Tiger Research: Policy Catalyst and Liquidity Expansion, Bitcoin 2026 Q1 Valuation Locked $185,500
Even after adjustment, the model shows that the market has about 100 percent of the potential increase in space。
The present report is submitted by♪ Tiger Research ♪Writing, presenting our market outlook for bitcoin in the first quarter of 2026, set a target price of $185,500。
Core elements
- Macro-stable, motion slows:THE FED'S INTEREST-RATE CYCLE IS ON TRACK WITH M2 CURRENCY SUPPLY GROWTH. NEVERTHELESS, $4.57 BILLION IN ETF OUTFLOWS HAVE IMPACTED SHORT-TERM TRENDS. THE ADVANCEMENT OF THE CARITY BILL MAY BE KEY TO ATTRACTING LARGE BANKS。
- The chain indicator is neutral:A FIRM BASE HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED FOR THE PURCHASE DEMAND AROUND $84,000; AND $98,000, AS A COST LINE FOR SHORT-TERM HOLDERS, CURRENTLY CONSTITUTES THE MAIN RESISTANCE. KEY INDICATORS SUCH AS MVRV-Z SHOW THAT THE MARKET IS CURRENTLY IN A FAIR VALUE POSITION。
- The target price is $185,500Based on the baseline valuation of $145,000 and the macrofactor adjustment of +25 per cent, we set the target price at $185,500. This means there's still about 100% room for increase over current prices。
Macro-laxity sustained, growth dynamics weakened
Bitcoin is currently handing in near $96,000. Since October 23rd, 2025Previous reportPrices have fallen by 12 per cent since then. Despite recent reversals, the macro background underpinning Bitcoin remains solid。
The Fed's path remains dove-like
Source:♪ Tiger Research ♪
The Federal Reserve reduced interest rates three times during the period from September to December 2025, cumulatively by 75 basis points, and currently interest rates are between 3.5 and 3.75 per cent. The monthly run-off is expected to drop to 3.4 per cent by the end of 2026. Although it is unlikely that there will be 50 basis points or a larger single interest rate reduction this year, with Powell’s term ending in May, the Trump administration may appoint a successor who is more dove-oriented, which will ensure that monetary easing continues。
Institutional capital outflows and continuous purchases by enterprises
Despite a favourable macro-level environment, institutional demand has recently been weak. The spot ETF recorded $4.57 billion in financial outflows during November and December, creating the largest since the launch of the product. Annual net inflows amounted to $21.4 billion, down 39 per cent from $35.2 billion last year. While the January rebalancing of assets led to partial inflows, the sustainability of the rebound remains to be observed. At the same time, the companies MicroStrategy (held 673,783 BTCs, or about 3.2 per cent of the total supply), Metaplanet and Mara continue to grow。
THE CLARITY ACT BECOMES A POLICY CATALYST
IN A CONTEXT OF STAGNANT INSTITUTIONAL DEMAND, REGULATORY PROGRESS IS BECOMING A POTENTIAL DRIVER. THE CLARITY BILL PASSED BY THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES DEFINES THE JURISDICTIONAL BOUNDARIES BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION (SEC) AND THE COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION (CFTC) AND ALLOWS BANKS TO PROVIDE DIGITAL ASSET HOSTING AND PLEDGE SERVICES. IN ADDITION, THE ACT GRANTS THE CTC REGULATORY AUTHORITY OVER THE DIGITAL COMMODITY SPOT MARKET, PROVIDING A CLEAR LEGAL FRAMEWORK FOR EXCHANGES AND BROKERS. THE SENATE BANKING COMMISSION IS SCHEDULED TO DELIBERATE ON 15 JANUARY AND, IF ADOPTED, MAY LEAD TO THE FORMAL ENTRY OF TRADITIONAL FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS THAT HAVE LONG BEEN WAITING。
Inadequate liquidity, lag in bitcoin performance
LIQUIDITY IS ANOTHER KEY VARIABLE BEYOND REGULATION. THE GLOBAL SUPPLY OF M2 WAS AT AN ALL-TIME HIGH IN THE FOURTH QUARTER OF 2024 AND SUSTAINED GROWTH. HISTORICALLY, BITCOIN TENDS TO LEAD THE LIQUIDITY CYCLE, USUALLY RISING BEFORE M2 PEAKS, AND AT PEAKS IT ENTERS A WHOLE UNIVERSE. THERE ARE CURRENT INDICATIONS OF FURTHER EXPANSION OF LIQUIDITY, WHICH MEANS THAT BITCOIN STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO RISE. IF EQUITY MARKETS APPEAR TO BE OVERVALUED, FUNDS ARE LIKELY TO ROTATE TO BITCOIN。
Macro factor down to +25% and the outlook remains robust
OVERALL, THE MACRO-DIRECTION OF INTEREST-RATE AND LIQUIDITY EXPANSION REMAINED UNCHANGED. HOWEVER, IN VIEW OF THE SLOWDOWN IN INSTITUTIONAL INFLOWS, THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE FED’S CHANGE OF LEADERSHIP AND THE RISE IN GEOPOLITICAL RISKS, WE HAVE REDUCED THE MACRO ADJUSTMENT FACTOR FROM +35% TO +25%. DESPITE SOME DOWNWARD SHIFTS, THIS WEIGHT REMAINS POSITIVE, AND WE BELIEVE THAT REGULATORY PROGRESS AND CONTINUED M2 EXPANSION WILL PROVIDE THE CORE SUPPORT FOR MEDIUM- AND LONG-TERM INCREASES。
$84,000 support and $98,000 resistance
Chain-based indicators provide complementary signals for macro-analysis. During the November 2025 adjustment period, low-purchase funds were concentrated near $84,000, creating clear support areas. Bitcoin has now broken through. The level of $98,000 corresponds to the average cost of short-term holders and constitutes a recent psychological and technical drag。
Chain data show that market sentiment is shifting from short-term panic to neutral. Key indicators such as MVRV-Z (1.25), NUPL (0.39) and aSOPR (1.00) have all been removed from the undervalued area to the equilibrium. This means that the market structure remains healthy, although the risk of a panic-driven explosion is reduced. In combination with macro- and regulatory contexts, the statistical basis for medium- and long-term price increases remains adequate。
It is noteworthy that the current market structure differs significantly from previous cycles. Increased institutional and long-term capital ratios reduce the probability of panic-driven trampling. The recent recall is more a gradual rebalancing. While short-term fluctuations are inevitable, the overall upward structure remains intact。
Target price adjusted to $185,500
APPLYING THE TVM VALUATION FRAMEWORK, WE ARRIVED AT A NEUTRAL BASELINE VALUATION OF $145,000 IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2026 (SLIGHTLY BELOW)Previous reportIt's $154,000. Combined with 0% base level adjustment and +25% macro adjustment, we set the revised target price asUSD 185,500I don't know。
We're moving the base adjustment factor from 2% to 0%. While network activity has not changed significantly, the renewed interest of the market in the BTCFi ecosystem has effectively offset some of the signs of loss. At the same time, as a result of the slowdown in institutional inflows and geopolitical factors, we have reduced the macro adjustment factor from +35 per cent to +25 per cent。
This reduction in target prices should not be seen as a sign of loss. Even after adjustment, the model shows that the market has about 100 percent of the potential increase in space. The lower benchmark prices mainly reflect recent fluctuations, while the inherent value of bitcoin will continue to rise in the medium to long term. We believe that the recent reversal is a healthy rebalancing process and that the medium- and long-term outlook remains unchanged。
