Arthur Hayes' latest podcast: got next year's script, got 90% shot

From:Kyle Crystal Hunt

Compile Odaily Daily Planet@OdailyChina); Translator Azuma()@azuma_ethI'm not sure

The editor posts the following: The biggest forecaster, the industry's black legend, and the co-founder of BitMEX, Arthur Hayes, came out again to predict market developments. In today's update of Kyle Crypto Hunt podcasts, Arthur Hayes offers his own answers on topics such as macro-mobility changes, back-market orientation, personal space and operation。

The full text of the Arthur Hayes podcast discussion, compiled by the Odaily Daily Planet, is set out below and is subject to some reduction due to the brevity of reading。

Opening remarks

EVERYONE IS EXPECTING THE FED TO SAY THE SPELL, AS IF IT WERE SAYING, AND THE POSITION IN YOUR ACCOUNT WOULD TAKE OFF IN PLACE - "QUANTIFIED EASE." BUT IF YOU'RE STILL WAITING FOR A DIRECT ANNOUNCEMENT FROM THE FED AND BEFORE, IT'S LIKE WATCHING A FOREIGN-LANGUAGE MOVIE WITHOUT SUBTITLES。

Today's guest is Arthur Hayes. He was co-founder of the encryption money exchange BitMEX. Before entering the area of encrypted currency, he had conducted transactions in Citigroup and Deutsche Bank, which were well-versed in macro-analysis. This time you better look at the magnifier and take notes, because he says, "You don't even have the headline you're looking for."

Part 1: Recent developments — Japan Central Bank interest rate hike

• Moderator (Kyle Chasse): Arthur, nice to have you on the show. Before we officially began, the most recent macro event now was the resolution of the Central Bank of Japan (BOJ). By the time the audience sees the show, the resolution should have been published (Odaily Note: 25 basis points have been confirmed). Do you think that's gonna happen? If so, what does it mean for the market

Arthur Hayes: Yes, after his speech a few weeks ago, Odaily Note: the President of the Central Bank of Japan, he had largely made clear that the interest rate hike was “within the scope of the discussion”, and then the market's probability of the increase rose rapidly。

as far as i can tell from some of the people more familiar with the bank of japan, between & nbsp; 155 and 160, the dollar is the "red line" of the bank of japan, so they will take the necessary measures -- either to increase interest rates or to acquiesce in some form of foreign exchange intervention -- to prevent the yen from falling further and breaking 160。

I think this increase is probably just from   0.5% to 0.25%. Against the background of official inflation of about 3 per cent, this has little substance at the macro level. It may lead to a short-term tightening of markets, but it will not change the trend in substance。

Part 2: World Focus - Federal Reserve Succession

• Moderator (Kyle Chasse): Who's the most important concern now? They all tend to lower interest rates, but the path is completely different. Do you think Kevin Walsh's taking over would pose a certain threat to the environment of risk assets

Arthur Hayes: I'm always saying one thing - & nbsp;The President of the United States will eventually get the monetary policy he wants。

If you look back at the history of the Federal Reserve since its inception in 1913, the game between the President and the Chairman of the Federal Reserve has never been new. This struggle has always been public, violent, even ugly, when Linden Johnson attacked William Martin, then Chairman of the Federal Reserve, on his own farm in Texas to force him to lower his interest rates... So now people think that Trump's mean attitude towards Powell is nothing。

the point is not what he believed in before he became president, but when he sat in that position, he understood --   he came to work for trump。Trump wants lower interest rates, larger money supplies, hotter markets, while at the same time officially denying that these are inflation-related, otherwise he and the Republicans will be out of the game in the next general election。

So whoever is in the Chair, the outcome is the same. Depending on the situation, they will produce any necessary tools to fulfil their mandate。It doesn't matter who's in that seat. I don't care。

Part 3: Lifeline of the stock market - Is the AI foam sustainable

• Moderator (Kyle Chasse): What do you think of the game between inflation and liquidity? If we begin to “print money” on a large scale, as Kevin Hassett expected, the liquidity environment will obviously be very profitable, but usually the more print-outs, the higher inflation, and the pressure on the ordinary family will remain。

