Bitget UEX talks on the outstanding oil price rebound; Cook left CEO in September; Walsh promised strict independence in monetary policy (21/04/2000)

I. Hot spots

Federal Reserve Developments

Disclosure of the speech of the United States Federal Reserve Chairman at the nomination hearing

• Trump nominated Kevin Warsh, former Federal Reserve Board member, for early disclosure of the opening remarks of today ' s hearing, with a clear commitment to maintaining strict independence in monetary policy, and a warning that the Federal Reserve should not overexpand functional boundaries
• Warsh stressed that “inflation is an option”, that price stability is a core responsibility and that independence depends primarily on its own discipline rather than external intervention
• Market impact: If a hearing is successful, its position is expected or the interest rate reduction path is enhanced, but politicization challenges may push up long-term interest rates and short-term profit-at-risk assets add to dollar-bond fluctuations。

Major international commodities

The negotiations between the US and Iran have stalled in the Straits of Hormuz, and the oil has rebounded

• Trump denied the possibility of extending the ceasefire agreement, the Iranian representatives planned to go to Pakistan for negotiations but did not confirm their participation, the Holmuz Strait blockade continued, with at least 26 vessels breaking through and turning around, and Kuwait declared force majeure for crude oil exports
• A SINGLE INCREASE OF ALMOST 9 PER CENT IN THE WTI PIPELINE AND AN 8 PER CENT INCREASE IN BRENT CRUDE OIL EVENTUALLY RESULTED IN AN INCREASE OF ALMOST 6 PER CENT, THE LARGEST SINGLE-DAY INCREASE FOR MORE THAN TWO WEEKS
• Market interpretation: geo-risk premiums once again dominate pricing, the pressure for oil price reversals if negotiations move forward will increase, and the short-term support for energy plates will increase global inflation uncertainty。

Macroeconomic policy

IDC PREDICTS A 13% DROP IN GLOBAL SMARTPHONE DELIVERIES IN 2026

• IDC DATA SHOW THAT GLOBAL SMARTPHONE DELIVERIES ARE PROJECTED TO DECLINE BY 13 TO APPROXIMATELY 1.1 BILLION IN 2026, WITH Q1 DOWN BY 4.1 PER CENT AND THE LOW-END TYPE BEING THE MOST AFFECTED
• Three stars and apples compete with high-end product lines, but overall industrial chain demand is conservative
• The analysis pointed to weak consumer e-demand or a drag on the technology supply chain, with Li ' s emphasis on building new energy bases, long-term green technology transformation but short-term suppression of semiconductor and consumer e-valuation。

Market revisiting

large commodities & foreign exchange performance

• Cash gold(a) A 0.1 per cent increase of $4825
• Cash and silver(c) Recovery of most of the lost land after a drop of nearly 4 per cent, as reported in the amount of $79.8
• WTI CRUDE OIL• 1.12 per cent down to $86.43
• Brent crude oil(b) A decrease of 0.61 per cent and an amount of $94.9
• United States dollar index: Report 98.08, failed to rebound, failed to escape a one-and-a-half-month low, and risk-averse feelings were suppressed together with expected interest rate reductions。

Encryption Currency Performance

• BTC: 24H BY 2.19 PER CENT, REPORTING $75,958, STRONG REBOUNDS AFTER CRITICAL SUPPORT HAS BEEN SECURED FOR MANY DAYS, DISPLAYING ANTI-FALL PROPERTIES AT GEO-RISK
• ETH: 24H UP 1.63 PER CENT, REPORTING $2,320, WHICH IS BETTER SYNCHRONIZED WITH BITCOIN, AND ETF FUNDING DYNAMICS PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT
• Total market value of encrypted currency: 24H INCREASED BY ABOUT 1.5 PER CENT, WITH A TOTAL MARKET VALUE OF ABOUT $263 TRILLION AND BTC MAINTAINING ITS DOMINANT POSITION AT 57.6 PER CENT
• Market warehouse situation: 24H TOTALLING APPROXIMATELY $281 MILLION AND ABOUT $196 MILLION
• Bitget BTC/USDT liquidation map: 76k-78k above is closed, prices are close to the trigger area, and if broken, they can trigger successive crowding up. most of the downsides are largely clear and unobserved, short-line drops are not clearing-driven and structures are still numerous。

