Morgan Chase: Still looking at bitcoin up to $170,000, Strategy's not selling money is critical in the near future

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Morgan Chase Analysts team (led by senior strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou) released a study on December 4th. The report notes that, while the downward pressure on Bitcoin has been exacerbated by the decline in the computing power of Bitcoin and the increase in mining costs, the immediate prospects for the movement of Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy, stock code MSTR) against bitcoin are critical。

According to analysts, the recent decline in the computing power of bitcoin and the difficulty of mining has put downward pressure on bitcoin prices. The reason for the decline can be attributed to the fact that the People ' s Bank of China has reiterated that bitcoin is mining and tradingProhibitionAs well as high-cost miners, who had to sell bitcoin, had to withdraw as a result of rising electricity prices and falling bitcoin prices, their profitability had fallen。

The cost of mining bitcoin decreased from $94,000 last month to $90,000. Despite this, the price of Bitcoin remains below the cost of the mine, leading to further pressure on sales. The analyst indicated that, assuming a electricity price of US$ 0.05 per kilowatt hour, the cost of mining by high-cost miners would increase by US$ 18 million for each US$ 0.01 per kilowatt hour increase。

whether mNAV maintains 1.0 is the key

Even so, according to Chase Morgan, miners are not the key to the next move of Bitcoin, and Strategy ' s hold-up size and stability are more decisive。

The report emphasizes that:Strategy ' s ability to maintain a ratio of its business value to its Bitcoin holdings above 1 and to avoid the sale of Bitcoin is the key driver of the recent price trends of Bitcoin。

At present, the ratio is about 1.13 and as long as it remains above 1.0, Strategy will not need to use approximately 650,000 bitcoins in its possession to pay interest or preferential dividends on reversible debt, and the company ' s cash reserve of $1.44 billion will be sufficient to cover the full range of cash obligations for the next two years, which will significantly eliminate market panic。

If the ratio remains above 1.0, and Strategy ultimately avoids the sale of bitcoin, market confidence is likely to recover quickly and the worst period of the price of bitcoin will pass. If the ratio falls by 1.0 or if a large-scale passive fund sells Strategy shares as a result of the MSCI index adjustment of 15 January 2026 results in the company having to cash bitcoin, a new vicious circle is triggered。

The risk of MSTR being removed by MSCI & ldqua; digested & rdqua;

Although the market is currently watching closely whether MSCI will remove Strategy and other digital asset management companies (DAT) from its stock index. However, Chase Morgan indicated that the downside risk from the decision was limited because it was &ldquao; it was fully absorbed by the market &rdquao。

Strategy ' s share price has fallen by about 40 per cent since the first consultation was announced by MSCI on 10 October. According to analysts, this drop indicates that the market has included in the equity price the risks excluded from MSCI, and even the risks that may have been eliminated from all major equity indices。

Last month, analysts estimated that the removal of Strategy would result in an outflow of $2.8 billion; if all other equity indices were replicated, it would result in an outflow of $8.8 billion. At that time, Michael Saylor, co-founder and executive chairman of Strategy, said: “ index classification does not define us. Our strategy is long-term, and our faith in bitcoin is firm。

Nevertheless, analysts have stated that the decision to be taken by MSCI on January 15 remains crucial to the movement of Strategy and Bitcoin。If removed, it may only bring limited downward pressure. If MSCI continues to keep Strategy in its index, Strategy and Bitcoin & ldquo; both are likely to rebound strongly & rdquo; return to the level before October 10。

Morgan Chase also noted that the cost of mining bitcoin had historically been supporting. If the price of bitcoin is long below its mining costs, miners may face greater pressure, which in turn leads to a further reduction in the cost of mining。

However, Morgan Chase maintained a long-term optimistic outlook for bitcoinIn theory, the price of bitcoin is close to $170,000, which means that, if market conditions stabilize, bitcoin may appreciate significantly over the next 6 to 12 months。

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