Arthur Hayes: In my opinion, the Fed and Treasury's “rules of the game” are really simple — & nbsp;The United States economy is essentially a highly financial economy, and the stock market is the United States economy itself。

So eventually, the authorities have to do whatever it takes to ensure that the stock market risesIT ALSO MEANS THAT THE WAVE OF AI MUST LAST。I KNOW SOMEONE'S STARTED QUESTIONING THE AI BUBBLE AND SAYING THERE'S BEEN A CALLBACK, BUT I THINK THEY'RE TOTALLY LOOKING THE WRONG WAY。If you are a stock investor, you should do more and accept a certain degree of volatility, and it is too hasty to go ahead and do a company like Airfinger, Airfinger, because the bubble is far from breaking and the authorities need it to continue。

TRUMP HAS BET THE ENTIRE US ECONOMY ON AI SUCCESS. FOR AI TO SUCCEED, HOWEVER, THE ONLY WAY TO SUCCEED IS TO BE MORE DEBT-DRIVEN, LESS FINANCIAL AND MORE MONETARY. HE'LL DO IT UNTIL HE CAN'T DO IT。

The problem is that it brings inflation。How can politicians properly say to voters, “These policies do not lead to inflation”? The answer is a name change。EVERYONE KNOWS THAT QUANTITATIVE EASING (QE) = PRINT MONEY = INFLATION. SO THE TERM QE CAN NO LONGER BE USED, AND NEVER AGAIN, BECAUSE ORDINARY PEOPLE ON THE STREET KNOW THAT IT MEANS INFLATION, AND PEOPLE HATE INFLATION, WHICH COULD LEAD THEM TO TURN TO THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY IN THE NEXT ELECTION。

Part 4: QE New Load

• The moderator (Kyle Chasse): You were right about the policy of quantitative easing. Looking back, you'll see it's still loose, but it looked different. What's your name this time

Arthur Hayes:This time, the new name is “Reserve Management Purchases, RRP”。

WHEN THE WORD FIRST APPEARED, I SPENT A LOT OF MONEY ASKING RESEARCHERS IN THE MACROECONOMIC FIELD. I ASKED THEM, "IS THIS A QE?" MOST TECHNOCRATS SAID, "NO, NOT REALLY QE." I ASKED A COUPLE OF BOND TRADERS, AND THEY SAID IT WASN'T QE, IT WAS SOMETHING ELSE. BUT WHEN YOU ASK SOME MORE CYNICAL MACROANALYSTS LIKE ME, WE SAY:

Technically not, but essentially -- it'll do the same。

It's not QE, but I don't think the market really understands what it is. Looking back in 2008 - 2009, when Ben Shalom Bernanke launched the American version of QE, the market began to be totally unconvinced. The index continues to decline until March 2009。

AT THAT TIME, BERNANKE HAD BEEN EMPHASIZING THAT IT WAS A “TEMPORARY SCALE-UP” THAT WOULD EVENTUALLY BE RECOVERED IN THE FUTURE. BUT THEN QE WENT ROUND AND ROUND, AND IT DIDN'T REALLY END IN 2021, AND IT WAS THEN THAT THE MARKET PEAKED AND RETWEETED. SO THE POINT IS, THE MARKET DIDN'T BELIEVE IN QE AT FIRST, THAT IT WAS PRINTING MONEY, AND IT DIDN'T REALIZE UNTIL LATER, "OH, THAT'S PRINTING MONEY, COME ON!"

Today's RMP is going through the same process. The Fed buys short-term treasury bills (T-bil), not MBS or 10-year-old national debt. In a long-term perspective, T-bill has a much smaller impact, and if you assume that the banking system is the main channel affected by the scheme, then RMP is not QE, but it is not. The Fed did so to induce the Monetary Market Fund to provide more loans in the repurchase market (Repo Markets), which could directly fund the United States Treasury Department。So it is a way for the Fed to use money market funds and buy-back markets directly as a medium to finance the US Treasury at the short end of the sovereign curve。

OVER TIME, PEOPLE WILL SEE THE DEFICIT FALLING, THE CIRCULATION OF SHORT-TERM TREASURY BILLS RISING AND THE USE OF THE BUY-BACK MARKET GROWING. AND THEN THE ASSET PRICE WILL BOUNCE BACK AND THE MARKET WILL REALIZE, "THIS IS ACTUALLY QE."

