It's $2.4 million in blood. These nine inside addresses know the war

Original by Mah, Foresight News

On 18 May, the founders of Bubblemaps, Nicolas Vaiman, and the investigative director, Deebs (former United States military officer, hiding his real name for security reasons), disclosed to the outside world that they had discovered nine highly related anonymous accounts on Polymark, which had resulted in a net gain of more than $2.4 million from the projected market for United States military operations, with a high success rate of 98 per cent。

Bubblemaps analyses these accounts in detail on Twitter, and they place almost all their bets on military incidents related to the 2026 American-Iraqi conflict, at a time that is gruesome – often a few days before the critical operation, and prefers the long-line option of low-cost compensation。

This is not simply "good luck". By technology, Bubblemaps visualizes a huge pink cluster that was previously unknown on platform X, after the Polymarket "first US strike Iran on February 28" market。

After further tracking, they are fully linked to the first four accounts and the other five through the time window, the size of the transaction, and the movement path. The financial path of the nine accounts is highly consistent: there is a suspected use of professional services to conceal traces of money that have been transferred to a network of shared wallets within a very short period of time through a centralized exchange。

4 core accounts earned $400,000 each

Early in the morning of February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched a massive joint strike, code-named “Operation Epic Fury” and “Operation Lion Roar”. The United States and Israel forces launched nearly 900 strikes against Iran within 12 hours, targeting nuclear facilities, missile bases, military command centres and high-level leadership hideouts. Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of Iran, and members of his family, the top of the Revolutionary Guard Corps, were killed in the first round。

As early as February 28th, Bubblemaps publicly marked six "fresh" accounts. Most of these accounts were created and recapitalized within 24 hours of the strike, with a precise bet on "The US will strike Iran by February 28" and a collective net gain of about $1 million (some of which are reported as $1.2 million). At that time, the market rate was extremely low, but these accounts were stymied. According to Bubblemaps, this is a "suspect of insider trading"。

Five months later, they discovered the nine-account cluster, which was larger and more successful。

Four core accounts were created a few days before February 28, each earning approximately $400,000; five subsequent accounts were linked through the flow of funds and trading overlaps. A total of more than 80 accounts were placed, almost all of them in United States military operations: the first strike on 28 February, the exact time Khamenei was cleared, the declaration of a ceasefire, etc. They even spread their bets over multiple dates to maximize the benefits, while occasionally the next two small drops (e.g., February 20) appear to be hidden。

Bubblemaps lists nine Polymarket wallet addresses (0x09d3273fa76282ce09f4f35a87d6f087c05f4e84, etc.) and emphasizes that these accounts have long been high on the profit-and-loss list. The funds eventually flow to a network of shared wallets, showing signs of specialized money-laundering or services。

Vaiman narrates: "Late cannot explain these numbers. Deebs adds that there are many sources of potential insiderism — government officials, military planners, intelligence analysts and even family members of the military。

Earlier this year, Staff Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke of the United States Army was accused of using classified information to bet on Special Operations Venezuela in Polymarket, investing $34,000 in profit and quickly cashing out $400,000 and trying to delete accounts. Polymarket actively cooperates with law enforcement and ultimately leads to prosecution. The Van Dyke case was seen as a landmark case for predicting insider trading in the market。

This time, the nine-account cluster was six times more profitable, more successful and fully focused on military incidents in the United States and Iraq。

Bubblemaps shared the survey with 60 Minutes, which generated considerable attention after its broadcast on the evening of 17 May. CBS reports that Polymarket has established an AI monitoring and block chain evidence system to inform law enforcement authorities when suspicious activities are detected and to emphasize that "the insider trade is not welcome on the platform"。

As at the time of the release, Bubblemaps did not direct nine accounts to any specific entity or government department, but merely indicated that “the connection and the near-optimal odds raise serious doubts”。

The inside and the inside

Anecdotal trading has created a great deal of unfairness for many market participants, and more measures are being taken against insider trading on forecasted market platforms, including Kalshi and Polymarket。

In late March this year, Polymarket updated its DeFi platform and the rules of market integrity of United States exchanges regulated by the United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The updated rules clarify three core prohibitions on insider trading:

• Transactions using stolen confidential information - A participant may not engage in any contractual transaction if he or she is in possession of confidential information about the outcome or possible outcome of the subject matter and the use of that information would violate a pre-existing obligation of trust or confidentiality towards another person or entity。
• It is prohibited to trade with illegal insider information - a participant may not use confidential information provided to him by another person if the information is provided by a person who has a prior obligation of trust or confidentiality towards another person and the person who provides the information knows or has reason to know that he or she will be prohibited from doing so himself。
• The person who is able to influence the outcome is engaged in the transaction - if the participant has sufficient authority or influence to influence the outcome of the event, he may not be involved in any contract transaction。

However, there is always a loophole in the rules, and since it is impossible to completely eliminate insider trading, some of the ill-conceived so-called "inner insider and single items" are also controversial. These applications provide users with an unusually high number of transactions, or are used to mark transactions of questionable timing and abnormal amounts, and to copy them。

The point of Kreo is to help users "find insider traders earlier than others", and Polycool puts out the "Polymarket insider trading guide" directly on the official web, stating, "This is not a stock market, it's not going to jail with undisclosed information, and the rules of decentrizing the market are completely different."。

And the question is, is it a violation of the address of a single insider

There is no official response。

But the so-called "innerware and single platform" such as PolyGun and Polycule were subjected to hacker attacks this year, with losses ranging from tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands of dollars。