Hyperliquid, can you win by killing the forecast market
By Zhou, ChainCatcher
In May 2026, Hyperliquid formally launched the predictive market function Outcomes (results contract) on the main online HIP-4 incident contract。On the first day on the line, the nominal trade reached 6.05 million contracts, about 0.7 per cent of the projected market volume that dayI don't know。By contrast, on that date Kalshi had about 546 million cards and Polymarket about 190 million, with wide differences in volume。
However, according to DL News, its first BTC-priced single-day transaction volume for the two-dollar contract is about three times the combined market volume of Polymarket and Kalshi。
The Coinglass data show that the HYPE token has increased by nearly 60 per cent since the beginning of the year, and by about 42 per cent over the past 90 days。
A platform that already holds more than 70 per cent of the market for a lasting contract in the chain, now officially enters the completely different logic of predicting the market。Hyperliquid, can you copy myth again the last time you successfully opened a commercial currency battle with HIP-3
I. Expansion from perp DEX to HIP-3: HyperliquidBottom Gas
HyperliquidThe expansion is based on the actual accumulation of the past few years. It relies on high-performance order books, very low cost and noKYC, from2023The gradual attraction of professional traders and marketers began to create a strong liquidity base。
The success of the HIP-3 is an important precedent. When it came online in October 2025, Hyperliquid opened a contract for the renewal of unlicensed goods and stocks. The Platform quickly reaped the traditional asset dividend in the light of the dramatic developments in commodities and equity。
According to the dataUnsettled contracts peaked at $1 billion, with 24-hour transactions exceeding $4.8 billion many times, of which about $3 billion per week, $700 million per week of gold and more than $1.2 billion per day of stock trading。
This advantage is even more pronounced in the light of the geopolitical situation. During the escalation in Iran, the price of crude oil fluctuated sharply, with a single-day breakthrough of $2.2 billion, after Bitcoin, in Hyperliquid crude oil, becoming the second largest trading variety on the platform。
This amply demonstrates that the mobile ships of Hyperliquid not only operate within the category of encryption, but also successfully absorb the spillover demand from traditional financial markets, attracting a large number of centralized exchange users and traditional traders。
THE HIP-4 PROJECTION OF MARKETS IS JUST ANOTHER EXPANSION ATTEMPT ALONG THE SAME LOGIC。But this time, it faced a moat of a completely different nature than before。
IIHIP-4 DIFFERENCE IN TRANSACTION INFRASTRUCTURE
The HIP-4 is ostensibly a predictive market and is essentially a binary right and a boundary option embedded in the whole Hyperliquid derivative system。It uses a full-collateral mechanism, with no leverage, no blast risk, contract prices between 0.001 and 0.999 to reflect in real time the implied probability of an event, while supporting non-linear settlements that give users tactical flexibility closer to traditional options。
Hyperliquid does not simply replicate Polymark, but places the tool in the existing high-performance CLOB order book and matching engine of the platform。
THIS MEANS THAT THE HIP-4 FULLY SHARES THE SAME ACCOUNT, THE SAME BOND POOL AND THE SAME LIQUIDITY ENVIRONMENT WITH A LIVE, PERMANENT CONTRACT, WHERE USERS CAN ACHIEVE REAL CROSS-PRODUCT HEDGES AND RE-USE OF FUNDS。
of whichI don't knowCost advantages are most direct. According to official documentsHIP-4 CONTRACT OPENING FREE OF CHARGE, WITH ONLY A SMALL FEE CHARGED FOR WAREHOUSING OR SETTLEMENTThe same is true for casting. This design has significant cost advantages for high-frequency traders and large players compared to the top 2 per cent of the winner's fees for Polymark。
In his report, the Bernstein analyst noted that the dualist contract provided a clearer way for macroeconomic-focused funds to hedge event risks than traditional instruments, and that premiums, maximum losses and gains were known in advance, which was the value reinforced by the zero opening rate structure。
Account integration is its structural highlight。DEALERS CAN HOLD BTC LONG-TERM SILOS AND FORECAST RESULTS IN THE SAME USDC BOND ACCOUNTFor example, while looking at BTC, targeting macro events such as non-farm employment data or Fed resolutions through HIP-4 contracts. This combination of zero friction is currently difficult in the separate accounts systems of Polymark and KalshiReallyAchieved。
InstitutionsSupportOn the other hand, the three platforms follow different paths。
I've been informedI don't knowHyperliquid, relying on the existing derivative infrastructure, FalconX has launched its main broker bond financing service, Ripple Prime has listed it as the first cooperative DeFi platform, and Angelage Digital supports the hosting and pledge of HIPE。
Kalshi took the lead on institutional transactions, completing the first major customised transaction involving Greenlight Companies, Junp Trading, and the agency broker Clear Street became the first future commission to provide regulated forecast market clearing services for hedge funds。
Polymark received ICE investments of more than $1.6 billion, with shareholders including General Catallyst, Point 72, Founders Fund, and the introduction of professional marketing services in partnership with Junp Trading for liquidity, which is now valued at nearly $15 billion。
IIIReal barriers beyond technology
Predicting the core competitiveness of markets is much more than technologyI don't knowIt's..And..It is a content and operating business that requires the continuous availability of attractive hot topic to maintain the order book depth and user activity。
In a report, Galaxy Research wrote:The biggest constraint on forecast markets is liquidity, which is rooted in the supply of topics。The limited depth of the order book in most markets may result in significant fluctuations in the rate of compensation for thousands of dollars. A reliable probability signal can be created only if the hot spot market that attracts participants continues。
Realistic data also confirm this challenge. According to Dune Analytics, after HIP-4 went online, Hyperliquid projected only about $3.95 million, or less than 0.02 per cent, of the total nominal market turnover. The cumulative nominal transactions of Polymark and Kalshi exceeded $80 billion. Although Hyperliquid achieved early bright spots in BTC price type contracts, the overall scale is still in the initial stages。
