supported by traditional assets emerge。
Pipe III: Infrastructure upgrade
WHETHER THE SOURCE OF CAPITAL IS INSTITUTIONAL OR RWA, EFFICIENT AND LOW-COST TRADE SETTLEMENT INFRASTRUCTURE IS A PREREQUISITE FOR LARGE-SCALE ADOPTION。
Layer 2 handles transactions outside of the ITA network, significantly reducing Gas costs and recognizing times. Platforms such as dYdX provide rapid order creation and cancellation capability through L2, which cannot be achieved on Layer 1. This expansion is essential for managing HF institutional capital flows。
Stable currency is even more crucial。
TRM Labs reported that, as of August 2025, transactions in the stable currency chain exceeded $4 trillion, an increase of 83 per cent over the same period, representing 30 per cent of all transactions in the chain. By the first half of the year, the total market value of the stable currency amounted to $166 billion, which became the cross-border payment pillar. In South-East Asia, over 43 per cent of B2B cross-border payments were reported as stable currency。
As regulators (e.g. the Hong Kong Monetary Authority) require stable currency issuers to maintain 100 per cent of their reserves, the position of the stable currency as a cash instrument in the compliance and high liquidity chain has been consolidated to ensure efficient transfer and liquidation of funds。
How could the money come
If these three pipes really open, how will the money come? Short-term market reversals reflect the necessary process of deleveraging, but structural indicators suggest that the encryption market may be at the threshold of a new round of large-scale inflows。
SHORT TERM (END 2025-2026 Q1): POSSIBLE POLICY REBOUND
If the Fed ends the QT and lowers interest rates, if SEC“ innovation exemption ” and when it lands in January, the market may have a policy-driven rebound. This phase depends primarily on psychological factors, with clear regulatory signals that allow venture capital to flow back. But this wave is highly speculative, volatile and of a continuing nature questionable。
Medium term (2026-2027): progressive entry of institutional funds
AS THE GLOBAL ETF AND HOSTING INFRASTRUCTURE MATURE, LIQUIDITY MAY COME MAINLY FROM REGULATED INSTITUTIONAL POOLS. A SMALL STRATEGIC ALLOCATION OF PENSIONS AND SOVEREIGN FUNDS MAY COME INTO EFFECT, CAPITAL THAT IS PATIENT AND LOW-LEVERAGING, PROVIDES A STABLE BASIS FOR MARKETS AND DOES NOT FOLLOW UP AND FALL LIKE SCATTERED HOUSEHOLDS。
LONG-TERM (2027-2030): POSSIBLE STRUCTURAL CHANGES FROM RWA
Continued large-scale liquidity may depend on RWA mooring. RWA introduced the value, stability and flow of traditional assets into the block chain, with the expectation of moving DeFi ' s TVL to a trillion-degree level. RWA, by linking encrypted ecology directly to global balance sheets, may ensure long-term structural growth rather than cyclical speculation. If this path is established, the encryption market will really move from the margins to the mainstream。
Summary
The last round of the cattle market was based on family and leverage。
The next round, if it comes, may depend on institutions and infrastructure。
markets are moving from marginal to mainstream and the problem is from &ldquao; can you vote &rdquao; can you vote &ldquao; how can you vote &rdquao safely。
The money won't come out of nowhere, but the pipes are already laid。
Over the next three to five years, these pipelines may be gradually opened. By that time, market competition would no longer be the focus of the diaspora, but the level of institutional trust and allocation。
This is a shift from speculation to infrastructure and a necessary way to mature the encryption market。
