A tweet caused the oil to drop 17%

In 1974, the then United States Secretary of State, Kissinger, flew to Riyadh and entered into a deal with Saudi Arabia to change the world pattern: Saudi oil was sold only in United States dollars, and these dollars were then remitted to buy United States Treasury bonds。

At that time, Nixon had just cut off the link between the dollar and gold, the uncontrolled inflation in the United States, the depletion of the dollar ' s reserves, the massive outflow of gold and the collapse of the Bretton Woods system. At that moment, many thought that the golden age of the dollar was over。

But the deal that Kissinger entered into with Saudi Arabia set up a system that was later called the "oil dollar". It is this system that has allowed the dollar to collapse after half a century of life。

That is why, whenever people threaten to block oil corridors, it is not just an energy issue for the United States, but a shock to the very foundations of the entire dollar system. That is why that narrow waterway in the Strait of Hormuz, which has been regarded by the United States for the past 50 years as a critical node to be kept, if necessary even with military force。

This historical background is a good understanding of today's situation for us 50 years later。

In the early morning hours, most of China was asleep. However, in the global crude oil futures market, a violent shock lasting less than an hour has evaporated the market value of tens of billions of dollars。

The cause was a social media post。

The United States Secretary of Energy, Chris Wright, wrote on platform X that “the United States Navy has successfully escorted a tanker across the Strait of Hormuz to ensure that oil continues to flow to the global market”

FOLLOWING THIS TWEET, THE WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE FELL OFF A CLIFF IN A MATTER OF MINUTES, AT A RATE OF 17 PER CENT, AND AT A RATE OF $80 PER BARREL. IN PREVIOUS WEEKS, AS A RESULT OF THE TENSE SITUATION IN THE MIDDLE EAST, BRENT CRUDE OIL HAD JUST SKYROCKETED FROM $70 TO $120。

This moment is a nightmare for traders who are betting on rising oil prices。

However, the scene quickly reversed。

Less than an hour later, the White House Press Secretary, Karoline Leavitt, made it clear at the press conference that the United States Navy was not currently escorting any tankers. Subsequently, the Minister of Energy, Chris Wright, deleted the post without any explanation. Oil prices rebounded, but were not able to return to their original positions。

One post, from publication to deletion, for less than 60 minutes. But it leaves more than one hour behind in global financial markets。

Since the escalation of the conflict between Iraq and the United States at the end of February, the playing field around oil has intensified. This narrow waterway, which carries about one fifth of the world's crude oil transport, was suddenly closed, especially after Iran declared a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, with a huge impact on the global energy market. As the situation escalated, international oil prices skyrocketed from $70 to $120 per barrel in a few days, and the energy market became highly tense。

Almost all traders are waiting for the same signal: when will the Strait of Hormuz reopen? This collective anxiety can trigger sharp price fluctuations at any point. The rapid decline triggered by the Minister of Energy's post was a manifestation of that sentiment。

SO, WHY WOULD OIL PRICES FALL 17% IN JUST A FEW MINUTES? BECAUSE IT'S HARD FOR HUMANS TO REACT SO QUICKLY, BUT ALGORITHMS DO. IN TODAY'S FINANCIAL MARKETS, A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE VOLUME OF TRANSACTIONS COMES FROM HF TRADING ALGORITHMS AND AI TRADING SYSTEMS. THEY SCAN THE ENTIRE INTERNET IN REAL TIME, INCLUDING THE SOCIAL MEDIA ACCOUNTS OF GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS, CAPTURE KEYWORDS AND AUTOMATICALLY PLACE ORDERS。

There are three key words in the post: Navy (Navy), Escorted (Designation), Hormuz (Hormuz). The algorithm identifies these words and, combined with the syntax of the context, quickly draws the conclusion that the blockade was lifted, supplies resumed and the logic of rising oil prices weakened。

So the program was sold immediately。

It all happened in about 0.003 seconds。

Algorithm does not call to confirm whether the tanker has actually crossed the Strait, but only recognizes the text and pursues speed. An unverified post, in this institutional "collective unconscious" form, was evaporated by instantaneous exchange to the market value of tens of billions of dollars。

A genuine tanker crossing the Strait of Hormuz requires hours of navigation, physical military escort and fuel costs and real risks. And a note on escorts took only 0.003 seconds, causing the price of this large commodity to fluctuate。

In other words, crude oil, once dominated by supply and demand fundamentals, stock data and production agreements, is now, to some extent, not much different from a Meme。

During the last U.S. election period, Trump and Mask captured sensitively, an information age, where they created the Truth Social and bought Twitter。

As the information age has evolved, the social accounts of government officials have become one of the most sensitive sources of information for the market. This also means power itself, and it is beginning to have some meme properties: very fast transmission, very high emotional concentrations, and extremely vulnerable to misinterpretation and magnification。

TRADITIONAL POLICY MESSAGES ARE SLOW AND RIGOROUS. THE WHITE HOUSE STATEMENTS, THE DEPARTMENT OF STATE BULLETIN AND THE MINISTRY OF DEFENCE PRESS CONFERENCES NATURALLY INCLUDE VERIFICATION, PROOFREADING AND LAYER CONFIRMATION. BUT WHEN OFFICIALS PUBLISH POLICY-RELEVANT INFORMATION DIRECTLY ON X, THESE LINKS ARE BYPASSED。

What we can predict is that, further into the AI Age, the speed at which information is captured and traded will rise exponentially, and the surge will fall in only milliseconds。

If we look at it at a more macro level, this may be an even greater change: we are entering an era of "asset-wide memeization". Almost any financial assets may be driven at some point by emotions, narratives and social media。

Kissinger spent 50 years of his life in United States dollars using oil. But he probably wouldn't have thought that one day oil itself would become a meme。

There is no asset that has truly unbreakable basic surfaces of the river. All moats are intrinsically based on a certain consensus. This consensus is more fragile and dangerous than ever, with the double acceleration of social media and algorithmic transactions。

Maybe in a sense, it's also Meme's victory。