It's the second half of the macro current.

Original by: Beep News

ON APRIL 20, 20TH, 20TH, 20TH, 20TH, NEW FIRE GROUP (01611.HK) SUDDENLY RAISED ITS STOCK PRICE, AT ONE POINT BY 11%。

It was triggered by a message that both the financial and encryption circles had been detonated: the former chief economist of Northeast securities, Pyramid, formally joined the New Fire Group and became chief economist。

THE NEWS WAS FIRST DISCLOSED BY THE NEWS AGENCY " FRONT LINE " , WHICH WAS IMMEDIATELY CONFIRMED BY THE NEW FIRE GROUP. PENG HIMSELF SAID TO THE MEDIA: "THERE IS A CONNECTION BETWEEN FICC AND C."。

OF THESE, FICC REFERS TO FIXED EARNINGS, FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND BULK COMMODITIES, AND C REFERS TO ENCRYPTED CURRENCY. THE MAIN THRUST OF HIS ACCESSION WAS TO INTEGRATE DIGITAL ASSETS INTO THE GLOBAL ASSET ALLOCATION FRAMEWORK, PROVIDING MACRO-SEARCH AND ASSET ALLOCATION SUPPORT TO NEW INSTITUTIONAL CLIENTS。

This was the first time that he had returned to public view in a formal capacity almost a year after leaving the Northeast Securities. For him, this is not just a change of house, but more like a re-opening of a career narrative。

The first half was the culmination of the traditional financial system and was interrupted by controversy and illness; the second half was in Hong Kong, where the choice was made in the encrypted track, at a crossroads where traditional financial and digital assets were slowly integrating。

Atypical chief path

in 2004 & nbsp; peng entered the lehman brothers in 2004 and has since served as the global macro-shock strategy design manager at the solomon international investment group, responsible for the analysis of monetary, commodity and large asset linkages for almost four years。

Returned at the end of 2008, they were transferred to institutions such as Sandong High Newly Delivered, Middle- and Medium-Range Futures, Galaxy Securities and Ansone Securities。

In February 2020, he joined Northeast Securities as Chief Economist. His approach to this position is different from that of most of his colleagues: to view his own media as the main battlefield。

HE USED ANALOGIES AND METAPHORS TO DESCRIBE ECONOMIC LOGIC AND STYLE IN A PERFORMING WAY, WITH HIS MICROBLOGGING ACCOUNT, "THE FINANCIAL WORLD OF PENG", ACCUMULATING OVER 4 MILLION FANS AND SHIVERING FANS REACHING 148.50 MILLION. AT RED BOOK AND B STATIONS, FANS ALSO ACCUMULATE TO 355,000 AND 773,000, RESPECTIVELY。

In 2024, he published Witnessing the Inverse Wave, explaining changes in the global asset logic after 2016 using the three-tiered framework of "political/allocation-macro-asset"。

This set-up gave him considerable visibility in the financial and economic circles and became an analyst who could present complex macro logic in a common way to ordinary investors。

The consequences of a speech

In late November 2024, Fu Peng was invited to speak at the end of the year at the Shanghai Intra-Sea Activities of HSBC Private Wealth Planning, on the decline in effective demand in China, the contraction of middle income, the increasing fragmentation of consumption, and what he saw as the difficulty of replicating the impact of current stimulus policies in 2008。

The recordings and manuscripts were subsequently widely disseminated on the Internet and were mounted on multiplatforms, and his tweets and short video accounts were blocked for nearly six months。

There was a claim that he was cancelled as a result of a custodial interview. Peng responded publicly, directly shelled HSBC, tanned his chat record and said, "The lawyer's letter is on the way and awaits your apology"。

Northeast securities have also made a statement: there have been no recent regulatory interviews. HSBC's response, which stated that it was "in the process of learning about the situation", has since snuck out of public opinion, without any follow-up, and ultimately not。

During the period of closure of accounts, the public channel of expression of the platinum was significantly narrowed。

On 30 April 2025, he officially left the Northeast Securities Office, explaining that he had just completed two major surgeries, which required more than six months of rest。

Predictive capabilities and boundaries

There is a lot of talk about God's predictions among Plum fans, covering the 2008 financial crisis, the recovery of the Japanese stock market, and the turn of the Chinese property cycle. He has continued to emphasize globalization and changes in the middle of interest rates since 2016, with some subsequent validation of some of the frameworks。

However, his forecasts were uneven. There are clear deviations in the direction of short-term exchange rates, policy-specific windows, some of which are judged by critics to be too pessimistic, or to be manifestly inaccurate under policy intervention。

