Seven weeks with 1.3 billion in gold and SpaceX weights: the thin trap of NASA ETF

Original by Deepwater TechFlow

On May 20, SEC officials online posted S-1 book for SpaceX. The next day, one code was called NASA's fund, $175 million a day, and AUM tripled in a week. And seven weeks ago, this fund was just born。

SEVEN WEEKS LATER, IT'S ALREADY THE WORLD'S LARGEST SPACE THEME, ETF, LEAVING SEVEN YEARS OF OLD UFO BEHIND. IT RAISED MORE MONEY IN SEVEN WEEKS THAN THE UFO SEVEN YEARS COMBINED。

All the people who ran into NASA wanted to buy SpaceX. But they actually bought SpaceX, less and less。

Where's the money

NASA ETF's sign is "The only pure space ETF in the market that holds SpaceX." As at 21 May, NASA indirectly held 232,000 shares of SpaceX General Equity Equivalent, with a book value of $147.4 million, corresponding to an implicit valuation of about 1,51 trillion。

The numbers look strong. But there's one detail that ordinary investors wouldn't notice. According to ETF.com, a week ago, NASA had placed 10.3 per cent on SpaceX. A week later, it was diluted to 4.6 per cent。

Because the requisition money came too quickly, the fund manager could not afford to take SpaceX ' s share on the secondary market. Large amounts of new money were forced to buy open market space shares, which in turn diluted the holdings of SpaceX that investors would have wanted to buy。

The family stormed in to buy SpaceX, and finally it got Rocket Lab plus AST SpaceMobile with a bunch of other labels。

More subtle is the valuation mechanism. The SPV holdout is only updated when Tema makes her own deal. In other words, whatever the volatility of SpaceX ' s secondary market offer, NASA holds that part of the book。

No one cares about this in the cattle market. In the event of a break in the market, that part of SPV would be “delayed reaction” in a very weird way. Not to mention, this SPV locks six months after SpaceX official IPO. If it blows up, it's gonna run away, SPV。

ETF collects 0.87 per cent of the management fee a year, but 65 per cent of the surface actually rises from Rocket Lab and Intutive Machines, which have long gone crazy. SpaceX。

NASA's nature is now a theme fund using SpaceX as bait, with a bunch of space pallets. The taste of bait is important, but there are other fish on the plate。

Valuation inverted

What many do not know is that some of the main targets on this track have been increased by a round。

Rocket Lab increased by 357 per cent over the past 12 months; Planet Labs increased by 999 per cent; LUNR increased by 212 per cent. ARKX increased 62% over the past year, ROKT increased 75%. SpaceX just lit a dry wood already burning。

The problem is to spread the figures. Planet Labs increased by 999 per cent a year, but the company's main business was to sell satellite imagery data. Is it basically worth 10 times the stock price

Global orbits were launched 102 times in 2019 and 342 times in 2025, twice the peak of the 1967 space race. Grand View Research predicts that the size of the global space industry will grow from $46.6 billion in 2024 to $76.9 billion in 2030。

But the question is, from 46.6 billion to 76.9 billion, how does the industry correspond to the 10-fold increase in the secondary market

It's a revolving classic. The fundamentals are increasing in linear terms, and stock prices are increasing exponentially, with the difference being offset by a “discount premium”. And there's only one source of the narrative premium, SpaceX is about to be listed。

What did the real guy buy

Back to SpaceX this company itself。

In 2024, $18.87 billion was collected, while in 2023 it was $10.3 billion. In 2024, however, there was a deficit of 4.590 billion, compared to $791 million in 2023, which was directly reversed from surplus to loss。

THE VERSION OF CNN'S REPORT WAS ALMOST $5 BILLION LAST YEAR BECAUSE THE AI DEPARTMENT WAS BURNING MONEY TO BUILD A DATA CENTRE。

SpaceX revealed in the equity book that XAI had been added to SpaceX and X (former Twitter) was in it. This so-called "space IPO" is essentially a big package of all the Mask assets. The book also revealed that Mask controlled 85% of the voting rights and that no one could touch him unless he voted to fire himself。

1.75 trillion dollars SpaceX valuation, corresponding to the narrative “Space + AI + Satellite Internet + Social Media”. The larger the narrative, the weaker the price。

But secondary markets don't care. The secondary market cares that everyone's in the car and I have to go。

In a circle, the most profitable was not the spaceX diaspora shareholders, because they were not in the car, nor the ETF investors who stormed into NASA because the spaceX hold they bought was being diluted。

THE MOST PROFITABLE IS THE ETF DISTRIBUTOR. NASA'S RATE IS 0.87 PER CENT, THE THIRD HIGHEST IN THE SAME FUND. $1.3 BILLION AUM, REPRESENTING $11 MILLION IN MANAGEMENT FEE INCOME PER YEAR

The essence of issuing ETF is the same as issuing currency, and you need a story, a moment and a reasonable match. SpaceX provides all three。

WRITE BEFORE IPO

On June 12th, SpaceX is expected to hang cards in NASDAQ, code SPCX. The Consortium, led by the world's largest investment banks, raised between $40 billion and $80 billion, well above the record of Saudi Arabia and America in 2020。

IT'LL BE THE BIGGEST IPO EVER。

If all the ETF investors who bought the SpaceX story on the first day of the drive break, will find that part of the SPV position in their hands is still hanging at the “old-age price” a few months ago, and they can neither stop the damage nor quit immediately。

If the opening goes up, those who don't buy ETF will rush in, push the ETF premium further, dilute the actual weight of SpaceX in ETF further, and form a funny reverse wheel, the more people buy, the less SpaceX everyone buys。

After SpaceX, there's a bunch of industry giants in line. Each of the listed "concepts track tops" will generate new ETFs. Each new ETF sets repeats the same dilution game。

THERE'S NO NEW STORY FOR THE INDUSTRY, THERE'S A MAN WHO ASKS, "DID I REALLY BUY WHAT I THOUGHT I BOUGHT?" AFTER JUNE 12TH, THERE WILL BE ANSWERS. BUT AT THAT TIME, THE PEOPLE WHO STORMED NASA TODAY DON'T CARE ABOUT THE ANSWERS, THEY'RE EITHER COUNTING MONEY OR DEFENDING RIGHTS。