Original title: " Gold is back $4,800, where is the top of the year? "

Original by Wenser, Odaily Daily Planet

After almost six weeks of sudden blows from the US-Iraq conflict, with news of the US-Iraq ceasefire agreement, gold finally returned to the top of $4,800 a month。

From the gold token XAUm, which was mentioned as early as October 2024, until last September when the gold spot of $3500 rose to over $39,000, to January this year when the gold token XAUT, which was about $4,500, began my own trip to focus on gold。

On the other hand, at the macro level, and against the backdrop of the intensification of geo-conflicts, central banks around the world continue to grow in gold, and the Central Bank of China has been buying large amounts of gold for 17 months; major investment institutions and banks are also confident that gold prices will rise。

With this in mind, the Daily Planet will address a question from recent industry developments and changes in the political and economic situation:Gold ceiling geometry for the year

Gold price trends over the last six months

Prognosis of gold rises and drops in the market: before June, prices were below $4,200 and highest or above $600,000 in the year

After forecasting the emergence of markets, thanks to multiple factors such as real money and silver bets and "group wisdom", it has become an important wind point for predicting asset prices. For the time being, the price range for Polymarket in the gold year is about $3800-$6,000。

Polymarket forecasted gold prices in the previous year are currently over $3.5 million, of which:

The highest probability of less than $4,200, 40 per cent

(b) 28 per cent of the probability above $5,500

The second is above $5,700 (17%) and below $3,800 (13%)。

Polymarket's gold price forecast for the previous year, which is currently just under $200,000, includes:

The highest probability above $600 is 46 per cent

- 25 per cent of the probability above $700

The probability above $8000 is again 16%。

In other wordsAlthough the volume of transactions is relatively small, market users are projected to set prices at nearly $600,000 above the 20 per cent margin during the year。

It is worth noting that the rules governing the events related to the price of gold on Polymarket apply the active monthly official settlement price of the CME gold (GC) futures contract, which is excluded from day-to-day transactions, the maximum price, the lowest price, the purchase, the sale, the intermediate price or the indicative price。

Macro buyout: Central banks are growing, Turkish central banks are trading money for money

As the largest global class of assets with the highest market value, the first buyer of gold is, naturally, the central banker of the French coin。

At the beginning of April, the World Gold Association issued the February Central Bank monthly gold purchase. It states that central banks net purchases of 19 tons of gold in February 2026, although they are still below the reported monthly average of 26 tons in 2025, up from 5 tons in January 2026。

In addition, the report shows that some central banks maintain a record of continuous net gold purchases, with cumulative purchases of 44 tons from November 2024 to February 2026, with the Czech Republic reporting net purchases for the 36th consecutive month. China held gold for the sixteenth consecutive month (data for February)。

Gold’s medium-term outlook remains strong, with gold prices expected to climb to $5,400 per ounce by the end of the year. At the end of March, the Bank projected that the target price for gold at the beginning of 2027 would be $5900 per ounce。

This month, on 7 July, the Central Bank of China issued a communiqué that China ' s Gold Reserve at the end of March was 7,438 million ounces (approximately 2313.48 tons), an increase of 160,000 ounces (approximately 4.98 tons) in ring-to-ring ratio, and 7,422 million ounces (approximately 2308.5 tons) at the end of February, an increase in gold for the seventeenth consecutive month。

On the other hand, the old gold-storage countries have sat on fishing stations, almost unchanged — such as the United States (approximately 8100 tons), Germany (approximately 3300 tons), Italy (approximately 2400 tons) and France (approximately 2400 tons)。

With regard to the pressure on the monetary system in the Middle East resulting from the US-Iraq conflict, “Turkish central bank has been selling more than 120 tons of gold for almost three weeks, valued at $20 billion,” many people know nothing. In fact, most of this gold has not gone to the market, but rather to the gold-currency futures. In general, the Bank of Turkey has simply used its gold reserves in exchange for United States dollars in exchange for foreign exchange, thereby stabilizing the exchange rate of the country ' s French-lira。

In structural terms, the share of central bank gold reserves in total reserves in emerging markets is still 10 per cent low, and China is only in single digitsThis means that the global central bank is far from saturated, and that the strategic need for "de-dollarization" will provide a firm purchase for gold for yearsI don't know。

Encryption Buyer: Stabilizing Currency Big, Tether. Gold reserves are at the top of the world