THE HIP-4 MARKET IS STILL DOMINATED BY BTC PRICE-ORIENTED CONTRACTS, WITH LONG-TERM ISSUES SUCH AS POLITICS, SPORTS, ENTERTAINMENT AND SO ON。According to ChainstackDEPLOYMENT OF NEW MARKETS REQUIRES A MILLION HYPES, TWICE THE HIP-3 THRESHOLDAs a result, the pace of expansion of content diversity may be limited, mainly by a small number of large developers with greater financial power。
There have been cases in the industry that have shown that there are many people in the countryIt's harder to run than infrastructure. YesI don't know. For example, in January, Opinion reached 26 per cent of the city, but then fell rapidly to about 3.3 per cent. The Dragonfly partner Haseeb Qureshi also predicted that 90 per cent of the projected market projects might be unsuspected by the end of the year。
There are also potential risks associated with adjudicative mechanisms. Price-type contracts can be objectively settled through prophecies, but once political or sports events are disputed, credibility will be put to the test. Chainstack Technical Report mentions that HIP-4 early community documents are mostly derived from test network reverse analysis, official normative documentsStill thereProgressively perfected. By contrast, Polymarket has accumulated experience in the handling of disputes through community voting mechanisms。
In addition, there are structural errors in user images. The Galaxy Research report indicates that Kalshi is designing primary, intermediate and advanced interfaces for different user-level complexity with the models of FanDuel and DraftKings。The core user for Hyperliquid is a hard-core trader in custom high-frequency transactionsIn contrast, the major incremental users of the forecast market tend to prefer recreational and event-driven play。This difference is not simply an adaptation of the interface that can be quickly bridged。
Taken together, Hyperliquid is somewhat competitive in the forecast market for encrypted price and macrodata categories. However, to replicate the ruling success of the perp DEX period, it requires a proven ability to operate the topic, build credibility and attract users。
Four, this is..A two-way invasion competition
From an industry-wide perspective, the projected market as a whole is expanding rapidly. According to chain data, market transactions have been projected to exceed $10 billion for four consecutive months since 2026. The Bernstein Institute lists it as one of the three main core trends in the digital asset field, paralleled by monetization and stabilization。
Urban share, Kalshi performanceMoreNotable, from 29.4 per cent in January to 47 per cent, the number of transactions rose to a high monthly level for many months. Polymarket, after opening full fees at the beginning of the year, had a slight decline in the volume of transactions in April compared to March, but still exceeded $4 billion, with the municipal share rising from 27.9 per cent to 38.9 per cent, which is still the second largest。
The double oligarchy has been further consolidated by high growth ratesJust..MeaningI don't knowHyperliquid entered a highly concentrated market with an accelerated influx of traditional capital and a significantly higher competitive threshold。
On the other hand, the Centralized Exchange is accelerating the distribution of forecast markets。According toPublicInformationI don't knowMEXC launched primary forecast market functionality in March 2026, GateBe the first direct integrationPolymarketCEX；In April, François projected the market through the Predict.fun integration chain and partially covered the cost subsidy, Crypto.comYeahTHE CFTC COMPLIANCE FORECASTING CONTRACT IS BEING ADVANCED；CoinbasewithKalshiCooperation, already in America50State-run forecasting of market functions。
In the meantimeThe boundary between the market and the derivative track is predicted to be broken simultaneouslyI don't know. Polymarket is preparing leverage-driven BTC, British Wida and gold contracts; Kalshi has launched a permanent contract product called Timeless and has completed a major transaction with a customized institution. Hyperliquid also invaded its main site while invading the forecast market。
It is interesting to note that one of the co-authors of the HIP-4 proposal, John Wang, head of the encryption operation in Kalshi, has announced a partnership in March 2026。It showsThe relationship between Hyperliquid and Kalshi is not purely competitive and there is some room for cooperation and integration in the future。
Delphi Digital says:The real breakthrough is not in competition with the frontal platform, but in the fragmentation of technology and different types of users。Convergence terminals and advanced analytical tools meet professional traders, while social interfaces leverage wider markets for general entertainment。
The entire industry is moving towards a layer of infrastructure that predicts the integration of markets and derivatives, taking the lead in a seamless platform that will create structural advantages on this track。
Concluding remarks
Overall, Hyperliquid has a relatively strong integrated infrastructure advantageI don't knowOtherWith a strong liquidity, shared bond structure and a zero-cost design, there is a certain competitive advantage in encrypted price classes and macrodata forecasting markets. But it's not too difficult to fully replicate the ruling level of the perp DEX period。
Predicting the nature of the marketAnd..It is a content and business, and HIP-4 needs to prove its ability in terms of the supply of topics, the building of credibility and the adaptation of user images. These areas are not the traditional strengths of Hyperliquid and are difficult to achieve in the short term。
In any case, Hyperliquid has become one of the most vigilant rivals in the chain of centralized exchanges such as Money-An. Every time it expands, it compresses CEX's living space, and it reshapes the entire derivative market。
The upcoming opening of the World Cup in June 2026 will be the first major test after the HIP-4 unlicensed creation of full-fledged open doors. By that time, Hyperliquid is expected to turn a partial advantage into an overall breakthrough if there is stable and large-scale liquidity in the political and sports-like markets; otherwise, it is predicting that the market may simply provide an additional hedge tool for the original perp users, making it difficult to become a true track player。
