Prognose the market to be in controversy: Are you trading facts, or rules

Original Odaily Daily@OdailyChinaI'm not sure

Author Asher@Asher 0210I'm not sure

The forecast market is now the hottest course we're talking about。

The forecasted trade around macro events, the encryption industry and even entertainment topics continues to rise, discussing the rising heat and the number of participants. However, while the market is growing rapidly, there is also a growing disharmony -Some events diverge from the expectations of users based on common sense or “realistic understanding” at the time of settlement, leading to disputes about rule design, fairness and even the credibility of the platform。

In the recent past, two high-profile events have been projected in the market. Here, Odaily Daily will comb and explore them。

Polymarket: US pilots who rescued the US in Iran were convicted of US invasion of Iran

On 3 April, an American military F-15E Strike Eagle fighter was shot down by Iranian air defence systems in south-western Iran. Two crew members on board (a pilot/pilot, a weapons system officer/WSO) jumped, one was quickly rescued and the other disappeared for several days, hiding in the Iranian mountains。

• THE UNITED STATES FORCES SUBSEQUENTLY LAUNCHED SEARCH AND RESCUE (SAR) OPERATIONS INVOLVING ARMED AIRCRAFT, HELICOPTERS, ETC., WHICH RESULTED IN THE RESCUE OF THE SECOND SERIOUSLY WOUNDED CREW (TRUMP HIMSELF ANNOUNCED “WE GOT HIM”)。
• The rescue operation involved U.S. troops entering Iranian territoryThis raises concerns in the context of current sensitive geo-conflict situations。

Since the entry of United States troops into Iranian territory is also, to some extent, a United States invasion of Iran, it has a direct impact on the projected invasion of Iran by United States forces on the Polymarket platformWhat's wrong?I'm not sure

According to the settlement rules, the entry of active United States military personnel (including special combat units) into Iranian land territory by a specified date is counted as an invasionThe downed pilot was not included in the invasion, but special forces from the United States forces did enter Iranian territory to rescue the pilot。Therefore, the entry of special forces into Iran to rescue the pilots met the criteria for the United States invasion of Iran that were determined to be yes。

Polymarket has been judged to be an invasion of Iran by United States forces, which has given rise to strong community controversy。

In support of the “entry count” (Yes side), it was argued that the operation was consistent with the definition of “entry” in the rules。the united states special forces have entered iranian territory on their own initiative, and the rules expressly state that “special operation forces will be limited” and also cover “for international processes (including humanitarians)”. from the objective facts, this was the first confirmed ground infiltration by united states forces in the context of the current conflict, and united states personnel did indeed embark on iranian land and should therefore be considered “entry”。

Opposed to count entry (no side), the definition was considered to be excessively extended. The operation was essentially a short-term, limited-scale humanitarian rescue, which was neither a combat invasion nor an occupation, and was not in keeping with the public’s common understanding of “U.S. forces entering Iran”. At the same time, the rule expressly excludes “pilots who are shot down... will not qualify”, whereas the operation is conducted around the downed pilot and is of a “forced entry” character, which logically falls under a similar exception. Referring to previous cases (e.g. similar area operations are not considered invasions), rescue actions should not be equated with military access; if judged to be yes, they may encourage a marginal interpretation of the rules and weaken the seriousness and consistency of the market. The Chinese community is also generally of the view that “entry into Iran” should refer more to large-scale ground or amphibious combat than to short-term “suspension or departure”。

Predict.fun: Polymarket issued a stable currency and was sentenced to a currency

6 April, evening, Polymarket OFFICIALLY ANNOUNCED ON XFull exchange upgrade to:

• Rebuilding trading engines and upgrading smart contracts
• Launch of the new primary collateral token Polymark USD (1:1 anchor USDC to replace USDC.e to reduce bridge risk)I don't know。

The second point, referring to the introduction of the original collateral token & nbsp; Polymark USD, has a direct impact on the probability of two related projected events on the Predict.fun platform, the first being the issuing currency; and the second is the market value of the post-release currency:

1. When will Polymarket issue its currencyWill Polymarket launch a token by ?I'm not sure

2. FDV() one day after the opening of the PolymarkPolymark FDV above?）；

If you look at the settlement rules document, make it clear."As long as any homogenized token issued by Polymark is counted as the "distribution" of the event, the stability coin is no exceptionI don't know. Thus the Polymarket stability currency meets the criteria for the determination of yes。

Notes relating to settlement rules

This has been debated by the community。

According to the proponent, literally speaking“promulgation of tokens” is not limited to the requirement of a “governance token” but a generic reference to all tokens。In this context, Polymarket USD, as an ERC20/SPL equivalent token issued by Polymarket, is in essence consistent with the definition of “distributive currency”. In addition, the official follow-up added that it was more a reaffirmation of the original rules than an ad hoc revision of the rules, and therefore justified compliance。

The challenger, however, did not accept this interpretation. On the one hand, they consider that the inclusion of a stable currency in the category of “distribution currency” is an overreading rule and a typical word game; on the other hand, it is not possible to use the term “stable currency” as a word gameEven if it were recognized that a stable currency is a “distribution currency”, the market forecast is centred on “Polymark FDV” rather than “Polymark USD FDV”。Stabilized coins are more of a collateral (collar) or a clearing tool whose market value structure is fundamentally different from that of the main project currency (e.g. POLY governance token) and should therefore not directly equate or replace the overall project valuation logic。

Who are you standing for

Taken together, predicting the controversial events in the market is a central issue: whether you are in detention “real” or “rules”. In many cases, the two do not overlap completely。

For us involved in predicting markets, understanding the rules themselves may be more important than judging the course of events. The details of how the source is defined, whether there are exceptions or whether there is room for interpretation are directly determined at critical times。

It is also for this reason that some of the high-probability events appear to be “the Bureau of Finance”, which is not necessarily risk-free, but may be a potential “deficit”。A lot of reverses happen in these neglected details. It is more useful to look at the rules than to complain after losing money。