In February, the Wall Street Investment Bank, Jefferies, published a report that a stable currency distributor, Tether, continued to increase its gold holdings, which, as of 31 January, had grown to about 148 tons, valued at approximately $23 billion at current prices, and held more than a multinational sovereign country and ranked among the top 30 global gold holdings。

According to the report, Tether held an additional 26 tons of gold in the fourth quarter of 2025 and continued to hold an additional 6 tons in January of this year, after a few national central banks like Poland and Brazil. Its gold reserves are currently larger than those of Australia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, the Republic of Korea and Greece。

According to the Agency, the above-mentioned gold is mainly used to support the United States dollar-stabilized currency, USDT, and the gold anchored currency, XAUT (currently the FDV market value is over $3.3 billion). Because Tether is a non-listed company, its disclosure data may be minimal, with actual gold holdings or higher than published values. Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino previously indicated that the company planned to allocate about 10 per cent to 15 per cent of its portfolio to in-kind gold。

Battery buys a plate: a high-season trap determines the holding hold

In 2026, there was a marked increase in the level of bulk participation in gold investments, especially in Asia, where funds became the new dominant market for gold。

IN JANUARY, ASIAN GOLD ETF FLOWS REACHED $10 BILLION A MONTH。

IN ADDITION, CHINESE INVESTORS PURCHASED 432 TONS OF GOLD BARS THROUGHOUT 2025, A RECORD HIGH. THE SITUATION IN FRONT OF THE COUNTRY'S GOLD STORE, WHERE THERE WAS A QUEUE TO BUY THE MONEY, AND THE BANKS' APP SAVINGS WERE SOLD OUT MORE FREQUENTLY, REFLECTING THE STRONG ACCEPTANCE OF THE GOLD PRESERVATION FUNCTION BY ORDINARY INVESTORS。

However, on the contrary, the price of gold has increased in both directions. In January, news of Kevin Walsh’s nomination to the Fed’s presidency led to a sharp drop of 9 per cent per day, the largest single-day fall in nearly 40 years; in March, the price of gold fell to a peak of $4,200 per ounce, with a large number of dispersed households in high places, in combination with the Central Bank of China’s massive build-up, creating a stark contrast between “spread-out of panic and low sovereign funding.”。

This is whyA large number of high-profile bulk purchases made it possible not to sell too much gold during the year。

Institutional perspective: Gold will remain high, at the end of June, or around $5,200

At the institutional level, there has been a proliferation of views since this year by the Swiss Bank, which has shown considerable interest in the precious metals market。

According to news from January 21, Joni Teves, a Swiss silver metal strategist, stated that the demand for diversification was a central driver of the current round of gold prices, and institutional investors, retail investors and central banks were raising gold to address macroeconomic uncertainties。

It is expected that the price of the gold will remain aggressive in the first half of the year and that if the market's concerns about the Fed's independence continue to rise, the price of the gold is expected to hit $5,000 per ounce in the first half of the year. For its part, the silver bank has benefited from rising gold prices and narrowing its supply and demand gap, or challenging $100 per ounce this year。

Subsequently, gold and silver rose to close to $5,600 per ounce, and gold to $120 per ounce。

On 24 February, according to the Swiss Bank Group, gold prices are expected to reach $6,200 per ounce in the coming months, as the key factors driving its strong rise over the past year remain。

Subsequently, on 28 February, the conflict between the United States and the United States officially broke out and Israel and the United States joined forces in an attack on Iran, and regional fighting broke out。

On 5 March, in a report by a Swiss Group analyst, it was noted that data dating back to 1900 had shown that economic risks had proved to be more significant for financial markets than geopolitical risks. They stated that, in most cases, investors would perform best if they could “see” geopolitical noise。

At the end of March, the Bank projected a target price of $5,900 per ounce for gold at the beginning of 2027。

On 2 April, a Swiss silver strategist, Joni Teves, predicted that, despite recent fluctuations in gold prices, the price of gold would rise to a new high this year and be seen as a buy-in opportunity in the near future. The average price of gold is projected to be $5,000 per ounce in 2026, $4,800 in 2027 and $4250 in 2028。

On 7 April, the Bank reduced the gold price at the end of June to $5,200 per ounce, owing to a slowdown in investor demand at a time of increased market volatility。

In addition, early in February, Morgan Chase openly and firmly looked at the amount of gold, arguing that the gold target at the end of the year was $6,300 and that 34 per cent of the increase remained。

Understanding the essence of gold: avoidance assets and the heart of the monetary system

