U NDA WROTE: AI'S END OF UNEMPLOYMENT IS A LIE, BUT INSTEAD IT CREATES JOBS

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Original language: Deep tide TechFlow

Editor:In a recent post, U Nda responded positively to the story of "AI leading to mass unemployment". His core argument was that software engineering was the industry most affected by AI, but recruitment demand remained strong and that unemployment in the United States remained at 4.3 per cent healthy. AI Laboratories, SaaS and retrenchment enterprises each have the motivation to exaggerate AI ' s alternative capacity. The value of this article is that it comes from a person who both promotes AI development and has a long-term interest in AI education。

(Note: U Nda is a world-renowned AI scientist, educator and entrepreneur, part-time professor at Stanford University. He co-founded the Google Brain team and served as the leading scientist for 100 degrees, and was a key player in promoting in-depth learning about large-scale applications. It also created Coursera and DeepLearning.AI, which have made an outstanding contribution to the development of AI globallyHere is the original text:

THERE WON'T BE AN AI END OF UNEMPLOYMENT。

THE STORY "AI WILL LEAD TO MASSIVE UNEMPLOYMENT" IS CREATING UNNECESSARY PANIC. AI, LIKE ANY TECHNOLOGY, CAN AFFECT EMPLOYMENT, BUT IT IS NEITHER RESPONSIBLE NOR HARMFUL TO BLOW THE NARRATIVE OF “LARGE-SCALE UNEMPLOYMENT”. TIME TO STOP。

I HAVE EXPRESSED MY DOUBTS ABOUT "AI THE END OF UNEMPLOYMENT" IN EARLIER ARTICLES. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE MAINSTREAM MEDIA HAVE NOW BEGUN TO COUNTER THIS NARRATIVE. THIS CHART BELOW COLLECTS SOME RECENT REPORT TITLES。

Software engineering is the area most affected by the AI tool, coding anent in the front. However, recruitment needs for software engineers remain strong. While it is true that there are AI replacements, the trend clearly shows that AI ' s net creation of jobs is much larger than its elimination, as is the case with each previous technological wave. Moreover, despite the encouraging progress made by AI, unemployment in the United States remained at 4.3 per cent healthy。

WHO'S ADVOCATING "AI THE END OF UNEMPLOYMENT"

WHY IS THERE SUCH A MARKET FOR THE "AI END OF UNEMPLOYMENT" NARRATIVE

FIRST OF ALL, THE FRONT-LINE AI LAB HAS A STRONG INCENTIVE TO TELL STORIES THAT MAKE AI SOUND POWERFUL. THE MOST EXTREME VERSION IS THE SCENE OF SCIENCE FICTION THAT TOOK OVER THE WORLD AND LED TO THE EXTINCTION OF HUMANITY. THE LOGIC IS SIMPLE: IF A TECHNOLOGY CAN REPLACE A LARGE NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES, IT MUST BE VERY VALUABLE。

Second, many SaaS companies price between $100 and $1,000 per user per year. But if an AI company could replace an employee with an annual salary of $100,000, or make him 50% more efficient, it would seem reasonable to charge $10,000 a year. The anchorage went from SaaS prices to employee salaries, and AI could charge much higher prices。

IN ADDITION, THE ENTERPRISE ITSELF HAS THE INCENTIVE TO DESCRIBE REDUNDANCY AS AI. AFTER ALL, "WE'VE IMPROVED EFFICIENCY WITH AI, SO WE'VE STREAMLINED PEOPLE" IS MUCH BETTER THAN "WE'VE RECRUITED TOO MANY PEOPLE WHEN WE HAVE CHEAP CAPITAL DURING THE EPIDEMIC." THE REAL CAUSE OF THE LATTER WAS OVER-RECRUITMENT DUE TO LOW INTEREST RATES AND LARGE-SCALE GOVERNMENT FISCAL STIMULUS。

This is not the end of unemployment

I ADMIT AI IS CHANGING A LOT OF PEOPLE'S WORK. IT'S HARD, IT'S WORRYING. I UNDERSTAND EVERYONE AFFECTED. BUT CHANGES IN JOB CONTENT AND PREDICTIONS OF JOB MARKET COLLAPSE ARE COMPLETELY DIFFERENT。

Society has the capacity to tell itself a story for many years, even if it does not have a realistic basis on which to make bad collective decisions. The fear of nuclear power safety, for example, led to a serious underinvestment in nuclear power; the fear of “population bombs” in the 1960s led to harsh population control policies in many countries; and concerns about diet fat caused the government to promote decades of high sugar and unhealthy diets。

THE MAINSTREAM MEDIA ARE NOW OPENLY QUESTIONING THE "AI END OF UNEMPLOYMENT" NARRATIVE, AND I HOPE THAT SUCH STORIES WILL GRADUALLY LOSE INFLUENCE, AS WILL THE PANIC THAT "AI LED TO THE EXTINCTION OF HUMAN BEINGS."。

It's not the end of unemployment. It's a job party

MY PREDICTION IS THE OPPOSITE: THERE'S GONNA BE AN AI JOB PARTY. AI WILL CREATE A LOT OF GOOD AI ENGINEERING JOBS, AND I'M OPTIMISTIC ABOUT THE FUTURE OF THE WHOLE JOB MARKET. AI ENGINEERS DO DIFFERENT THINGS THAN TRADITIONAL SOFTWARE ENGINEERING, AND MANY NEW JOBS WILL OCCUR IN ENTERPRISES OTHER THAN THE TRADITIONAL LARGE TECHNOLOGY EMPLOYERS。

THE SKILLS REQUIRED FOR NON-AI POSITIONS ARE ALSO CHANGED BY AI. NOW IS THE TIME TO ENCOURAGE MORE PEOPLE TO LEARN AI AND PREPARE FOR THE DIFFERENT BUT ABUNDANT TASKS AHEAD。

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