THE U.S. STOCK IPO MARKET IS REOPENING。

This time, the market did not wait for ordinary technology companies to be on the market, but rather for a large group of companies that could rewrite the market size at the global level: SpaceX, Openai, Anthropic, Databricks, and a group of crypto-native companies and financial technology companies。

FOR THE TRADITIONAL MARKET, THIS IS THE RE-OPENING OF THE IPO WINDOW; FOR THE MONEY RING, THIS MAY BE ANOTHER FORM OF LIQUIDITY COMPETITION。

Because today's encrypted market is not the completely inner-cycle market in 2020. Stabilizing coins, ETFs, listed mining companies, Coinbase, Circle, Kraken, Robinhod, MicroStrategy, are connected to the chain market and the United States stock market. Global venture capital is found in the same dollar pool: it can buy BTC ETF or AI shares; it can buy high FDV new currency; it can buy "super narrative assets" like SpaceX, OpenAI。

SO, ONE OF THE CENTRAL ISSUES OF THIS YEAR'S IPO BOOM IS: WILL THE FORWARD RISK PREFERENCES OF THE PART ON WHICH THE MONEY RING IS MOST DEPENDENT BE CONSTRICTED WHEN MORE MAINSTREAM, MORE COMPLIANT, AND MORE EASILY PLACED HIGH-VOLATILE ASSETS ON THE MARKET

REOPEN IPO WINDOW FOR U.S. STOCK

In the first quarter of 2026, the U.S. stock IPO market was not really hot. The first quarter review of Renaissance Capital stated that there were 35 IPOs in the Q1 US share, raising approximately $9.9 billion, and that the market recovery was once delayed by volatility。

However, after the second quarter, the atmosphere rose significantly. By mid-May, the U.S. stock IPO pass and distribution rhythm were accelerating. According to Kiplinger, according to Renaissance Capital data, as of 13 May, 93 IPOs had been handed over this year, 57 had been issued, raising approximately $20.7 billion, an increase of 86 per cent。

That is not the point。

What really re-pricing the IPO boom is SpaceX's release of IPO files, and follow-up of OpenAI, Anthropic and other AI giants. Reuters reported that SpaceX targets raised approximately $75 billion, with an estimate of nearly $2 trillion. If eventually landed, it would not only exceed historical IPOs such as Saudi Aramco, Alibaba, SoftBank, but could also become the largest single IPO in the history of global capital markets。

IF YOU WANT TO DESCRIBE THIS YEAR'S IPO BOOM IN THE U.S. STOCK IN ONE WAY OR THE OTHER, IT'S CALLED "THE WHALE DANCE."。

"The Whale Dance."

SpaceX Starship

The core is SpaceX。

According to Reuters and numerous media reports, SpaceX has entered the IPO sprint phase, with a target estimate of about $175 trillion to $2 trillion, with potential fund-raising likely to reach $50 billion to $75 billion. This figure is exaggerated in any market: Saudi Aramco raised about $29.4 billion in IPOs in 2019, and Alibaba raised about $25 billion in IPOs in 2014 for US equity, and SpaceX may have targeted two to three times them。

SpaceX is unique in that it is not a single business company. The market did not buy a "rocket launch" but rather a mixture of Starlink, satellite Internet, deep space transport, AI data centres, defence orders and Elon Musk personal credit. It is more like a super narrative collection than a company that traditional financial models can easily explain。

The second is OpenAI。

According to WSJ and Reuters, OpenAI is preparing a confidential IPO declaration and the market expects its listing valuation to reach trillions of dollars. OpenAI means more than ChatGPT, but the price anchor for the entire AI application layer, model layer and enterprise software portal. Once OpenAI is on the market, for the first time the United States shares a truly "pure AI platform" core asset。

The third is Anthropic。

Anthropic is very frequent this year in financing and IPO rumours. Market reports indicate that Anthropic is discussing large-scale financing, that valuations may enter hundreds of billions of dollars or more and are considered to be one of the first AI companies to be listed later this year. In contrast to OpenAI, Anthropic is more business-level, compliance, security and large customer markets. If it were to be listed, investors would consider it as a direct counterpart to OpenAI。

The fourth category is mature unicorns like Databricks, Klarna, Chime。

These companies do not necessarily compare to SpaceX, OpenAI, but they represent another direction: after the 2022-2024 valuation compression, high-quality private technology companies retried the open market. Databricks, an AI data infrastructure representative, Klarna and Chime are the windbenders of the return of financial technology to the IPO market。

Category V, encryption companies。

Circe had already completed listing in 2025 and proved that the market was willing to price stable currency operations. Kraken has also been able to spread IPO-related developments on several occasions this year, and although the rhythm is subject to repeated environmental impacts in the market, the listing of crypto is no longer marginal. For the money ring, this means a change: the narrative that happened in the chain is being securitized by the United States stock。