• NET INCOMING/OUTWARD SPOT ETF: BTC SPOT ETF NET OUTFLOWS OF APPROXIMATELY $17.6 MILLION YESTERDAY; ETH SPOT ETF NET OUTFLOWS OF ABOUT $21.5 MILLION YESTERDAY
• BTC SPOT INFLOW/EXIT: yesterday, some $2.45 billion went in, about $2,295 million out and $155 million in net inflows。

United States equity index performance

• Finger49,442.56 points, down by 0.01 per cent, with a small return to high places
• Pistol 500(a) 7,109.14 points were reported, down by 0.24 per cent, and the momentum of successive increases was suspended but remained near historical heights
• Nut finger: 24,404.39 POINTS WERE REPORTED, DOWN BY 0.26 PER CENT, ENDING 13 DAYS OF RECORD-KEEPING, AND TECHNOLOGY AND THE AI PLATE WERE UNDER STRESS。

Technology giant dynamics

• APPLE (AAPL)• A SLIGHT DECLINE OF 0.4 PER CENT, AS A RESULT OF THE EXCHANGE OF NEWS FROM CEOS, TO $225.8, WITH MARKET INTEREST IN THE SMOOTHNESS OF THE TRANSITION
• MICROSOFT (MSFT)(a) Decline of 0.3 per cent, reporting $412.5, and robust cloud operations, adjusted for large volumes
• GOOGLE (GOGL)(B) A DROP OF 0.8 PER CENT, A REPORT OF $155.2 AND LIMITED INFORMATION ON AI CHIP COOPERATION
• AMAZON (AMZN)• 0.5 PER CENT INCREASE, $185.6, AND THE RESILIENCE OF THE ELECTRICIAN AND AWS WAS HIGHLIGHTED
• Meta (META)Decline of 1.1 per cent to $520.4 and strong advertising but high valuation pressure
• YVDA (NVDA)(A) A 0.6 PER CENT DROP AND A $138.2 REPORT, WITH THE CONTINUED DEMAND FOR AI BUT THE OVERALL BENEFIT OF THE PLATE CLOSED
• TESLA (TSLA)Declined by 1.2 per cent, reporting $248.7 and noted the progress of automatic driving。Summary of core causes: GEO-UNCERTAINTY HAS LED TO THE CONCLUSION OF HIGH-LEVEL PROFITABILITY, THE AI THEME REMAINS THE MAIN DRIVING FORCE AND THE TOP-LEVEL CHANGES IN APPLES HAVE BECOME THE FOCUS OF THE MARKET。

Plank Instant Observation

Energy and Fertilizer BlocksOver 3%

• REPRESENTING UNITS: DOW CHEMICAL (DOW) INCREASED BY OVER 3 PER CENT
• Drivers: The Strait of Hormuz has been strained to raise oil prices and energy and chemical panels have benefited directly。

Aviation and cruise board blocksOver 3%

• REPRESENTING UNITS: NORWEGIAN CRUISE SHIP (NCLH) DROPPED BY NEARLY 3.5 PER CENT AND AMERICAN AVIATION (AAL) BY OVER 4 PER CENT
• Drivers: Geo-blocking affects shipping expectations and increases the pressure on profits。

Semiconductor plateSplit

• Representing units: Marvell Technology increased by nearly 6 per cent (GoogleAi Cooperative Anecdotal); AVGO fell by almost 2 per cent
• DRIVER: AI CO-OPERATIVE NEWS BOOSTS SOME UNITS, BUT THE WHOLE PLATE RETURNS WITH THE NAVIGATOR。

