Encryption Concepts Daily Watch: Saylor claims to sell BTC to pay dividends as "the big no-incident" and Strategy's financial wheel model is being scrutinized
Saylor, what did he say? Why did the market fall and bounce
Michael Saylor said at a telephone conference in Q1 on May 5th: "We may sell some bitcoin to pay dividends, just to get the market vaccinated and send the information that we already did." This expression, with its long-held "no sell" stance, turned 180 degrees, and on that day, after the MSTR dropped by over 4%, bitcoin fell by $81,000. Saylor then gave the full story in a CoinDesk interview on May 11th: If the company covers the entire year ' s dividends obligation entirely through the sale of bitcoin, the amount involved is approximately $3 million (based on current market value estimates) and the market liquidity of $200-$50 billion per day is "unmeasurable" in relation to bitcoin; at the same time, each BTC sold by the company is about 20 additional items to be purchased in tandem with STRC priority distribution through ATM financing, thus having a net effect close to "buying 20 units and not selling any holding stock". This interpretation is mathematically impeccable, but it reveals a deeper structural problem: Strategy's flyer was able to operate on the premise that the MSTR stock price was sufficiently high compared to the BTC warehouse premium (mNAV) to allow ATM financing to issue shares at prices significantly higher than the BTC net asset value。
Critical point of the ship: mNAV compression and $75,537 cost line
Strategy currently holds 818,334 BTCs (as of 3 May), with a total acquisition cost of approximately $61.8 billion at an average price of $75,537; annual preferential dividends obligations of approximately $1.5 billion (STRK pays 8 per cent of dividends and STRC pays about 10-11.5 per cent); and the company has an interest reserve coverage period of about 18 months and a reserve fund of approximately $2.2 billion. The bottom line of the strategy is that if bitcoin deals for less than $8,000 a long time, the company will be in real financial trouble – CEO Phong Le made it clear at the press conference. The key risk was not that bitcoin fell to $8,000, but that bitcoin had long-term crosses near the $75,537 cost line, resulting in a constant compression of the mNAV premium. Analyst warns that if the MSTR modified net asset premium is further reduced from the current level to 1.0 x, ATM financing will lose its diluting advantage, and the current speed of operation will not be maintained by the wheel logic of "one buy into 20" per sale. According to recent data, bitcoin has fallen from $82,500 to $74,305 over the past two weeks, falling short of the cost line, and Strategy stock prices have been significantly under pressure over the same period — the clearest real-time demonstration of the ship's vulnerability。
Trump Media's "Faceside Case": When there's no ship
During the same week, Trump Media & Technology Group (NASDAQ: $DJT) moved 2,650 BTCs to Crystal.com, in stark contrast to Strategy 's wheel logic. DJT purchased 11,542 BTCs at an average cost of $118,522 (total cost approximately $1.37 billion) and the current average price was 35 per cent above the cost discount; the company did not have a Strategy-type ATM financing wheel, which could not amortize the cost through ongoing financing - its only capital source was $2.3 billion in one-time fund-raising and reversible debt in 2025, which was largely exhausted at the time of purchase. This means that DJT ' s Bitcoin reserve strategy is essentially a one-time bet and lacks Strategy ' s capital replenishment mechanism to deal with warehouse losses. The essence of the two models is that Strategy is a "swing-in-the-roller buy driven by continuous financing" and that DJT is a "one-time bet waiting to bounce back" — the former is self-enhanced in the cattle market, and the latter in the bear market is slowing down but breaking apart; the latter is highly ostensible in the cattle market and faces limited response space in the bear market。
THIS WEEK, PCE DATA IS THE KEY VARIABLE FOR REBOOTING THE SHIP
Bitcoin fell from $82,500 to $74,305 within two weeks, and then rebounded to the vicinity of $77,000, revealing the market environment in which Strategy was currently operating: not crashing, but not accelerating. The core macro variable for this week is the Fed's inflation preference indicator - the PCE data (published on Thursday): if the PCE falls short of expectations, the Fed’s interest rate reduction is expected to provide a macro-liquidity windfall for Bitcoin and the encryption concept unit; if the rate of return on US debt is higher than expected, it will further suppress the financing capacity of mNAV premiums and MSTRs. Meanwhile, the timetable for CLARTY Act to receive 60 votes in the Senate is approaching – if the bill completes the full Senate vote within June, it will provide a final legal endorsement of Strategy’s well-established BTC commodity attributes, superseding the PCE macro-wind, and will be the strongest double-catalyst combination of accelerated Startegy。
Data source:https://bbx.com/THE ENCRYPTION CONCEPTS INFORMATION BASE IS BASED ON YESTERDAY'S GLOBAL LISTED CORPORATE BULLETIN AND THE SEC/TSE DISCLOSURE DOCUMENT。