IMPACT OF IPO TIDE ON THE CURRENCY RING

ON THE FACE OF IT, THE U.S. STOCK IPO IS NOT THE SAME THING AS CURRENCY CIRCULATION。

SpaceX listing does not directly require investors to redeem USDT; OpenAI requisitions do not automatically lead to a fall in the chain. But in a dollar-dominated global venture asset market, they compete for the same thing: a risk budget。

ESPECIALLY THE MOST VULNERABLE PART OF THE CIRCLE IS NOT THE BTC, NOR THE ETH, BUT THE LONG TAIL ASSET。

Now the encryption market is not completely free. DeFiLlama shows that the total market value of the stable currency is over $32 billion, near historical highs. The problem is that these moneys are less like long-term buys, but more like standby funds。

April 2026 Exchange Review of CoinDesk Research shows that in April, the availability of the centralized trading platform fell to about $1.05 trillion, a 14 per cent decline in the ring ratio, the lowest since November 2023; total turnover of the spot and derivatives was about $4.61 trillion, the fourth consecutive month of decline. At the same time, however, derivatives accounted for about 77 per cent of total transactions, and unsettled contracts remained high。

This suggests that the circle is becoming "short-sighted" rather than risk-free。

THE FUNDS ARE WILLING TO BE BTC, ETH, ETF ARBITRAGE, PERMANENT CONTRACTS, SHORT-TERM FLUCTUATIONS, BUT THEY ARE NOT WILLING TO HOLD HIGH N.D.V. ON A LONG-TERM BASIS, TO LOCK UP AND TO PAY FOR APPLICATIONS IN ADVANCE AFTER THREE YEARS. IN OTHER WORDS, THE MONEY WAS STILL THERE, BUT IT BECAME SHORTER。

THAT'S THE KIND OF PRESSURE AMERICA'S GIANT IPO COULD BRING。

If this year's market also sees assets like SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic on the market, the funds will naturally be compared: Why not buy more mainstream, more compliant, more institutionally configured AI and space assets

For the currency circle, the shock does not necessarily reflect an immediate decline in the market value of the stable currency, but may reflect three more minor changes:

First, Altcoin's rebound is getting shorter and less sustainable。

SECOND, THERE HAS BEEN A DECLINE IN THE ABSORPTIVE CAPACITY OF NEW CURRENCIES, ESPECIALLY HIGH FDV AND LOW-FLOWING DISK PROJECTS。

THIRD, MARKET ATTENTION SHIFTED FROM A CHAIN NARRATIVE TO A SUPER-IPO FOR US STOCK, WITH ONLY BTC, ETH, STABILIZATION CURRENCY AND A FEW U.S.-RELATED PROXY ASSETS LIQUID。

This is not a "mobility crisis" in the traditional sense of the word, but a crisis more familiar in the currency circles: money, but no one wants to take your turn。

NASDAQ'S NEW RULES MAKE IPO MORE LIKE A BLACK HOLE

This year there is also an easy-to-neglected structural change: the "fast-in" mechanism of Nasraq-100。

The new rules, which entered into force on 1 May 2026, show that the market value of the eligible large new listed companies can be included in the index as soon as 15 transactions are listed, if the market value ranking is 40 above the baseq-100 component shares and other conditions are met。

This means SpaceX, a giant IPO like this, not only attracts active money on the day of listing, but also could trigger passive money buy-in quickly. The ETF and index funds that track Nasdaq-100 need to be adjusted in very short notice。

There are also two levels of market impact。

ON THE ONE HAND, IT INCREASES THE ATTRACTIVENESS OF THE GIANT IPO. BECAUSE INVESTORS KNOW THAT, AS LONG AS THE COMPANY IS LARGE ENOUGH, THEY MAY ENTER THE INDEX VERY SOON AFTER THEY ARE LISTED, WITH A PASS-THROUGH CONNECTION。

On the other hand, it also exacerbates short-term financial congestion. Active funds, hedge funds, bulk accounts, passive ETFs are traded around the same time window. For companies like SpaceX, OpenAI, such a mechanism would transform IPO from a level-I market event into a rebalancing event for the entire technology stock market。

THAT'S WHY THE IPO TIDE IS MORE IMPORTANT TO THE MONEY RING: IT IS NOT JUST A FEW COMPANIES LISTED, BUT THE UNITED STATES STOCK MARKET IS PREPARING NEW LIQUIDITY CHANNELS FOR THESE COMPANIES。

IPO HEAT IS THE TOP SIGNAL

IF ONLY THE HISTORY OF THE UNITED STATES SHARES IS SEEN, IT IS NOT TYPICAL FOR A SINGLE LARGE IPO TO TRIGGER A SYSTEMIC LIQUIDITY CRISIS DIRECTLY。