Part 5: When is the market going down

• Moderator (Kyle Chasse): What is the timeline for the market to realize this? What time did you mention that the asset price might be at the bottom of that period

Arthur Hayes:I think that, starting next January, price performance will improve significantly; but around March the market will start to worry about whether this “temporary project” will end, and then there will be a wave of turmoil; then they will confirm that   RRP will continue, and then recommence。

Part 6: Personal Operations for Arthur Hayes

• How will you operate now? How do you manage it personally? Is it risky or risky

Arthur Hayes:We've probably got 90% of the bullets left to deal with fluctuations. Maelstrom (Odaily Note: Arthur's Family Investment Office) does not use leverage, so it's not afraid of a bitcoin short cut of $80,000。

What we're more concerned about now is what's the next dominant narrativeLeaving aside bitcoin, this round of our most successful silos is   Ethena (ENA) we entered very early because we were financing consultants for the project。

THE NEXT ROUND I THINK WILL BE PRIVACY, ZK RELATED DIRECTION。We now have a lot of Zcash (ZEC) openings, but I think there will be a real outbreak of related projects in this area that could be the best in the next two to three years. I think 2026 is the time to find that project, and we don't know what it is yet, but our job as investors is to find opportunities。

Part 7: Values and risks of privacy narratives

• The moderator (Kyle Chasse): Honestly, it's really annoying to expose all transactions to the chain so everyone can see them, right

Arthur Hayes: What people don't really understand is that there is a lot of people who don't know what they're talking aboutThey see just what I want them to see. If I want you to see, you can see; if I don't want you to see, you can never see。

SO, WHEN YOU SEE THOSE WALLET TRACKING TOOLS ON X OR OTHER SOCIAL PLATFORMS, YOU HAVE RESERVATIONS ABOUT WHAT YOU SEE. THAT DOESN'T NECESSARILY HAPPEN。

But in my opinion, for Zcash and other ZK projectsThe core value of privacy narratives is -- if I really need to make sure that there's no government, no company, no one to monitor what I'm doing, do I really have such tools nowClearly, there is a fear hidden behind this, and all you have to do is use it. Even after three years, it turns out that the hottest money in 2026 is a piece of shit, and that doesn't matter, and you could still make a lot of money until then。

• The host (Kyle Chasse): Do you think it's possible - & nbsp; of course I know it can't be completely shut down or banned - But if the government really tried to tell them that it was illegal to use this stuff, it would scare a lot of people away, right

Arthur Hayes: I think the government has become much smarter in this information age. If you tell people that you can't do something, but you don't have the full means to actually enforce the ban, people will not only continue to do it, but will want to do it even more。

As a result, instead of a positive ban, the Government has chosen to restrict brokering services, for example, by restricting access to exchange currency。When I was actually brainwashed by Zcash, I first picked up my cell phone and then contacted & nbsp, which I knew; 8 brokers, who were able to give me a few million-dollar transaction price, and only & nbsp; 2 were willing to offer, and & nbsp; 6 were banned by regulatory agencies。

Most exchanges are now not allowed to trade Zcash or other private currency at all. This is the way the government prevents you from holding it. They will not prohibit it directly, but will make it extremely difficult for you to get it。

Part 8: What if we predict a rollover

• Moderator (Kyle Chasse): Based on your previous explanation, your overall judgment in 2026 is many. So is there any key indicators, graphs or events that could reverse your judgment and make you very blind in 2026-2027

Arthur Hayes: Some might say that bitcoin is going back from 125,000 to 80000, but it's only the beginning, how much can it fall behind, and I say, “Arthur, you've been saying you want to print money, but bitcoin is still falling, and the market obviously doesn't believe in what you say.”

And my answer is, "You're right."

