WU SAYS MACRO-INDICATORS AND ANALYSES THIS WEEK: US REAL GDP, CORE PCE IN THE THIRD QUARTER
Compiled by Gary Ma Wu on the block chain
Summary
Wu says macro-indicators and analyses this week: last week in the United States, in November, the unemployment rate was 4.6 per cent higher than expected, the unseasonal core of CPI 2.6 per cent lower than expected, while the Central Bank of Japan increased interest rates by 25 bps; the global market entered Christmas patterns this week, focusing on real US GDP in the third quarter and core PCE。
Last week
focus events & indicators for the week
23 December
24 December
Summary
Wu says macro-indicators and analyses this week: last week in the United States, in November, the unemployment rate was 4.6 per cent higher than expected, the unseasonal core of CPI 2.6 per cent lower than expected, while the Central Bank of Japan increased interest rates by 25 bps; the global market entered Christmas patterns this week, focusing on real US GDP in the third quarter and core PCE。
Last week
- The unemployment rate in the United States in November was 4.6 per cent, a new high of 4.4 per cent since September 2021. In the United States, after a seasonal adjustment in November, the non-farm employed population was 64,000, with an estimated 50,000。
- By the beginning of the week of 13 December, the United States had requested 224,000 people for unemployment benefits, an estimated 225,000 people, with the previous value revised from 236,000 to 237,000。
- THE U.S. DID NOT SHIFT THE CORE CPI QUARTERLY IN NOVEMBER AT AN ANNUAL RATE OF 2.6%, EXPECTED TO BE 3%. IN THE UNITED STATES, THE ANNUAL RATE OF CPI WAS NOT REVISED QUARTERLY IN NOVEMBER AT 2.7 PER CENT, WITH AN EXPECTED 3.1 PER CENT。
- The Bank of Japan raised the benchmark interest rate to its highest level in 30 years. The Governor of the Central Bank of Japan, Shigeda and Man, stated that the Bank ' s Policy Committee had unanimously decided to increase the interest rate by 0.25 percentage points to 0.75 per cent on the grounds that its economic outlook was becoming more likely to be realized. Shortly after the announcement, the Japanese yen weakened against the United States dollar, trading near 156 yen, indicating that the market had fully absorbed the effects of the interest rate hike。
- Central Bank interest rate decision 3.75 per cent, expected 3.75 per cent, front value 4.00 per cent, December 18th. In line with market expectations, the Bank had previously suspended the quarterly rate reduction since August 2024。
- The Eurozone until December 18, the ECB deposit mechanism rate was 2%, expected 2%, with an ex-value of 2.00%。
- The December 2025 consumer confidence index, published by the University of Michigan in the United States, ended with 52.9 per cent, a small recovery from 51.0 in November, but still a decline of 28.5 per cent. According to the report, for the fifth consecutive month, the conditions for the purchase of durable goods have weakened, but individual financial and business prospects are expected to improve; 63 per cent of respondents still expect higher unemployment in the coming year. In terms of inflation expectations, inflation is expected to fall to 4.2 per cent in one year, to a low of 11 months, and long-term inflation is expected to fall to 3.2 per cent。
focus events & indicators for the week
23 December
- U.S. REAL GDP PER ANNUM PER QUARTER START (21:30)
- US 3RD QUARTER CORE PCE ANNUALIZED QUARTERLY RATES (21:30)
24 December
- Summary of the October monetary policy meeting published by the Central Bank of Japan (07:50)
- Number of people in the United States who received unemployment benefits at the beginning of the week of December 20th (in thousands) (21:30)
- Central Bank of Canada publishes the proceedings of the monetary policy conference (02:30)