He himself acknowledged that the macro study captured structural variables, not data for the next quarter. This is both a self-statement of methodology and a preventive interpretation of short-term irregularities。

He provided a framework to explain the world, not a predictive tool that could be stabilized. And portray him as a prophet who sees in everything, and is a misreader。

One of his strengths is his ability to express complex macro logic in a common way and to maintain a relatively independent judgement. This enables his influence to reach a wider audience, a feature that is what the New Fire Group needs most。

Why the new fire

In theory, there are more than one option to pay back. The Chamber of Traditional Securities welcomed him back, and the position of the chief economist was no stranger to him, but he chose a new fire。

The space for traditional finance is shrinking, and he should know better than anyone what it means to return to the system for someone who speaks so straight in HSBC speeches。

HIS COMPETENCY FRAMEWORK IS NOT JUST A TRADITIONAL ASSET. FICC IS HIS AREA OF EXPERTISE. THE ASSOCIATION OF ENCRYPTED ASSETS WITH MACRO LOGIC BECOMES INCREASINGLY EVIDENT AFTER INSTITUTIONALIZATION. INTEREST RATE CYCLES, UNITED STATES DOLLAR LIQUIDITY, GEOPOLITICAL RISK PREMIUMS, THESE VARIABLES WORK IN BOTH TRADITIONAL AND DIGITAL ASSETS。

There is also a more pragmatic element: re-emergence requires the right stage。

The New Fire Group operates and is listed within the framework of compliance in Hong Kong; at the same time, its size and stages determine that it is sufficiently flexible to allow a person of opinion to build a new research system. This is a completely different situation from that of playing a permanent role in a large, mature institution。

Why does the new fire need him

THE NEW FIRE CORPORATION, CURRENTLY DESIGNATED AS THE DIGITAL ASSET MANAGEMENT AGENCY FOR HIGH NET VALUE CUSTOMERS, HOLDS THE HONG KONG SECURITIES COMMISSION ' S 1ST, 4TH AND 9TH CLASS PLATES AND THE TCSP TRUST, AND IS ONE OF THE EARLY PLAYERS IN HONG KONG TO ACHIEVE FULL-LICENSED VIRTUAL ASSET MANAGEMENT。

In 2025, Onh Xiaoqi became CEO, introducing the Bitfire Premium Service, buying majority shares in the Japanese licensed exchange BitTrade, leaving the diaspora, focusing on family offices, listed companies and institutional clients. At the end of March 2026, the company changed its name to New Fire Group Holdings Ltd。

FINANCIALLY, TOTAL REVENUE FOR THE FISCAL YEAR 2025 WAS HK$ 86.61 BILLION, AN INCREASE OF MORE THAN 450 PER CENT OVER THE SAME YEAR, BUT THE INCREASE WAS MAINLY DUE TO LOW-MORI ENCRYPTED OTC TRADING VOLUMES, AND THE COMPANY AS A WHOLE CONTINUED TO LOSE. MANAGEMENT HAS SET 2026 AS A PROFIT-TURNING YEAR WITH CONSIDERABLE PRESSURE。

Compliance frameworks have been put in place and growth figures are in place, but what is really missing at this stage of the fire is not traffic, but trust。

The clients it serves, the partners in the family offices, the financial directors of listed companies, private investors who have accumulated considerable wealth, lack information, data, a narrative framework that assures them of digital assets, and a professional image from the traditional financial world。

THE LOGIC OF THIS IS QUITE STRAIGHTFORWARD: "GIVEN PLATINUM A DEEP GLOBAL GENERAL ABILITY TO STUDY, ACCURATE MARKET MOBILITY INSIGHT, IT WILL BECOME THE TOP STRATEGIC BRAIN OF THE COMPANY'S BUSINESS...ASSISTING CLIENTS TO BE CERTAIN IN THE TIMES OF THE FICC+C."

The background of PIF and hedge funds, the public image of the independent voice, and the millions of-level influence constitute an identifiable professional signal for the traditional wealthy people who are assessing whether to allocate more funds to digital assets。

This is a transaction required by each party。

An inconclusive start

On the one hand, a person who has come out of the traditional financial system, after having experienced high points, controversy and a forced interruption, is rediscovering a space in which to continue to express and play

On the other hand, a company that is trying to move from a trading platform to an institutional service provider is trying to create a language that is more easily understood by traditional capital。

Can the attraction of macro narratives translate into real institutional inflows? How long can the independent style of Peng be maintained within the institutional framework of a listed company

Is the trust of traditional rich clients in digital assets ultimately built on framework identity or is it still awaiting further clarity on regulation

This will take time to verify。