I'm talking about a future state. I'm saying that the market is now digesting a new term for “print money”, at least in the United States。But the perception changes, and that's the risk I take in this judgment, the market validates the answer, and if I'm wrong, it's wrong, but I'm on this。We'll witness the results together。

Part 9: Will the season come again

• The host (Kyle Chasse): Will we see another season in the next year or two

Arthur Hayes: I think you have a very selective memory of the “season season”, which is filled with many assumptions like “could have”, “know” or “if it had been”。

You said you wanted the beach season? So you think about 2016-2017, when it was basically a guy who posted a fucking PDF online, and sent you an address to make money. Did you? Most people don't. But a lot of people do it and make a lot of money. Think again of the nbsp; the NFT wave of 2020-2021, where everyone trades some ugly apes and penguins on the block chain, but you've been educated since you were a young European master, like Rembrandt and Picasso. Were you crazy about NFT? A lot of people don't either。

So don't tell me about the season. In 2017 you dare not take risks, in 2020 you dare not, in 2024-2025 Hyperliquid you still dare not。The season is always there, but you're too shy to be part of it。What you want is a familiar season, because it's the only way you feel you know what to do, but the cycle will only be refreshed and the rise will always be newEither you adjust the cognitive framework, or you live in the past forever and complain that the mountain season doesn't exist, but it's just because you didn't buy the one that went up。

Part 10: Arthur Hayes' big shot

• The host (Kyle Chasse): Is there anything you're excited about, but not yet publicly? It's not about blue chords, it's about something higher on the risk curve。

Arthur Hayes: I might write an article about this in New Year's. Maelstrom has a bunch of investment professionals, and I myself have a direct trade account, and I do what I want。

I've reset this year's deal, but if you look at the statistics, you'll find that only about one fifth of it is profitable, and most of it I've lost money. I threw a lot of money on some of the worst shit or meme coins, but I shouldn't have touched it at all, and I just felt "fun" at the time, but that's not my style, and I shouldn't have been in that shit。

I've made the most money in Hyperliquid and Ethena, just to catch those fluctuations, so that we have enough capital to bet on them。

ONE OF THE DEALS I LIKE IS THE ENA -- YOU CAN LOOK AT THE CHAIN RECORDS THAT I ALLOWED YOU TO SEE。I THINK THE ENA IS IN THE EARLY STAGES OF A HUGE RISEBecause it's an interest rate game. As the Fed lowers short-end interest rates, if the RMP narrative is correct, then bitcoin will rise, and people will want to leverage it, and they will be willing to pay for a higher margin, and Ethena is the tool to capture it on the chain. Now we're seeing USDE going through massive redemptions, but I think this trend will reverseJUST LIKE IN SEPTEMBER 2024, WE'LL SEE THE ENA RISES VERY FAST. OF THE BLUE COINS WE HOLD, THIS IS PROBABLY ONE OF THE MOST CONFIDENT DEALS I HAVE, AND IT IS IN LINE WITH MY MACRO-CURRENCY ARGUMENT AS A WHOLE。

Part 11: Some quick answers

• Moderator (Kyle Chasse): Let's get to the quick answers. By the end of 2026, will bitcoin be higher, lower or even? About what price

Arthur Hayes:   higher. I said before 2025 to $250,000, obviously it's not gonna happen。I'll repeat the same goal, 2026 to touch $250,000。

• The host (Kyle Chasse): Say a deal everyone likes but you think it's a trap。

Arthur Hayes: & nbsp; Do empty Weeda。

• Moderator (Kyle Chasse): What is the most dangerous macro narrative in the area of encrypted currency?  

Arthur Hayes: & nbsp; central banks will tighten monetary policy。

• Moderator (Kyle Chasse):   What's the best sign of mobility return

Arthur Hayes: This has to dig into central bank balance sheets and banking systems。The signal will never be straight because they want to lie to you。

• Moderator (Kyle Chasse): What is your location for ETH

Arthur Hayes: King of Settlements。

• Moderator (Kyle Chasse): What are the most undervalued risks in the market

Arthur Hayes: Leverage。

• Moderator (Kyle Chasse): What do you want to ban from the collective sentiment of the encrypted market, if you can 

Arthur Hayes: & nbsp; another day I feel that the market is manipulating prices against you。

• Moderator (Kyle Chasse): If anyone wants to see the wallets that you “don't want them to see”, what do they do?  

Arthur Hayes: & nbsp; On imagination, my friend.