IT'S A DIFFERENT PATTERN: IPO HEAT TENDS TO BE NEAR THE TOP OF THE RISK PREFERENCES。

Prior to 1929, there was a surge in the United States market, with a large number of new financial products and new equity issuances absorbing bulk money and pushing up bubbles with leverage, bond trading. It wasn't a single IPO that triggered the Great Depression, but the new zeal was part of the risk bias。

When stock prices fell in 1929, people gathered on the streets of Wall Street

The 1999-2000 Internet bubble was similar. A large number of unprofitable, even mature, Internet companies are on the market, and the first day of IPO boom became normal. According to Wilmer Hale ' s IPO report, the number of IPOs in the United States reached 537, raising approximately $95.3 billion in 1999; in the first quarter of 2000, Internet-related companies accounted for 60 per cent of IPOs. Then Nasdaq crashed and the IPO window closed quickly。

2021 is a more recent example. According to Renaissance Capital, a total of $142.4 billion raised by 397 IPOs in the United States in 2021 was one of the largest in recorded years; the heat is even more exaggerated if included in SOPAC. Rivian, Robinhod, Coinbase, a large number of software and consumer Internet companies are listed on the market. By 2022, however, interest rates went up, growth stocks went down, SPAC went down, and the new stock market went cold。

THE HISTORY OF THIS: IPO THERMAL TIDE THERMOMETER。

WHEN MARKETS ARE WILLING TO GIVE HIGHER AND HIGHER VALUE TO STORIES THAT ARE BECOMING MORE AND MORE DISTANT, WHEN FIRST-LEVEL MARKET ASSETS BEGIN TO RUSH TO SECONDARY MARKETS, IT IS OFTEN CLEAR THAT LIQUIDITY HAS ENTERED THE MOST RISK-TAKING PHASE. THEN, ONCE INTEREST RATES, PROFIT EXPECTATIONS OR RISK PREFERENCES ARE REVERSED, THE IPO TIDE CHANGES FROM A "GOLD MACHINE" TO A "TOP SIGNAL"。

When the bigger table opens

In both years, the biggest change in currency circles was institutionalization。

BTC ETF transforms bitcoin into an asset in the United States equity account; Circe listing transforms stable currency into an asset in the stock market; Coinbase, Robinwood, mining, MicroStrategy wraps crypto beta into a beta. Now, SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic are going to pull the future technology narrative back to the US。

This means that the circles are facing a different competition。

In the past, Altcoin only needed to compete with other chain assets for liquidity. Today, it competes for the same dollar-based risk budget with BTC ETF, AI stocks, space shares, stable currency shares, platform stocks, Nasraq-100 passive funds。

It is not a problem if markets are in a strong liquidity environment. American stock rise, BTC rise, Altcoin rise. However, if the liquidity margin shrinks, the funds select the deepest, most compliant and most easily exited assets。

THAT'S WHY THIS YEAR'S U.S. STOCK IPO HEAT IS IMPORTANT FOR THE MONEY RING。

It will not simply create a “liquidity crisis”, but it may further change the internal financial structure of the currency circle: BTC and ETH are more like macro-assets, stabilization is more like cash management tools, trading platforms and stabilization currency companies become American equity assets, while Longtail Altcoin is increasingly dependent on short-term emotions and local narratives。

IN THE COMING MONTHS, THE IMPACT OF THE IPO TIDE ON THE CURRENCY CIRCLE SHOULD NOT BE JUDGED SOLELY BY THE DECLINE IN THE TOTAL MARKET VALUE OF THE STABLE CURRENCY, BUT BY SEVERAL MORE SENSITIVE INDICATORS:

Whether the spot trade will recover; whether derivatives will remain high; whether the BTC dominance continues to suppress Altcoin; whether the first week of succession after the new currency is put on the market continues to weaken; and whether the market has a real buyout when high FDV projects are unlocked。

IF THESE INDICATORS CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE, THEN THE IMPACT OF THE LARGE SHARES OF THE UNITED STATES IPO ON THE MONEY RING IS NOT A ONE-TIME PUMPING, BUT A FURTHER REDUCTION IN THE LENGTH OF MARKET FUNDS。

THE REAL QUESTION FOR THE MONEY CHAIN IS NOT "WILL THESE IPOS TAKE AWAY ALL THE STABLE COINS," BUT: WHEN THE US STOCK PROVIDES A MORE DOMINANT, HIGHLY VOLATILE NARRATIVE, CAN LONG-CHAINED ASSETS RETAIN MONEY WILLING TO PAY FOR LONG-TERM STORIES。

If the answer is no, this year's IPO boom may not be a liquidity crisis for the US stock, but a protracted crisis for the Altcoin market。