BIT RESEARCH: FIVE MAJOR SIGNALS AT THE SAME TIME, BITCOIN BEAR CITY OR IS IT OVER
THE MARKET IS AT A CRITICAL TURNING POINT. A NUMBER OF INDEPENDENT TECHNICAL INDICATORS ARE GRADUALLY POINTING TO THE SAME JUDGEMENT: THE TOWN OF BITCOIN BEAR, WHICH BEGAN IN OCTOBER 2025, MAY BE NEARING COMPLETION OR EVEN OVER. UNLIKE THE 2022 ROUND OF BEAR MARKETS, WHICH WAS LONG AND REPEATEDLY EXPLORED, THE MARKET STRUCTURE HAS CHANGED MARKEDLY DURING THE CURRENT CYCLE. THE INTRODUCTION OF SPOT BITCOIN ETF AND THE GRADUAL REDUCTION OF REGULATORY UNCERTAINTY HAVE RESULTED IN A LACK OF A “PASSIVE OVERKILL” ENVIRONMENT IN THE DOWN-PRICE PROCESS. AT THE SAME TIME, FROM HISTORICAL EXPERIENCE, BITCOIN RARELY ENTERS THE UNILATERAL BOOM WITHOUT HAVING EXPERIENCED A SHOCK, AND IS MORE LIKELY TO BE IN THE “BASKET PHASE AFTER CONFIRMATION”。
Against this background, the reference for a single indicator is limited, but when multiple signals begin to appear simultaneously, the conclusions to which they are directed are becoming clearer: the market is moving downwards from trends to the point identification phase。
Technical signal concentration: from bottom morphology to trend repair
In terms of technology structure, the most central change in the current market is the signal resonance. First, the weekly random indicator has returned to the top of 20, a pattern that usually follows the worst stages of the market, with more corresponding bottom formations in history, rather than declines continuing. At the same time, new trend signals have re-emerged and triggered again after two previous failures, raising their reference value significantly。
Second, bitcoin prices are gradually approaching the 21-week mean line (approximately US$ 77,592), a level that has long been seen as an important reference line for distinguishing the cycle between bulls and bears. The current price is shaking around $75,000, and re-entry into the zone is more likely to be a time problem. Once breached and stabilized, it will constitute a clear trend recognition signal。
IN ADDITION, THE MOON LINE RSI HAS THE POTENTIAL TO RETURN TO ABOVE THE MEAN LINE. HISTORICALLY, THIS SIGNAL HAS MOSTLY BEEN FOUND NEAR THE BOTTOM OF THE BEAR MARKET. IF THE CURRENT ROUND RE-EMERGES, IT WILL FURTHER STRENGTHEN THE JUDGEMENT THAT THE MARKET HAS COMPLETED ITS BOTTOM CONSTRUCTION. OVERALL, THESE INDICATORS ARE OF LIMITED SIGNIFICANCE WHEN THEY APPEAR INDIVIDUALLY, BUT WHEN THEY ARE CONCENTRATED WITHIN THE SAME WINDOW AT THE SAME TIME, THE MARKET SITUATION HAS SHIFTED FROM “CONTINUING DOWNWARD TRENDS” TO “BUILDING DOWN”。
Key price ranges confirmed: from shock repair to upper preparation
In addition to technical indicators, prices themselves remain the core validation variable. The market is currently testing the critical area of $66,000-73,000. The height of approximately $73,084 in March 2024 has formed the top structure in the medium term. If prices can effectively break through and stabilize the zone, this will mean that the previous downward trend has been substantially reversed。
Structurally, there is a certain similarity between the current course of action and that of a year ago: the market quickly recedes under external shocks, then enters a narrow shock, which eventually leads to an upward breakthrough. The price has now begun to move up to the test zone, and if this pace continues, the amount of $88,000 or even higher is not radical in the short term. At the same time, $64,972 below has become an important anchor for the current phase. As long as prices remain above that level, the overall trend will gradually shift from neutral to more. Thus, rather than judging whether markets “have entered the cattle market”, the crucial question is whether prices can complete an inter-zone breakthrough and thus confirm the trend transition。
AT PRESENT, FIVE SIGNALS HAVE BEEN POINTED IN THE SAME DIRECTION: THE RANDOM INCREASE IN WEEKLY INDICATORS, THE RE-EMERGENCE OF TREND SIGNALS, PRICES APPROACHING THE 21-WEEK MEAN LINE, THE POSSIBLE CONFIRMATION OF THE MONTHLY LINE RSI, AND THE EFFECTIVE BREAKTHROUGH OF PREVIOUS DOWNWARD TRENDS. THE FOLLOWING FINDINGS REMAIN INSUFFICIENT FOR A SINGLE SIGNAL, BUT THE CREDIBILITY OF THE CONCLUSIONS TO WHICH IT IS DIRECTED INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY WHEN THEY CONVERGE AT THE SAME STAGE. TAKEN TOGETHER, THE BEAR MARKET, WHICH BEGAN IN OCTOBER 2025, IS PROBABLY NEARING ITS END。
For the market, the focus is also shifting: the question is no longer whether Bitcoin will continue to be repaired, but how the speed and space will move up when the trend is truly cut. In this process, breakthroughs between price zones and changes in the liquidity environment will become the central observation variable for the next phase。
Part of the above is from BIT on Target,Contact usGet the full BIT on Target report。
