THEY KNEW IN ADVANCE THAT TGA WAS THE BEST GAME OF THE YEAR
By Kevin Lau
Today, the award ceremony for the TGA (The Game Awards) is finally over。
LET'S JUMP BACK THREE HOURS AGO. AT THIS POINT, THE BEST INDEPENDENCE GAME HAS JUST BEEN GIVEN TO A POPULAR EDITION OF LIGHT AND SHADOW: 33 EXPEDITION, BUT IT WORRIES MANY FANS: THERE HAS NEVER BEEN A SINGLE GAME IN THE TGA THAT HAS BEEN AWARDED BOTH THE BEST INDEPENDENCE GAME AND THE BEST ANNUAL GAME。
AS A POPULAR GOTY LIGHTS AND SHADOWS, IT IS TIME TO BREAK THE CURSE OF TGA AND CREATE AN UNPRECEDENTED MOMENT IN THE GAME WORLD。
AT A TIME OF CONCERN, A MYSTERIOUS MAN REGISTERED HIS ACCOUNT ON A "PREDICT MARKET" PLATFORM THAT HAD NOTHING TO DO WITH THE GAME CIRCLE AND WAS WORTH $10,000. HE FOUND THE TOPIC "WILL THE LIGHT AND SHADOW GET TO GOTY IN 2025" ON THE PLATFORM, AND PUT ALL THE $10,000 THAT JUST CAME IN。
AT THIS POINT, THE PROBABILITY THAT THE TOPIC WILL OCCUR IS AT A PRICE OF $0.98, WHICH MEANS THAT EVEN IF LIGHT AND SHADOW DID INDEED CREATE TWO PRIZES IN THE HISTORY OF THE GAME, THE $10,000 HE WAS BETTING ON WOULD BE LESS THAN $200. BUT IF LIGHT AND SHADOW CAN'T BREAK THE TGA SPELL, THEN THE PROBABILITY OF THE SUBJECT BECOMES ZERO, WHICH MEANS THAT THE $10,000 HE JUST SPENT ON IT WILL BE ZERO。
What kind of a fanatical fan of Light and Shadow is it that takes such risk without consequence? How does the forecast market attract game fans from all over the world to speculate in advance about the prize winners
It's a pre-set script
As early as October 30th, a month and a half before the award ceremony, Polymarket started the topic of "The Best Game in 2025." Light and Shadow's chances of winning a prize were over 80% from the start, while the chances of winning a prize for other high-profile 3As were under 10%. Since this one-sided situation usually occurs only in incidents where the outcome is no longer in the shadow of a suspense, this anomaly has led many traders to smell a bit of unusual: It's not just about looking, it's about being sure。
And several of these "sure" traders have very uniform operating styles. DieselDiesel, Trumpnogo and Kasae are all at a probability of 85%. Lights and Shadows won the TGA 2025 GOTY, and they're betting more than their usual scores, tens or hundreds of times. This extremely concentrated and abnormal act of betting places them at great risk: If " Lights and Shadows " were ultimately not rewarded, they would not only throw out all past profits, but also bear huge losses。
With the advance of time and the increased probability of the award to Light and Shadow, they did not profit from selling any of their shares. Even three hours before the award was announced, the "Best Independence Games" had been announced, and they were still on the line as if the future had been predicted, and together with mystics at the beginning of the paper, they were betting on their entire accounts for the ultimate small profit。
The award of history and the fulfilment of the inside
ALONG WITH THE QUESTIONS AND CONCERNS, THE TGA, LIKE THE SCRIPTS THAT THESE TRADERS HAD SET UP MORE THAN A MONTH AGO, CLOSED THE FINAL SUSPENSE: LIGHT AND SHADOW, WHICH EVERYONE HOPED FOR, BROKE THE HISTORICAL CURSE AND WON THE BEST GAME THIS YEAR WHEN THEY WERE AWARDED THE BEST INDEPENDENT GAME。
While the players on this side are cheering, the other side of the forecast market also opens the final mystery: three traders who have decided a month ago that Light and Shadow will win the prize have taken the role of the "unknown prophet" and made huge profits:
Diesel Diesel made a profit of $5,357, or 176 per cent of all its other transactions
trumpnogo made a profit of $2,958, or 62 per cent of all its other transactions
kasae made a profit of $1,658, or 220 per cent of all its other transactions, in the event。
and the mystery person (bobo9997) that we mentioned at the beginning won "up to $200" for $10,000 this time because of the certainty that light and shadow will make history。
"The Prophet has to eat too."
The common denominator among the four traders is that when many players question whether Light and Shadow can break the curse of history, the historic moment when they “regardlessly lose” nearly $100,000 of their warehouse space to “bend” is taking place, which brings less than $2,000 to their benefit。
AT THIS POINT, LET'S ASSUME THAT THESE "UNKNOWN PROPHETS" ARE TGA TELLERS. FOR AN INSIDER WITH AN ANNUAL INCOME OF $100,000, IF NEWS IS TO BE TURNED DOWN IN TRADITIONAL FORMS, IT NEEDS TO BE SOLD TO SUCH PLATFORMS AS THE MEDIA, BUT IT REPRESENTS A VARIETY OF POTENTIAL FINES, DISMISSALS, AND EVEN IMPRISONMENT。
However, when markets are projected to emerge, they can trade anonymously for information gaps equivalent to their disposable income of between one and three months。
WHEN WE LOOK AT THE INSIDERS WHO ASSUME THAT THEY ALREADY KNOW THE RESULTS IN ADVANCE, EVERYTHING BECOMES CLEAR: WITH 100% CONFIRMATION THAT LIGHT AND SHADOW WILL BE GOTY, THEIR "SHOW" AT THE END OF THE DAY IS JUST AN HOUR BEFORE THE AWARD IS PRESENTED, IN EXCHANGE FOR A 2,000-DOLLAR PROFIT THAT APPEARS TO BE HIGH-RISK AND VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED。
This seemingly risky, but non-variable, wager for them is almost impossible to meet before a platform like the market can be predicted。
However, with the spread of Polymarket, how many can refuse to convert information into real silver and silver anonymously
