Over 80% of the new currency, TGE, is at the top

Original by:Solus GroupEncryption researcher

This post is part of our special coverage Global Voices 2011@LeoAndCryptoI'm not sure

Editor by: Recent AnalystAshIN A POPULAR POST PUBLISHED, IT WAS STATED THAT 84.7 PER CENT OF THE MORE THAN 100 NEW TGE COINS COUNTED IN 2025 WERE FDVS LOWER THAN FDVS WHEN TGE WAS. THE MEDIAN FDV OF THESE TOKENS FELL BY 71 PER CENT (THE MEDIAN MARKET VALUE FELL BY 67 PER CENT) COMPARED WITH THE ISSUANCE。ONLY 15% OF THE TOKENS ARE HIGHER THAN THE FDV AT TGEI DON'T KNOW. OVERALL, MOST OF THE NEW CURRENCIES ISSUED IN 2025 WERE “AT THE PEAK OF TGE PRICES”。

The data show that I found a more interesting article (from Solus Group) and started with the project token TGE, which measured the movement of 113 coins after TGE in 2025 and the connection between their financing, community activity, and exchange listing. It's been a long timeHigh levels of financing, active communities, and exchange listings, the screening criteria that you see as a broad assessment of project quality, have little impact on the movement of project coins。In the past, we used to screen projects with these conditions, but in 2025 the project was judged as “failed”. One of the data sets is thought-provoking:

THE AVERAGE INCOME OF THE PROJECT WITH A TRANSACTION PRICE BELOW THE IDO PRICE WAS $1.36 MILLION。

- AVERAGE INCOME OF $7.9 MILLION FOR PROJECTS WHOSE TRANSACTION PRICE IS HIGHER THAN THE IDO ISSUE PRICE。

But these projects are supported by windfalls, which in part indicate thatMarkets focus more on sex than on actual performance, more on stories than on data, more on promises than on the product itselfI don't know. Web3 can no longer pretend that everything is good and that robot traffic can no longer be called growth。Of course, some of the conclusions drawn here are statistically not suitable for all projects. Good projects and large-scale financing can still represent the direction of the encryption industry. The Odaily Daily Planet compiles it as follows:

Two million dollars in financing, top-winding participation, half a million community fans, listed on major exchanges, with an unprecedented first day on the line, a boom on Discord, and social media festivities everywhere。

IN AN EARLIER ARTICLE, WE REVEALED THE REAL SITUATION OF 0.66 TIMES THE ROI:By 2025, the average token actually died on the first dayWe have proved that the system is no longer effective. Now, we've analyzed 113 cases of token distribution since 2025, proving this with hard data -- and most of the founders are afraid to face them。

The results of the study are alarming: large financing is useless, large communities are irrelevant, and every variable you optimize is statistically worthless。

But there's something more distorted under the surface, and there are still many of the founders:

At present, the status of the project's revenues is an air-leave signal, and the price of a profitable project's currency transaction is lower than the price of a non-profit project's currency, a dynamic that is vital to survival. The whole industry will not survive if the punishment of the profiter continues to reward the author。

Note: In 2025, TGE ' s new project tokens were calculated at an average investment return of 0.96 from the first day of issuance, meaning that its product was in deficit from the first day of publication。

Entrepreneurs ' data trap: finance paradox, high financing does not equal currency advantage

Relevance between financing and token performance: 0.04, statistically considered zero。

Projects with a financing level of $10 million had exactly the same currency performance as projects with a funding level of $1 million. This is evidenced by the figure above - regardless of the amount of financing, the distribution of tokens within the investment return range is random。The best-performing projects were: Myshell, B2 Network, Bubblemaps, Mind Network, Particle Network, Creator.Bid (10-30 times the ATH valuation). At the same time, projects like Boundless and Analog, which finance more than $10 million, are valued more than twice as much。

The current currency performance is even worse, and the return on investment in most currencies is less than one-fold, regardless of the size of the financing。For example, those coins that finance between $5 million and $100 million are 0.1 and 0.7 times (e.g., Fleek, Pipe Network, Sahara AI), the same as those that do not have any financing。

The fact is that large-scale financing accelerates the death of the project coin。