III. Depth interpretation

APPLES (AAPL) - CEOS

Summary of eventsApple officially announced on 20 April that Tim Cook would resign from the CEO on 1 September 2026 and be transferred to the Executive Chairman, with John Ternus, Senior Vice President of Hardware Engineering, taking over the CEO and joining the Board. The largest change in leadership since 2011 stems from the company ' s long-term succession planning, with Ternus leading hardware engineering since 2013, deeply involved in the development of M-series chips, Mac product lines and AI hardware, and the market closely following the strategy of AI equipment during the transition period (such as the landing of Apple Intelligence) and ecological continuity。Market interpretationWall Street institutions generally view this as a smooth and orderly interface, with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley stressing that the hardware background of Ternus will accelerate the integration of AI hardware with ecology, maintain “buy-in” ratings and slightly increase target prices, and that this would ease investors' concerns about the slowdown in post-Cook innovation, but that the supply chain and the new rhythm will need to be observed in the short term。Investment revelation: A SMOOTH HIGH-LEVEL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO STABILIZE MARKET CONFIDENCE AND ENHANCE THE FACILITATION OF AI HARDWARE, SUGGESTING THAT INVESTORS FOCUS AROUND SEPTEMBER ON FINANCIAL DISCLOSURE AND NEW PRODUCT LAUNCHES TO CAPTURE POTENTIAL VALUATION REVALUATION OPPORTUNITIES, WITH ATTENTION TO HARDWARE SUPPLY CHAIN LINKAGES。

2. Amazon (AMZN) - Anthropic AI additional investment

Summary of eventsThe Amazon announced a further $5 billion investment in Anthropic and continued to deepen the generation of AI infrastructure, not only reinforcing its leading position in cloud computing but also directly driving the growth expectations of AWS operations. Anthropic, as the developer of Claude ' s model, has expanded its collaboration with Amazon from initial investment to large-scale computing and cloud-based services, accelerating the digitalization of enterprises at superseding geo-risk, highlighting the strong position of Amazon in the AI capital expenditure track。Market interpretation: WALL STREET ANALYST HIGHLY ENDORSES THE LONG-TERM DRIVING ROLE OF THE AI THEME, WITH GOLDMAN SACHS AND MORGAN STANLEY MAINTAINING “BUY-IN” RATINGS AND INCREASING TARGET PRICES, ARGUING THAT AWS DEMAND RESILIENCE WILL OFFSET SHORT-TERM MACRO-PRESSURES, THAT ACCELERATED CAPITAL SPENDING IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE INTO SUSTAINABLE PROFIT GROWTH, AND THAT ROOM FOR VALUATION EXPANSION REMAINS。Investment revelation: THE ACCELERATION OF AI CAPITAL EXPENDITURE WILL PROVIDE A STRONG GROWTH ENGINE FOR THE AMAZON, SUITABLE TO FOCUS ON TRACKING AWS PERFORMANCE IN THE FISCAL SEASON, AND THE UNIT WILL BE EQUIPPED TO EFFECTIVELY CAPTURE MEDIUM- AND LONG-TERM OPPORTUNITIES DRIVEN BY DOUBLE-WHEEL DRIVE BETWEEN CLOUD COMPUTING AND AI INFRASTRUCTURE。

EXXONMOBIL (XOM) - DIRECT GAINS FROM THE REBOUND IN OIL PRICES

Summary of events: The Strait of Hormuz blockade continues to push up international oil prices by nearly 6 per cent, ExxonMobil, one of the largest global energy giants, whose crude oil production, refining and upstream operations have benefited directly from geo-pricing premiums, Kuwait's declaration of force majeure has further exacerbated supply chain tensions, and recent corporate performance guidance has implied energy price elasticity。Market interpretation: INSTITUTIONS SUCH AS THE SWISS BANK HAVE RAISED THE OVERALL RATING OF THE ENERGY PLATE TO EMPHASIZE THE DIRECT SUPPORT OF THE GEO-RISK PREMIUM FOR PROFITS, THE XOM VALUATION HAS ACQUIRED SIGNIFICANT DEFENSIVE PROPERTIES, AND THE ATTRACTIVENESS OF CASH FLOWS AND DIVIDENDS HAS INCREASED FURTHER IN A HIGH OIL PRICE ENVIRONMENT, SUBJECT TO THE RISK OF A REVERSAL OF NEGOTIATIONS。Investment revelationSHORT-TERM OIL PRICE FLUCTUATIONS PROVIDE A SIGNIFICANT TRADE ELASTICITY FOR ENERGY GIANTS, MEDIUM- AND LONG-TERM INVESTORS NEED TO KEEP TRACK OF GLOBAL ENERGY TRANSFORMATION POLICIES AND OPEC+ DYNAMICS, AND XOM IS SUITED AS A DEFENSIVE CONFIGURATION BUFFER AGAINST GEO-INFLATION UNCERTAINTY。

