Bitwise: Bitcoin is going through its IPO moment, and it's even falling or "a present."
Original by Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer, BitwiseOriginalCOMPILATION: FINANCE
BITCOIN'S CHART SHOWS THAT ITS IPO MOMENT HAS ARRIVED. THAT'S WHY THE BTC CONFIGURATION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASEI don't know。
Jordi Visser is one of my favorite macro thinkers, and I read every article of his。
His latest articleBITCOIN'S SILENT IPOA CENTRAL ISSUE WAS EXPLORED: DESPITE GOOD NEWS — STRONG ETF INFLOWS, BREAKTHROUGHS IN REGULATION, GROWING INSTITUTIONAL DEMAND, ETC. —Why is Bitcoin still frustratingly caught up in crossroads and crashing down the dealI don't know。
This is the best analysis I have read of the current situation in the Bitcoin market in the past six months and strongly recommends that you read it。
Visser says:BITCOIN IS GOING THROUGH A SILENT IPOFROM A CRAZY IDEA TO A MAINSTREAM SUCCESS STORY. HE POINTED OUT THAT WHEN STOCKS WERE NORMALLY COMPLETED, THEY TENDED TO BE ORGANIZED OVER A PERIOD OF 6 TO 18 MONTHS BEFORE THE RISE WOULD BE TRIGGERED。
In the case of Facebook, it was listed on 12 May 2012 at a price of $38 per share, after which stock prices continued to roll over and even fall for more than a year, until the IPO issuance price of $38 was re-established 15 months later. Google and other high-profile technology start-ups show similar trends。
Visser says:The convulsion doesn't necessarily mean there's a problem with the object itselfI don't know。This is often due to the departure of the founders and early employees — those who are betting when the risks of starting a company are extremely high — who now reap a hundred times the rewards and naturally want to reap the benefits. The process of internal sales and institutional takeover will take time, and stock prices will be back on the rise only once such transfer of ownership is balanced。
According to Visser, this is very similar to today ' s bitcoin。THOSE OF THE EARLY FAITHS WHO BOUGHT BITCOIN AT A PRICE OF US$ 1, US$ 10, US$ 100, OR EVEN US$ 1,000, HAVE NOW EMBRACED THE WEALTH OF THE TIMES. WITH BITCOIN IN THE MAINSTREAM – THE ETF-LISTED DEAL IN NEW YORK, THE ESTABLISHMENT OF A BITCOIN RESERVE BY LARGE FIRMS, AND THE ARRIVAL OF SOVEREIGN WEALTH FUNDS – THESE INVESTORS ARE NOW FINALLY ON TRACK TO PAY OFF。
Salute them! Their patience has been greatly rewarded. Five years ago, the market might have been disrupted by the sale of $1 billion worth of bitcoin; however, today, a diversified group of buyers and a sufficient volume of transactions have been able to absorb such large transactions more smoothly。
It is important to note that chain data show that sellers are more complex, so Visser's analysis is only part of the current market drivers, but this is an essential part of what makes us think about future markets。
Here are two central points I have drawn from this article:
View One: Extremely promising
Many encrypted money investors are frustrated when they read the Visser article: "In the early days, OGs were selling bitcoin to institutions." Do they know something we don't know?"
This interpretation is so wrong。
The early sale of an asset by an investor does not mean that the journey towards the end of an asset is only beginning a new phase。
Looking at the example of Facebook: It is true that its stock price, which remained below $38 in the year after IPO, has risen to $637, an increase of 1576 per cent. Back in 2012, I would not hesitate to buy all Facebook shares at $38。
Of course, investments in the Facebook A round of financing may result in higher returns, but at the same time also entail much greater risks。
The same is true of bitcoin today. In the future, it may be difficult for us to see a hundred times the return of bitcoin in a year, but once this “mix-wielding phase” has been completed, the scope for it to rise is still enormous. As noted by Bitwise in the Bitcoin Long-Term Capital Market Scenario report, we believe that Bitcoin will reach $1.3 million per item by 2035, a projection that I personally believe remains conservative。
I would also like to add that there is a key difference between bitcoin after the early sale of the OGs and the company after IPO — the company still needs to grow after IPO. Facebook was unable to rise overnight from $38 to $637 because its revenues and profits were not sufficient to support such an assessment, and it needed to expand revenue, new lines of operation, mobile operations, etc., with risks。
But not bitcoin。ONCE OG FINISHED SELLING EARLY, BITCOIN DIDN'T HAVE TO DO ANYTHING。It had to increase from $2.5 trillion to $25 trillion at the gold level, and what was needed was broad acceptance。
I'm not saying it's gonna happen overnight, but it's probably faster than Facebook。
From a long-term perspectiveBitcoin's cross-boarding is a “gift” — an excellent opportunity to buy more chips before it restarts the boom。
View two: the 1% of bitcoin configuration is over
As Visser stated in his article, the risk of completing IPO companies is much lower than in the initial phase. Their shareholdings are more widely distributed, subject to stricter regulations and more opportunities for diversification of their operations. Investment in IPO Facebook is much less risky than funding a university dropout who works at the Palo Alto party house。
The same is true of Bitcoin。With the shift of Bitcoin from its early appliance to institutional investors and its gradual maturity as a technology, it no longer faces the risk of survival as it did a decade ago, with a significant increase in maturity as an asset class。THIS IS CLEAR FROM THE RATE OF MOVEMENT OF BITCOIN, WHICH HAS DECLINED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE JANUARY 2024, WHEN THE BITCOIN ETF BEGAN TRADING。
Bitcoinhistorical Volatility
Source: Bitwise Asset Management, data range from 1 January 2013 to 30 September 2025
This brings an important message to investors:In the future, bitcoin returns may be slightly lower than in the past, but volatility will decline significantly。As asset distributors, in the face of this change, my response is not to sell — after all, we predict that bitcoin will continue to be one of the largest asset classes in global performance in the next decade — but to increase。
In other words, lower volatility means that more such assets would be safer to hold。
Visser's article reinforced me by a trend in which Bitwise met hundreds of consultants, institutions and other professional investors over the past few months and found that:THE 1 PER CENT ALLOCATION OF BITCOIN IS COMPLETELY PAST. AN INCREASING NUMBER OF INVESTORS NEED TO USE 5 PER CENT AS THE STARTING POINT FOR THE BTC CONFIGURATION。
BITCOIN IS GOING THROUGH ITS IPO MOMENT。If there is a history to follow, it is up to us to embrace this new phase with increased strength。