The least funded projects (from $0.3 million to $5 million) have a higher return on each dollar of investment raised, their implementation has been faster, their costs have been shifted to lower costs, and they will not be flooded in quarterly risk investors’ currency unlocking forms, with large amounts of unlocked coins undermining project returns。

If you want $10 million for "competition," then you're preparing for failure。

Fan Myth: The big project community is just a paper tiger

The statistics are identical for 500,000 fans and 50,000 fans。

RELATED COEFFICIENTS: 0.08 (CURRENCY ATH) AND 0.06 (CURRENT STATUS OF TOKEN)

The data shows that:The size of audience fans has no predictive value for token performance, and the performance of projects with large groups of fans has been uneven — some surges, others collapses, as do projects with small audiences, no trends, no patterns and no relevance。

Your Discord group is not a community, but a speculative audience waiting to leave。

The reality is that prices determine community development rather than community-driven prices。

When prices fall, the followers disappear. This is illustrated by the graphs — the lower left rim (reduced followers + lower prices) is very dense. When prices skyrocket, followers sometimes grow, but they are not stable。

This means:

Your "active community" never really focused on productsThey are concerned about the price movements of the coins. When token performance is disappointing, they disappear, and community growth is a lag rather than a precursor。

This is not just a theory, but a public opinion expressed by @belizard:

MOST PEOPLE COME HERE FOR SPECULATION, NOT FOR THE PRODUCT ITSELF. WE FIND THAT THERE ARE FEW AGREEMENTS THAT HAVE PERFORMED WELL SINCE THE TGE, AND MAINLY THOSE WHERE INITIAL COINS OF THE FDV ARE LOW, POORLY FUNDED AND GENEROUS. HONESTLY, I'M NOT GOING TO INVEST ANYTHING BLINDLY. RISKS/RETURNS ARE NOT COST-EFFECTIVE AND I AM JUST WAITING FOR THE MARKET TO IMPROVE。

Speculators know the game has failed. They are waiting. In the meantimeAnd the founders keep investing 60 percent of their budget in Discord robots, Twitter gifts and KOL propaganda -- burning money on statistically irrelevant indicators。

The real question is, "How many people will stay if the token falls 50% tomorrow?"

Answer: Barely。

Currency price trap, alert to over-priced/over-low

Medium-digit return on investments at currency market prices:

Less than 0.01: 0.1 times (deficit 90%)

0.01 to 0.05: 0.8 times (survival area)

0.05 to $0.50: 0.5 times (50% loss)

Over $0.50: 0.09 times (deficit 91%)

Explain again:

It's not going to make your tokens easier to start at less than 0.01, but it's going to make you a low-priced currency that attracts profit-based capital, and they're rising and falling fast。

Pricing higher than 0.5 dollars does not turn your tokens into “high-end coins”, but rather appears to be overpriced, with excessive token prices strangling the bulk market and giant whales not buying。

The price range between US$ 0.01 and US$ 0.05 is the only viable pricing area, which is high enough to justify the project and low enough to allow for an increase. Within this price range, only 42 of the 97 projects showed positive medians in tokens。

If your token economic model sets your valuation at 0.003 or $1.20, then stop rebuilding the model, and the data show that the project has failed。

Industry status: Stop construction of 2021

Loser: Gaming

AVERAGE ATH ROI: 4.46 TIMES (MINIMUM)

Medium current investment return: 0.52 times

GameFi tokens are like lottery tickets, play once and be forgotten forever。

Trap: DeFi

AVERAGE ATH ROI: 5.09 TIMES (LOOKS GOOD)

Median return on current investment: 0.2 times (catastrophic)

DeFi ' s early price boom followed by a sharp fall in magnitudes greater than in any other area, and the gap between speculation and reality was cruel。

WINNER: AI

AVERAGE ATH ROI: 5.99 TIMES (MAXIMUM INCREASE)

Medium current investment return: 0.70 times (best retention rate)

AI CURRENCY PRICES SURGED AND REMAINED STABLE. THIS TREND HAS BEEN SUSTAINED AND ACCOMPANIED BY AN INFLUX OF FUNDS。

If you're developing GameFi, you need to be 10 times more effective than the average in order to achieve a normal result. If you're in the DeFi field, you have to be prepared for rapid rise and sharp fall. If you're in the AI field, the market will give you an opportunity, but only if you can deliver. The infrastructure sector is more demanding: you will consume more time and resources than standard decentrized applications (e.g. AI agents), but your current ROI median is slightly lower than the GameFi area, where everyone is looking down。

