The Iranian daily newspaper Bitget UEX, the basis of the negotiations in Iran, was destroyed by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Intel surged as a result of his participation in the Terrafab project

I. Hot spots

Federal Reserve Developments

Presentation of the March meeting of the Federal Reserve: Iran ' s war magnifies the economic two-way risk

• The summary shows that the conflict in Iran has led to clear disagreements among policymakers, that prolonged fighting may impact the labour market and thus require a reduction in interest rates, and that upward pressure on inflation may force a rise in interest rates; the vast majority of officials believe that it will take longer to restore inflation to the 2 per cent target。
• Some officials supported a “two-way description” of future interest rate decisions in a post-session statement。
• The Chairman of the San Francisco Federal Reserve, Mary Daley, said that the United States economy was generally sound, but it was too early to judge the impact of the conflict on hydrocarbons and the chain effects。Market impacts: Increased uncertainty about the Federal Reserve's policy path, short-term or suppressed interest rate reduction expectations, but geo-scaling signs help to reduce overall inflationary pressures。

Major international commodities

Iran claims three violations of the 10-point plan and the Strait of Hormuz is once again closed

• The President of the Islamic Parliament of Iran, Kalibaf, spoke in social media, saying that the United States had violated three key provisions of Iran's 10-point plan for a truce, “the basis for negotiations has been destroyed” and reiterated its long-standing distrust of the United States commitment。
• ON 8 OCTOBER, LOCAL TIME, THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ WAS ONCE AGAIN CLOSED AND THE TANKER AUROURA SUDDENLY TURNED BACK TO THE PERSIAN GULF。
• The White House Press Secretary, Levitte, confirmed that the first round of face-to-face talks between the United States and Iraq would be held in Islamabad, Pakistan, in the morning of 11 November, led by Vice-President Vance, and that Iran's proposed revised streamlining would be accepted as a basis for negotiations and would be aligned with the United States “15 Point” formula; the core red line for the United States would remain unchanged, in particular “Iran shall not enrich uranium on its own”。Market impactsDespite signs of a decrease in geographical tension, there is still some repetition, which in the short term has contributed to a significant reversal of oil prices while boosting risk asset sentiment。

Macroeconomic policy

The White House has clarified the details of the ceasefire and the United States Government is considering adjusting NATO military deployments

• In Hungary, Vice-President Vance stated that the United States had never committed itself to including Lebanon in the ceasefire agreement and that Israel had agreed to exercise restraint in support of negotiations。
• According to government officials, the Trump Government is considering the withdrawal of United States military deployments from NATO countries that have been partially unable to provide substantial assistance to the Iranian operation as a “punitive” measure, which is at an early stage。Market impacts: Highlight the hard-line stance of the Trump government towards its allies, which could further influence global geopolitical patterns and energy security expectations。

Market revisiting

large commodities & foreign exchange performance

• Cash goldIN THE VICINITY OF US$ 4720/OUNCE, A SMALL 0.2 PER CENT DECLINE OF 24H WAS REPORTED, AND THE GEO-DEPRESSIVE BUYOUT PHASE WAS REDUCED BUT REMAINED HIGH。
• Cash and silverREPORT $74.5/OUNCE, 24H DOWN 0.3 PER CENT, ADJUSTED FOR GOLD IN STEP WITH RISK SENTIMENT。
• WTI CRUDE OIL2.3 per cent increase, $97/barrel reported, technical rebound in the market after the landing of ceasefire。
• Brent crude oil2.1 PER CENT INCREASE REPORTED $97 PER BARREL WITH DRIVERS CONSISTENT WITH WTI。
• United States dollar indexDeclining by 0.8 per cent and reporting 99.05, risk preference improved the need to suppress risk avoidance。

