Arrested from Maduro to the May ceasefire, the inside network around Trump

"The insider" is probably the existence of shareholders who love and hate. Love is because if you keep up with them, it's like knowing the answer in advance; hate is because they have cards you can never see。

However, even the most well-informed insiders have their own limitations in the stock market. You know the United States is going to hit Iran, but the exact increase in the numbers of heavily associated military engineering units, when they will rise, and whether they will be hit by macromassive emotions are variables beyond control。

And the five insiders that we're talking about today made $1.3 million out of the information gap without taking into account the target, the time of entry, or even the need to expose their identities. Among them, some traded half an hour before the beginning of the American-Israeli conflict, and some made 20 times more profit from the double deal。

Their "discovery channel" comes from Polymarket, a predictive market platform based on the anonymity of the block chain. Unlike trading in stocks, commodities and so on, it is projected that the market will be traded "will this happen?"。

With the knowledge that "Trump is going to make peace with Iran next week", the least risky way to profit is to predict with others that "Mei will meet next week."。

Today, we're going to take five accounts from the data level to see why they fit the "Inners" profile。

20,000 principals, two deals, 20 times double

Since 2026, Polymarket has had three extraordinary geopolitical transactions: the arrest of Maduro, the United States-Israel coalition against Iran, and the declaration of a ceasefire between the United States and Iran. These three transactions contributed a total of $860 million to the Platform ' s transactions。

And the five accounts that we are referring to today, through successive " gambling" of these global geopolitical events, have made a huge fortune in a very short time. For example, account 1 successfully forecast the time of the American-Israeli conflict at $20,000, and once again, the US-Iraq ceasefire, with all its benefits, earned $400,000 and 20 times more。

Even more strangely, these accounts were registered in December 2025 and February of this year: one before Maduro was captured, the other on the eve of the American-Israeli conflict. The total number of markets in which they participate on this platform is small, as if the purpose was to participate in a game that they know will win。

If the time of registration, the small number of transactions and the high profitability are not sufficient to prove their insider image, it is truly suspicious that two things follow。

"A little bet, a big bet because I know I can't lose."

One of the biggest differences between gamblers and insiders is that insiders are aware of the results of the bets, so dare to bet on the determination of sexual opportunities. And the identity of the five accounts in this respect is a perfect interpretation of their differences from gamblers。

By calculating the proportion of each account ' s contribution to its total contribution in each of the three cases, it can be seen that, while the amount of input in each of the five accounts is uneven, their ratio data is highly consistent. Even in the most dispersed accounts, 93 per cent of the funds are held in the relevant markets。

This concentration is statistically distinct. Even geopolitically focused and analytical speculators tend to spread over a dozen markets to manage uncertainty. The choice of the five accounts is more like: a few targets have been identified, almost all of the chips have been put in, and other markets are not important。

Twenty-one minutes before the war

If the concentration of funds is the profile of the picture, then the timing of the build-up is the most direct proof。

At around 1420 hours Beijing time on 28 February, the Iranian capital, Tehran, heard explosions and Israel announced an attack on Iran. At the same time, the probability that the "United States will strike Iran by 28 February" market has jumped from 20% to 99% in a short time, and then settles。

Of the three accounts participating in the market, two were betted "yes" on the day of the strike, of which the first bet of account 3 occurred 21 minutes before the strike. This bet is four times higher in half an hour。

The "United States of America x Iran will cease fire before April 15" is even more alarming. The three accounts involved in the market had bought the "yes" option as early as the first half of the ceasefire, and their positions had shrunk by 80 per cent in the next two weeks, when tensions had increased。

At the beginning of April, when most macroanalysts and think tanks claimed that “the conflict was about to escalate into a ground war”, the three accounts were investing more money and it was certain that the ceasefire would land within the next two weeks。

Beijing time, April 8, 06:32, Trump declared a ceasefire in the South Social, with a probability of going from 20% straight to 100%. The three accounts profited nearly $750,000 through this ceasefire。

It's a loss, but it's more the inside picture

The five accounts are not impeccable - account 3 and account 4 are in the market of "Is Maduro going down in 2025?" At first glance, the loss was sufficient to clear them of their suspicion as insiders。

But if we were to interview the media the day after Trump captured Maduro, the loss would have been the image of two insiders。

In an interview with Fox News on 4 January 2026, Trump revealed that the United States military had planned to carry out operations in Venezuela on 29 December 2025, but had waited several days because the weather window was not suitable and was finally implemented on 3 January。

In other words, if the weather were to work, Maduro would be arrested in 2025, and "Yes" would be settled if "Maduro would leave office in 2025," and the loss of $120,000 in both accounts would be turned into a profit of over $400,000。

They lose in the weather, not in the misjudgement of the events themselves. The two continued to bet "Maduro's fall before January 31, 2026" with almost $300,000。

Precedents already exist: people arrested for this

This is not the first time that anyone has come to Polymarket arbitrage with a military insider。

In June 2025, Israel launched a military operation against Iran that lasted 12 days. Subsequently, the Israeli authorities investigated and prosecuted two men: an Israeli Air Force reservist major and his civilian associates。

According to the indictment, while Israeli warplanes were taking off to attack Iran, the Major informed his associates that the latter had immediately bought the relevant market in Polymucket and profited approximately US$ 163,000 from the bet。

The incident in the American Commission has also drawn the attention of United States law enforcement agencies. Fortune reported that a number of suspicious account transactions that had occurred during the incident had attracted the attention of law enforcement authorities in the Southern District of New York and had subsequently met with representatives of Polymarket to discuss “potential misconduct”。

Representative Ritchie Torres subsequently proposed legislation to restrict the participation of government employees in contracts for political-related events. There are currently no public prosecutions, but the federal involvement in the investigation itself has shown that this is not an isolated coincidence。

Israel's arrest has taken one thing to heart: it is true that someone came to Polymarket with military informers and that someone is facing prosecution for it. The five accounts analysed in this paper present a more systematic version — the new account, the high concentration of funds, the exceptional precision of entry, and the withdrawal of the entire body after the event was settled。

Instead of discussing the legal risks these insiders may face, there is another level of potential opportunity: when insider funds go into the forecast market, market prices themselves become a signal that we can see the contours of the future before the event。