Finally, let's talk for a minuteThe Nature of Gold InvestmentI don't know。

In 1971, the United States broke up its own Bretton Woods system. The price of gold then soared from 35 dollars per ounce to nearly $5,000 per ounce today, with a cumulative increase of 94 times over the past 55 years, which, in terms of a four-to-five-year investment cycle, has accumulated through a cycle of at least 10 wheels。

After the Russian-Uu conflict in 2022, the economic process of "de-dollarization" accelerated dramatically, and the global central bank launched a new round of gold reserve competition, which has led to the creation of a gold "super" in almost three years。

In 2026, America’s political and economic situation was not so bad at short notice as the US dollar’s monetary credit system began to deteriorate, despite news and policies such as AI, technology, and the return of indigenous industries。

In January this year, Morgan Stanley, a leading investment bank, stated that the role of the United States dollar in the global system was being steadily and gradually weakened, but that gold had become the biggest challenge to the dollar in an increasingly multipolar world, as credible alternative currencies remained limited。

According to Morgan Stanley, the international impact of the United States dollar has declined on several indicators, including its share in central banks ' foreign exchange reserves, and its share in corporate and emerging market sovereign issuances。

Nevertheless, the dollar still accounts for the largest share of global reservesThis shows that there are no real challengersI don't know. However, once gold is taken into account, the situation changes. The share of gold in central bank holdings has increased from about 14 per cent to 25-28 per cent, and this upward trend is "no sign of slowing down." Risk premiums and hedges will continue to put pressure on the United States dollar while supporting demand for gold。

Despite the fact that in the Dubai turmoil caused by the US-Iraq conflict, gold is being called into question as a “privileged asset attribute” because of its inconvenientness, it remains the only hard currency in the international community, beyond the dollar。

THE FACT THAT IRAN’S BLOCKADE OF THE STRAITS OF HORMUZ IS FOLLOWED BY THE USE OF THE RENMINBI, THE BTC, AND OTHER ENCRYPTED CURRENCY TO CHARGE PASSAGE FEES HAS TO SOME EXTENT EXPOSED THE FACT THAT THE DOLLAR’S CREDIBILITY IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC SYSTEM HAS FALLEN。

Thus, although Mike McGlone, a senior market analyst of the Bloomberg think tank, warned in his April metal market outlook report that gold and silver were at the top, the "one once a generation" height might have passed. But gold is still at a relatively low point in the year, in terms of the political attitude of Tremple, which is now winning at both ends of the mouse。

Combining the above multi-dimensional analysis, the core logic of the three-part structure of the Golden Year 2026, which may be summed up as "one quarter of peaking, two quarters of shallow turnaround, three quarters of bottom recovery", is still upwards, but fluctuations will be significantly higher than in previous years。

THE CURRENT PRICE POSITION OF $4,800 PER OUNCE, GOLD OR IN THE RESTORATIVE REBOUND PHASE, AND $4900 ARE CRITICAL AREAS OF IMMEDIATE RESISTANCE. PROGRESS IN US-IRAQ CEASEFIRE NEGOTIATIONS, US CPI DATA AND FED POLICY SIGNALS WILL BE THE MOST CRITICAL PRICE CATALYST IN THE SHORT TERM. IF THE CEASEFIRE AGREEMENT CONTINUES AND OIL PRICES CONTINUE TO FALL, AND INTEREST RATES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE FURTHER, THE PRICE OF GOLD IS EXPECTED TO CHALLENGE THE $5,200 THRESHOLD BY THE END OF THE SECOND QUARTER。

IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE YEAR, AS INFLATIONARY PRESSURES IN THE UNITED STATES EASED WITH THE FALL IN OIL PRICES, THE FED’S INTEREST-RATE WINDOW WAS REOPENED, AND THE WEAKENING OF THE DOLLAR WOULD PROVIDE GREATER UPWARD SPACE FOR GOLD. IN ADDITION, THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE MID-TERM ELECTIONS WILL PROVIDE SOME POLITICAL IMPETUS FOR THE RISE OF ASSETS SUCH AS GOLD AND BTC。

In terms of price ceilings, combined agency forecasts and market trends, the reasonable ceiling forecast for gold prices in 2026 was $5,400 to $6200 to $6,400 per ounce in optimistic circumstances。

In conclusion, the U.S. is just like the late QinIf Qin loses his deer, the males go to himI am not sure. At this point, who would be left without gold if there were large categories of assets under universal law that were secure and valuable

Original Link