Hyperliquid pre-discretion contract dispute: how can SpaceX stock figures not be counted

Original Odaily Daily Planet (@OdailyChina)

By Azuma (@Azuma eth)

Yesterday, Odaily's Daily Planet sent an analysis of the reasons for the huge price differentials in the SpaceX pre-discretion contracts on platforms like Cheon-An, OKX, HyperliquidWhy is there such a big difference between the SpaceX pre-disc contracts on every exchangeI don't know。

It was mentioned that prior to Hyperliquid, using the eco-based HIP-3 Market TradeXYZ on-line SpaceX pre-board contract SPCX, had disclosed in the document the use of approximately 118.77 billion shares of equity calibres, but the statements had subsequently been deleted, thus giving rise to community doubts as to whether the market would be followed by Rebase。

• Odaily note: The so-called Rebase, which is a reality-based revision of equity data and corresponding warehouse position, e.g., on the evening of 8 June, François announced that he would proceed with SPCX, and that the number of equity shares would be adjusted from the estimate of 118.77 billion shares to the $13.8 billion disclosed in the latest IPO plan。

TradeXYZ confirms no Rebase

Today, TradeXYZ officially responded to the incident。

TradeXYZ states that TradeXYZ ' s pre-closure contract, including SPCX, is a price-based, permanent contract that tracks the market ' s implicit expectation of a single price for an A-class (or common) stock。neither the total stock (share count) nor the company ' s market value (market cap) were input parameters in the market rules, the predictor pricing method or the eventual conversion mechanism。

As for the number of “118.7 billion shares” that had previously appeared in the file, TradeXYZ explained thatThere are some examples of teaching in official documentsIt explains how a “reasonable equity price” is derived by a user who is known to have an expected judgement on the company's market value and gross equity. These examples were used only to help understand the context, but the team received some feedback that they were prone to misunderstanding and were therefore removed from the document。

As a clarificationTradeXYZ confirms that, in the future, no benchmark based on gross equity or market value will be used, published or relied upon in the SPCX and all other XYZ markets。When SpaceX completes the IPO and there is enough external price data available on the market, SPCX is expected to switch to standard external predictor pricing mechanisms. At that time, the contract price is expected to gradually shrink to the open market transaction price after SpaceX is listed。

The translation is that TradeXYZ has confirmed that it will not modify equity data through Rebase, and as for the “11.87 billion shares” mentioned earlier, this is an example, let's not take it seriously ... Then TradeXYZ's pre-asset contract will no longer refer to equity data, and in reality, the company's actual stock numbers are what, and TradeXYZ's track is what it is by default

Community disputes: What about the numbers

Unsurprisingly, this statement by TradeXyZ has caused considerable controversy in the community. The main reason for this is:For SPCX participants (in particular, only users on Hyperliquid), the prevailing expectation was that the price logic of SPCX was directly related to the number of equity in SpaceX。

The “11.87 billion stock” figure had been clearly documented in official files, and TradeXYZ had explained earlier that if investors expected SpaceX valuation to be at a certain level, assuming that the company's total equity was approximately 118.77 billion, the corresponding reasonable price range could be derived. As a result, many users already see it as part of product rules。

Today, the official deletes data and rephrases them only as “teaching examples”, which obviously gives some users a “backprint”。

Although, according to TradeXYZ today, official attempts have been made to emphasize another set of product logic - i.e., different from the design of market value and equity-mapping prices through platforms such as Currency, OKX, etcTradeXYZ prefers to view SPCX as an independent trading market with prices that directly reflect market participants ' expectations of future SpaceX stock prices rather than theoretical results derived from equity data calculations。

For the vast majority of users, however, it is not easy to understand the differences between product rules and design in different markets. And during the same time cycle, platforms like Français, OKX, and others are discussing publicly the number of equity, the valuation mapping and the Rebase mechanism, and markets naturally use the same logic to assess TradeXYZ and Hyperliquid..

The deviations between user perceptions and product design eventually evolved into a debate about product transparency and expected management。

Will the pattern change

However this dispute ends, there is no question that it will endSpaceX prediscretion contracts have become the largest and most focused "IPO preview" in the history of the encryption market。

Of even greater concern is the fact that as Anthropic, OpenAI waits for the growing number of unlisted star companies to be moved to the chain trading market, the pre-contract track itself is entering a new phase of competition。

IN THE PAST, THE FOCUS OF COMPETITION BETWEEN EXCHANGES WAS MORE ON WHO COULD TAKE THE LEAD, BUT AFTER THE SPCX EVENTThe market may begin to focus more on another thing -- who has clearer rules, who has more transparent pricing logic, who can provide a more stable and predictable product framework for users。