Data doesn't care about projects of interest to you。

IDO/IEO DATA OVERVIEW: A GOOD PLATFORM DOES NOT SAVE PROJECTS

You spent months building a human connection, just to get a seat in Launchpad or a first IDOYou think filtering through a platform means being protected. The data show that this is not the case。

IDO PLATFORM: ALMOST ALL PROJECTS ARE IN DEFICIT

ONLY ONE PROJECT HAD A RETURN OF +14.6 PER CENT ON 5 IDO PLATFORMS, AND THAT WAS ALL. FOR ALL OTHER PROJECTS, THE RETURNS RANGED FROM -70 TO -93 PER CENT。

The so-called “high-level Launchpad” did not provide protection for buyers, but merely offered them a way of losing money。

IEO PLATFORM: EXTREME EXPRESSION OF EXISTENCE BIAS

The wallet shows a return of 11 times. It looks incredible, but it's only been distributed three times, and there's too few samples. MEXC showed a return of +122.8 per cent in 14 releases — a larger sample but still an anomaly. All other projects? Underperformance. Bybit IEO has a currency loss rate of 38 per cent, and the remaining projects have more serious losses。

This proves:

PLATFORM SELECTION IS LIKE A LOTTERY WITH A BETTER BRAND EFFECT. THE VICTORY OF A FEW UNUSUAL DATA DISTORTS THE AVERAGE, WHILE A LARGE NUMBER OF TOKENS HAVE FALLEN TO THE MAIN, AND THE COSTS YOU PAY FOR “SHOW SERVICES” — WHETHER THROUGH RELATIONSHIPS, UP-FRONT FEES OR TOKEN ALLOCATIONS — DO NOT PROTECT THE TOKEN ROI RELIABLY。

The platform could not save the garbage and could not help the good。

Rethinking 2025, Vision 2026

Project development based on 2025 failed at every level。

Zero: Foundation

Question: “Coin economics based on speculation”. In the absence of organic income patterns to absorb shocks, coins are sold unbridledly to under-mobility markets。

First tier: financing

THE PROBLEM IS: "MODIFY ON PDF BEFORE PROCESSING."

Second tier: market promotion

PROBLEM: KOL MODEL, USER CHARTERED BY THE PAID WATER FORCE, DISAPPEARS ONCE THE PAYMENT HAS CEASED。

Level 3: Mobility

Question: It is assumed that liquidity will increase as a result of engagement, but this is not the case, and institutional investors will wait for evidence。

Level 4: User retention

Problem: Zero retention infrastructure. The Project Community is 10,000 Telegram users who will abandon you in 90 days。

In 2026, no more old games. There is a deeper problem behind all of this, and infrastructure is indeed important, and even if it is improved, the timing will determine everything. As Ivan Paskar said:

It doesn't fix broken things -- they magnify reality. The timing is right = momentum is gaining momentum. Wrong time = years of effort have suddenly been lost. Most teams did not fail in the design of tokens, because they misjudged the stage and macro-environment, the timing was not the details, and it determined everything。

2026, what will the project do

Survival is not following the old script, but building a new script。

1. Detailed design

The target amounts to US$ 300,000 to US$ 5 million, and this is where each dollar has the highest return on investment. More money = more problems。

2. Cost of survival

The issue price is between 0.01 and 0.05 dollars. Other prices are difficult to survive. If your token economics does not fit that range, it means they have problems。

Three, top product, second token

If you cannot explain in one sentence why your token exists, then it does not exist. Gains are ahead of speculation。

4. Neglect of the vanity indicator

The number of persons of concern is a disruptive factor, with wallet activity, retention rates and income per user as key indicators。

5. Industrial realism

Before you write the code, understand the failure rate of your industry. GameFi requires twice the efficiency of implementation to achieve balance of payments. AI has the windfall — as long as you deliver。

6. Integration or extinction

The era of M&As is coming. If you can't expand independently, find a buyer. The acquisition was not a failure, but a wise move。

These six principles are important. But the fact is that the standard script is out of date and there is no more standard model for everything。