Encryption Currency Performance

• BTC: 24H FELL BY 1.2 PER CENT AND IS NOW REPORTED TO BE CLOSE TO $70,900, WHILE THE SHORT-TERM DECOMPOSITION OF GEO-RISK HAS RESULTED IN AN INCREASE IN WINDFALL PRESSURE AND A CONTINUOUS TREND TOWARDS CONVULSION。
• ETH24H FELL BY 2.2 PER CENT AND IS NOW REPORTED TO BE CLOSE TO $2190, WITH A SLIGHTLY WEAKER PERFORMANCE THAN IN LARGE VOLUMES。
• Total market value of encrypted currency: 24H FELL BY 1.4 PER CENT, WITH A TOTAL MARKET VALUE OF APPROXIMATELY $2.41 TRILLION, WHICH WAS HAMPERED BY THE REVERSAL OF MAJOR CURRENCIES。
• Market warehouse situation: 24H TOTAL BLAST TANK OF APPROXIMATELY $263 MILLION, WITH AN ADDITIONAL $160 MILLION。
• Bitget BTC/USDT liquidation mapThe current price, around 70703, is at a high level of liquidation, with a large pile of silos of 70,000 at the bottom, which can trigger a quick step down and kill. It is clear that empty liquidations above 72400 to 73300 blocks are significantly higher, and if price conflicts break down to 71,500, the market is more likely to be pushed into the upper clearing pool first。

• NET INCOMING/OUTWARD SPOT ETF: BTC NET ETF NET OUTFLOW OF ABOUT $85 MILLION YESTERDAY; ETH NET ETF SMALL NET OUTFLOW OF $9.8 MILLION YESTERDAY。
• BTC SPOT INFLOW/EXIT: yesterday, an inflow of 2,592 million went far, an outflow of $2,607 million and a net outflow of $15.32 million。

SUMMARY: WHILE THE INCREASE IN BITCOIN YESTERDAY WAS LARGELY DRIVEN BY A PHASE-DOWN OF GEO-RISK, THE ENCRYPTED TRANSIT CHARGES IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ, AS AN IMPORTANT SUPPORTING FACTOR, SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED MARKET CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG-TERM VALUE OF THE BTC. THE EVENT HIGHLIGHTED THE UNIQUE ROLE OF BITCOIN IN HIGH-RISK INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND PROVIDED A NEW DIMENSION FOR FOLLOW-UP. INVESTORS NEED TO KEEP TRACK OF THE PROGRESS OF THE 11-DAY TALKS AND THE LANDING OF ACTUAL PAYMENT CASES。

United States equity index performance

• Fingerthis is an increase of 2.85% at 47909.92 points, and the continuous movement is driven by the news of the event。
• Pistol 500A 2.51 per cent increase of 6782.81 points was reported, with a key feature being six consecutive increases。
• Nut finger2.80 per cent to 22635 points, and the plate drivers are technology and storage light communication panel lead。

Technology giant dynamics

• INTEL (INTC)+11.42 per cent, reported $58.95, significantly boosted, driven by the expected heating of storage chip demand and stabilization of the semiconductor supply chain。
• YVDA (NVDA)+2.23% FOR $182.08 SUPPORTED BY AI ' S LONG-TERM COMPUTING NEEDS。
• GOOGLE (GOOG): +3.56% REPORTING $317.32 AND AI SEARCH AND APPLICATION PROGRESSING WELL。
• APPLE (AAPL)+2.13% for US$ 258.90, consumption of electronic seasonal warming。
• AMAZON (AMZN)+3.50 per cent, reporting $221.25, cloud computing business growth is expected to be good。
• CHANNEL (AVGO): +4.99% REPORTED US$ 350.63 WITH STRONG DEMAND FOR AI CUSTOMIZED CHIPS。
• Meta (META)+6.50% reported $612.42 and the recovery in advertising continues。
• TESLA (TSLA): -0.98 per cent, reported $343.25, with minor feedback as overall risk preferences improve。

Summary of core causes: GEO-STRENGTH PHASE DE-ESCALATION DRIVES THE OVERALL REBOUND OF RISK ASSETS, FULL-LINE STORAGE/PHOTO COMMUNICATION PLATE BURSTING BECAME THE LEAD LINE, WITH INTEL PERFORMING MOST PROMINENTLY AS A KEY SUPPLIER AND RESONATING WITH THE DEMANDS OF THE AI INDUSTRIAL CHAIN。

Plank Instant Observation

Energy BlockDeclining by about 4-10 per cent

• Representative units: Chevron (CVX) - 4.4%, Exxon Mobile (XOM) - 4.7%, APA Corp. (APA) - 10%。
• Driver: The collapse of oil prices triggered a collective reversal of the energy unit。

Storage/photo communication panelFull-line explosion

• Representing units: the related semiconductor and communications units are increasing。
• Driver: Markets are expected to improve supply chain stability。

