Original title: Do Kwon, $1.8 billion on the night before trial

Original by David, Deepwater TechFlow

AS OF THE EVENING OF DECEMBER 10TH, YOU PROBABLY DIDN'T NOTICE THAT LUNA'S CONTRACT DATA WAS SO RIDICULOUS。

IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY TECHNOLOGICAL UPGRADES AND GOOD NEWS ABOUT ECOLOGY, THE LUNA SERIES OF CONTRACTS (INCLUDING LUNA AND LUNA2) ARE CLOSE TO A TOTAL OF 24-HOUR TRANSACTIONS ON THE WHOLE MARKET$1.8 billion。

AND LUNA ITSELF HAS RISEN 150 PERCENT IN THE LAST WEEK。

BY CONTRAST, LUNA AND LUNA2 COMBINED ARE NOW CLOSE TO THE TOP 10 OF THE TOTAL MARKET CONTRACT TRADES, AFTER THE $1.88 BILLION OF HYPE。

And the financial rates for both are- 0.0595%and- 0.0789%I don't know。

High negative rates mean that markets are not only currently congested, but are also in an extreme state of disagreement: large sums of money are empty, while another, even larger share of money, is using such congestion to drive them out。

WE ALL KNOW THAT LUNA IS NO LONGER BASIC. THIS $1.8 BILLION LIQUIDITY IS ACTUALLY TRADING A WAGER FOR THE UPCOMING AWARD:

Tomorrow, December 11th, at 24.00, the King of Stabilized CurrencyDo KwonCourt 1305, Federal District Court, Southern District, New YorkWelcome to the final sentencing hearingI don't know。

The market is betting on the last edition of the money-cycler's sentence with real money and silver。

The sentence can be long and short, and speculation won't rest

To understand the volume of the $1.8 billion contract deal, it is necessary to look at the real progress of this case。

For most people, the name Do Kwon has faded away since the epic collapse of 2022。

But in fact, this old encryption tycoon was extradited to New York in late 2024. In August of this year, he formally pleaded guilty to multiple charges, including securities fraud, in the Federal Court of Manhattan。

Tomorrow's hearing is not a debate about “guilty or innocence”, but a final decision on the length of the sentence. According to the most recent court documents, there is a huge gap between the prosecution and the defence regarding sentencing proposals:

Prosecution claims 12 years' imprisonmentI don't know。

The U.S. Attorney's Office was tough on the grounds of the billions of dollars of damage caused by Terra's crash and the fraud of Do Kwon before the crash in relation to Chai's payment application of “false chaining”。

In the market, 12 years represents a complete end. According to the encryption four-year cycle, three rounds of the cycle have nothing to do with Do Kwon。

The defence applied for five years of imprisonment。

The defence team issued a "sympathetic card" emphasizing that Do Kwon had been detained in Montenegro for a long time and had pleaded guilty and cooperated with the fine imposed by the SEC。

SEVEN YEARS OF GAP IS ENOUGH FOR A DAY-TO-DAY SPECULATION AND CAPITAL GAME AROUND LUNA COINS。

THE NORMAL LOGIC MUST HAVE BEEN THAT THE FOUNDERS HAD BEEN SENTENCED, AND THE LUNA COIN MUST HAVE GONE FURTHER THAN THAT. AS A RESULT, THE MARKET IS FULL OF EMPTY DISKS, AND WE SEE NEGATIVE FUND RATES

But the main money, or the dealer, doesn't really need to believe that Do Kwon is really going to be sentenced to five young people, just to use the uncertainty of the verdict to raise prices in reverse, and to hunt for too crowded an empty space。

This may also explain why LUNA's surged on the night before Do Kwon's trial. The market is certainly not celebrating justice, but speculating on the judgement itself。

The encrypted market was already less hot and generally weak, and tomorrow's hearings have created a small amount of local volatility。

From victim to predator

You're awake. It's 2022。

IF WE OPEN LUNA'S HOLD-UP MAP IN MAY 2022, WE'LL SEE A WORSE PICTURE:

It is crowded with Korean diasporas who have lost their life savings, hard-earned encryption funds, and speculators who try to get bottom of it but are buried. The deal then was filled with anger, despair and irrational self-help。

Today, three years later, the microstructure of the market has completed a complete blood exchange。

The victims were already cut off. Perhaps a very different group of participants is sitting across the table. For example, high-frequency quantitative teams, event-driven hedge funds, and speculators specializing in hunting for “spam assets”。

For these new players, the questions of whether Do Kwon is innocent, whether Terra's ecology has a future, are not only not important, but even oneNoiseI don't know. The only thing they care about is..Event Beta(Event Beta) is the sensitivity of asset prices to particular legal news。

In this case, LUNA’s asset attributes have in fact been alienated into a derivative instrument around the law, as some Meme coins have actually moved around a public figure。

This is an extremely cruel maturity of the encryption marketDeath or jail can be monetizedI don't know。

THE CURRENT LUNA AND EVEN MANY SHELL-ONLY CURRENCY DEALS ARE ESSENTIALLY DISASTER PRICING. MAIN FUNDING IS CLEAR, AND THE BASICS ARE ZERO. BUT AS LONG AS DIFFERENCES EXIST, AS LONG AS THERE'S SPACE FOR GAMES, THE SHELL IS PERFECT。

It can even be said that it is because of the absence of anchors on the fundamentals that currency price fluctuations are no longer restrained and depend entirely on the disclosure of emotions。

and that's the way it is, most of the tokens in the encrypted market are actually meme。

Price everything

After sentencing tomorrow, whether Do Kwon hears "five years" or "twelve years", the result may be the same for LUNA。

After the incident, the currency rate becomes non-variable; not only bad news kills the business, but the price of the money is still highGood news for sureI don't know。

If the sentence is heavy, the logic goes back to fundamentals and the price is zero; if it's light, it's good, it's good, and it's good, and it's good。

JUST TO BE REASONABLE, LUNA IS ACTUALLY A GOOD OBSERVATION MIRROR。

It has a technical narrative of a algorithm to stabilize the currency, as well as an extremely mature and cold side of the market。

Today's encryption market, even a dead currency and a guilty founder, can be efficiently repackaged as chips on the table, provided that there is a little news value。

THE LIQUIDITY OF THE ENCRYPTED MARKET HAS EVOLVED TO THE POINT WHERE IT CAN PRICE ANYTHING: EMOTIONS, BUGS, FACEBAGS... AND, OF COURSE, ONE'S FREEDOM, AND A JUST TRIAL。

In the face of such extreme efficiency, moral judgement seems somewhat redundant。

The life behind Do Kwon may be spent in prison with grief, but the encryption market is not sad, except for fluctuations that have not yet been priced。

Original Tab