GOOGLE (GOOGL) - GOOGLE NEW TPU AI

Summary of eventsGoogle talks with Marvell Technology about anecdotal collaboration with the AI chip, and the accelerated deployment of a new generation of TPU chips is expected to further consolidate its leading position in the AI algorithm. This is a continuation of Google Cloud and AI infrastructure strategies that directly respond to the GPU market pattern, led by British Wyda, and in the context of the global decline in smartphone exports, corporate-level AI demand has become a new growth point。Market interpretation: ANALYSTS BELIEVE THAT STRONG AI INFRASTRUCTURE NEEDS WILL BOOST CLOUD OPERATIONS AND ADVERTISING REVENUES, AND MORGAN STANLEY MAINTAINS AN OPTIMISTIC RATING, NOTING THAT TPU COLLABORATION CAN REDUCE RELIANCE ON EXTERNAL CHIPS AND OPTIMIZE COST STRUCTURES, HIGHLIGHTING THE RESILIENCE OF THE TECHNOLOGICAL GIANT SUPPLY CHAIN IN A GEO-RISK ENVIRONMENT。Investment revelation: AI THEME CATALYSES CONTINUOUS FERMENTATION, RECOMMENDS ATTENTION TO PLATE WHEELING OPPORTUNITIES BROUGHT ABOUT BY CHIP SUPPLY CHAIN CONNECTIONS, AND GOOGL AS THE CORE PLAYER FOR AI COMPUTING, IS SUITABLE FOR CAPTURING THE SYNERGISTIC GROWTH DIVIDEND OF CLOUD SERVICES AND HARDWARE IN MEDIUM- AND LONG-TERM LAYOUTS。

IV. Developments in encryption money projects

1 MORGAN STANLEY, IN CASH, BOUGHT 215 BTCS WORTH $1.643 MILLION FOUR HOURS AGO AT BITCOIN ETF MSBT. IT CURRENTLY HOLDS 1820.6 BTCS VALUED AT $138.1 MILLION。

Bloomberg reports that the projected market industry is intensifying its lobbying efforts in Washington to respond to growing regulatory pressures. Companies such as Kalshi are hiring lobbying teams to respond to possible attacks by Congress on the industry. In the first quarter of 2026, the industry lobbied for at least $1.84 million, a record high of over 60 per cent growth over the same period。

According to Russell Thompson, Chief Investment Officer of the encrypted asset management company Hilbert Group, global liquidity is expected to tighten by 20 to 25 per cent, putting short-term pressure on Bitcoin. Even if the Iranian issue were resolved quickly, it would be difficult for risk assets to continue to rebound without external policy support。

4. The Block reported that in the last three weeks, multiple DeFi security incidents have resulted in industry losses of over $600 million, of which Kelp DAO leaks ($292 million) have further exacerbated the downward trend, bringing DeFi TVL to about $82.4 billion, the lowest level in a year。

According to Bitcoin Magazine, the stocket of Bitcoin has officially exceeded that of Beled. The data show that Strategy currently holds 815,061 BTCs, while BlackRock holds 802,823 BTCs。

V. Today ' s market calendar

Data release schedules

The big news

Institutional perspective:

The Goldman Sachs trading manager warned that the United States share leverage rate was five years high, that CTA buys out energy, that the geo-risk overlaps, and that the risk of short-term reversals was emerging; and that the hedge fund CIO Eric Peters considered that there was still room for “intergenerational blowback” at present, with a bid of 500 or a further 35-40 per cent increase, driven by AI infrastructure, foreign capital inflows and energy exports, and that gold and United States debt were allocated zero risk in advance to offset subsequent interest rates. According to Morgan Chase and others, the stalemate in the negotiations between the United States and Iraq, while pushing up oil prices and energy units, has not changed the trend towards upscaling the core profits of the United States stock, with the target of 500 2026 remaining optimistic. Overall, short-term fluctuations have increased, but the “AI+ drop” logic remains dominant in the medium to long term, suggesting that investors focus on the rotational opportunities of defense plates and high-quality growth poles in the context of controlling warehousing positions。

DISCLAIMER: THE ABOVE IS COLLATED BY AI, MANUALLY ISSUED ONLY FOR VALIDATION AND IS NOT RECOMMENDED FOR INVESTMENT。