III. Depth interpretation

INTEL (INTC) - SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY UNIT

Summary of eventsIntel stock price increased by 11.42 per cent on three major occasions per week, reporting $58.95, which became a growing share of the NASDAQ technology block, magnifying by more than 40 per cent on a single day over the previous day. Core catalysts include a significant recovery in demand for the storage of chips and the optimistic expectations of the market for the company ' s AI Seal Project (Terafab project). The project, which works in depth with Elon Musk under the flag of XAI, aims to provide the next generation of AI training clusters with high-density advanced containment solutions. Geo-risk phase mitigation (the fall of the US-Iraq Ceasefire Agreement) is expected to boost the stability of the semiconductor supply chain further, with Intel benefiting directly as a key global supplier. The overall technological giants have emerged as a collective resonance, with Intel having experienced three consecutive seasons of growth in the collection of memory business, and the AI-related order share having risen to nearly 25 per cent。Market interpretationGOLDMAN SACHS, IN AGREEMENT WITH MORGAN STANLEY ANALYST, HAS REVISED THE RATINGS UPWARDS TO THE EFFECT THAT, IN A CONTEXT OF GEO-SCALING, THE RISK OF DISRUPTION OF THE GLOBAL SEMICONDUCTOR SUPPLY CHAIN IS SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED, AND THAT INTEL ' S ENERGY CONFIGURATION IN THE HBM AND ADVANCED CONTAINMENT AREAS WILL LEAD TO AN ACCELERATED FALL OF ORDERS; AND THAT AGENCIES ESTIMATE THAT, IF AI CAPITAL EXPENDITURES REMAIN HIGH, THE EPS IN INTEL 2026 IS EXPECTED TO GO UP 15-20 PER CENT。Investment revelationIN THE SHORT TERM, ATTENTION CAN BE PAID TO THE POSITIVE DRIVERS OF THE FALL IN OIL PRICES AGAINST INFLATION AND TO THE FLEXIBILITY OF THE FED'S POLICY. IN THE MEDIUM TO LONG TERM, CAPITAL EXPENDITURE TRENDS FOR THE AI SERVER AND THE COMPANY'S ABILITY TO CLIMB ARE CLOSELY TRACKED, AND IT IS PROPOSED TO ALLOCATE THEM IN BATCHES BETWEEN $55-60。

2. Meta Platforms (META) - Social Media Leading Power

Summary of events: Meta stock price increased by 6.5 per cent, reported $612.42, continuing the six-way upward trend of the current round, with a cumulative increase of over 18 per cent. The recovery in corporate advertising operations has been strong, with an 8.2 per cent increase in the ARPU (average income per user) ring over the last quarter, thanks to the AI-driven precision input algorithm upgrade and an increase in the Reels short video realization rate. Geo-risk mitigation has raised confidence in global consumption and corporate advertising spending, while VR/AR hardware from the Meta Reality Labs sector is over-anticipated, and the open-source version of the Llama series of the AI content generation tool has further expanded its ecological impact, resonating significantly with nano-technology weights。Market interpretation: Morgan Chase and Bernstein noted that risk preference for warming and macroinflation expectations would drive the overall expansion of the digital advertising market; the Meta valuation restoration space remained at 7.8 times the current dynamic market sales rate, 15 per cent below the historical average, and the double-digit increase in revenues was expected to be maintained in 2026, driven by advertising +AI。Investment revelation: GEO-CONDUCIVE CONSUMPTION AND ADVERTISING EXPENDITURES, INVESTORS ARE ADVISED TO FOCUS ON THE PROGRESS IN COMMERCIALIZATION OF AI PRODUCTS IN THE SECOND-QUARTER FINANCIAL REPORTING GUIDELINES, WITH $330-650 AS A BETTER LAYOUT WINDOW。

3. Anthropic - AI Management Smart Breakout (AI Ecocentric Event)

Summary of eventsAnthropic officially launched Claude Management Intelligence (Managed Agents), an entirely new product that combines API with the hosting environment, upgrading AI from a simple dialogue tool to a sustainable productivity system. Deployment speed increased by more than 10 times to support multi-step complex decision-making, real-time automatic error correction and cross-system integration. The product is directly connected to Google Cloud and AWS infrastructure, and more than 150 business clients have completed internal surveys, marking the key nodes of AI's transition from a “generic tool” to an “enterprise-level autonomous agent”. This breakthrough, in synergy with the expected stabilization of the supply chain brought about by geo-desertification, further boosted the demand for AI hardware and cloud services as a whole。Market interpretation: According to institutional analysts in the former OpenAI senior background, this is a milestone in the transition of AI from “tools” to “productivity systems” and will, in the long term, reshape the corporate IT expenditure structure; Goldman Sachs predicts that the size of the global AI proxy market in 2026-2027 is expected to expand from the current $15 billion to $120 billion, and that Anthropic, as a pioneer, will significantly drive upstream chips and cloud factory performance。Investment revelationFocusing on AI infrastructure-related listed companies (Intel, Broadcom, etc.), technology overlaps are expected to accelerate sector-wide capital spending and suggest this event as an important observation signal for the AI thematic configuration。

4. Micron Technology (MU) - Storage chip demand outbreak

Summary of events: The Micron stock price has grown with the storage plates, and the strong demand of the AI data centre for high bandwidth memory (HBM) and DRAM has become a central driver. The company had sold all its HBM production capacity throughout 2026, and the spot price of the memory chip had increased by 28 per cent compared to the beginning of the year, and there had been a continuing shortage of memory in AI. Georisk mitigation eased supply chain bottlenecks, and Microron, as the world ' s second largest supplier of DRAM, benefited directly from downstream AI server orders such as Intel and NVIDIA. Recent financial reports indicate that the data centre operations battalion ' s share has risen to 58 per cent, with an increase of 112 per cent over the same period。Market interpretation: The joint Citi-Swiss Bank report emphasizes that the AI-driven memory supply and demand imbalance will continue into the second half of 2027, and that the Māori rate of Microron is expected to rise further from the current 42 per cent to over 55 per cent; agencies generally rate “buy-in” at a target price range of $110-130。Investment revelationTHE STRUCTURAL SHORTAGE OF AI SERVER MEMORY OVER THE MEDIUM AND LONG TERM IS CONSIDERED, AND IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT IT BE MAINTAINED FOR THE DURATION OF THE HIGH HBM PRICE, WITH THE COMPANY ' S QUARTERLY CAPACITY UTILIZATION DATA AS A FORWARD INDICATOR。

Broadcom (AVGO) - AI Custom Chip Order Land

Summary of events: Broadcom announced the expansion of the long-term cooperation agreement with Google and Anthropic, which will provide Google with the next generation of Tensor Processing Unit (TPU) customized chips and several giva-scale AI computing capacity support for Anthropic. The total value of the order is expected to exceed $4.5 billion, the largest single customization agreement in the business history of Broadcom AI semiconductor. The progress in the delivery of chips has been further ensured by a moderate geo-situation of the increased stability of the supply chain; company AI-related receipts have reached 41 per cent, an increase of 65 per cent over the same period last year。Market interpretationAccording to Jeffrey and Barclay analysts, this has significantly increased the visibility of Broadcom AI ' s business income and consolidated its absolute lead in customizing the ASC chip; the IAI collection guide for the 2026 fiscal year is expected to be increased by 18 to 22 per cent to facilitate overall valuation revaluation。Investment revelation: A sustained increase in AI infrastructure capital spending and a clear long-term growth outlook for Broadcom, with recommendations to focus on the AI theme rotation and focus on the down-to-down rhythm of follow-up cooperation with cloud giants。

IV. Developments in encryption money projects

1Bernstein: Quantum threat is real but manageable, and the industry has three to five-year anti-quantification windows. Michael Saylor, founder and executive chairman of Strategy, argued that the risk was exaggerated and that the threat remained theoretical and could be faced decades later, and that there would be a solution

At an event organized by Michael Saylor, founder and Executive Chairman of Strategy, it was stated that bitcoin was likely to have reached its bottom near $60,000 at the beginning of February, and that the bottom was more determined by seller depletion than valuation. He considered that the current pressure was limited, that the ETF inflow was absorbing daily supplies and that the allocation of financial assets to Bitcoin by enterprises was creating a continuing demand. Saylor predicts that the catalyst for the next round of cattle markets will be the formation of a bank credit and digital credit system based on Bitcoin, which will transform Bitcoin from a non-interest asset to a capital market engine。

3. ON THE FIRST DAY OF ITS LISTING ON 8 APRIL, THE REALS UNDER MORGAN STANLEY RECORDED AN INFLOW OF APPROXIMATELY $34 MILLION, WITH A TURNOVER OF OVER 1.6 MILLION。

ACCORDING TO THE CHAIN ANALYST'S AFTER-EFFECT MONITORING, 5000 ETHS SOLD BY THE TAIFUNG FOUNDATION UNDER THIS SCHEME HAVE NOW BEEN SOLD 3,750 ($8.3 MILLION) AT AN AVERAGE SALE PRICE OF $2214。

The publication of the Chainalysis report projects stable currency transactions of up to $15 trillion by 2035. The benchmark growth alone would bring the adjusted stable currency trade to $719 trillion by 2035, and the ceiling would be significantly increased if macro-catalysts such as demographic shifts and commercial adoptions were added. According to the report, in 2025, the stabilization currency addressed about $28 trillion of “real economic activity”, which excluded transaction noise and only counted payments, remittances and settlements. Two major drivers include the projected transfer of $1 trillion of wealth from the older generations to the millennium and Z generations, which are more accustomed to digital assets, and the deeper embedding of stable currencies in commercial clearing and back-office payment systems, which users are not aware of at the time of their use. Chainalysis expects stable currency payments to be on par with Visa and everything between 2031 and 2039。

6 The Block reported that Canary Capital had submitted to the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on Wednesday an application for the listing of an exchange transaction fund to track spot prices of PEPE coins. In the document, Canary states that PEPE was launched in April 2023, with a total supply of more than 4.2 trillion pieces, and states that the Meme coin is not of any practical use. Last year, Canary also submitted an application for an ETF to track the MoG and Pengu prices。

V. Today ' s market calendar

Data release schedules

The big news

Institutional perspective:

IT IS WIDELY ACCEPTED BY LEADING IIB ANALYSTS THAT THE STRONG REBOUND OF 8 APRIL BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES SHARE AND ENCRYPTED ASSETS WAS MAINLY DUE TO THE TWO-WEEK CEASEFIRE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES AND THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, WHICH BROUGHT ABOUT A RETURN TO THE RISK PREFERENCES, AND THAT THE SHARP FALL IN OIL PRICES FURTHER EASED INFLATIONARY CONCERNS AND HELPED THE FED TO MAINTAIN FLEXIBLE POLICY SPACE. AGENCIES SUCH AS MORGAN STANLEY NOTED THAT THE MARKET WOULD FOCUS ON THE OUTCOME OF THE 11TH-DAY PAKISTAN TALKS IN THE SHORT TERM AND THAT THERE WOULD STILL BE ROOM FOR RISKY ASSETS IF THE NEGOTIATIONS MADE SUBSTANTIAL PROGRESS; HOWEVER, STATEMENTS BY THE IRANIAN PARLIAMENT SHOWED THAT DIFFERENCES REMAINED AND THAT THE RECIDIVISTITY OF THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ STILL CONSTITUTED UNCERTAINTY AND SUGGESTED THAT INVESTORS SHOULD REMAIN DISCIPLINED. GOLDMAN SACHS ANALYSTS EMPHASIZED THAT THE WEAKENING OF THE UNITED STATES DOLLAR AND GOLD AND THE BACKLASH OF SILVER REFLECTED A PHASE OF EVASIVE RELEASE, WHILE THE TOTAL MARKET VALUE OF THE ENCRYPTED MARKET EXCEEDED $2.5 TRILLION, AND THE CONTINUED NET INFLOW OF ETF FUNDS SHOWED STRONG INSTITUTIONAL ALLOCATION NEEDS. ON THE WHOLE, GEO-SCALING PROVIDES A BREATHING WINDOW FOR MARKETS, BUT THE TWO-WAY RISK HIGHLIGHTED BY THE MARCH FED’S SUMMARY REMINDS INVESTORS THAT MACRO-POLICY PATHS STILL HAVE VARIABLES AND SUGGESTS THAT ATTENTION BE PAID TO THE VALIDATION OF INFLATION EXPECTATIONS IN PCE DATA TODAY。

DISCLAIMER: THE ABOVE IS COLLATED BY AI, MANUALLY ISSUED ONLY FOR VALIDATION AND IS NOT RECOMMENDED FOR INVESTMENT。