The anti-war speech and the bet on smoke: Who's going to war on Polymarket
The war continues, with a fourfold gain in bets。
Original title: Nigel Farage Milkshanke"d while tracking with shadowy crypto all
Original by: Protos
Original by Peggy, Block Beats
According to the editor, the relationship between war and capital is particularly interesting when the public position of politicians intersects with the forecasted stakes on the market。
According to recent news, George Cottrell, a long-term assistant to Britain's right-wing politician Nigel Farage, made a $41,000 bet on the prognosis market, betting that the war between the United States and Iran would continue at least after 30 June 2026. If the bets were successful, he would receive approximately $123,000 in proceeds。
This paper revolves around this event, combing the contentious background of Cottrell and its trading records in the forecast market, and further extending to a network of encrypted capital that is emerging around Farage. From personal speculation to political money, from predictive markets to military and geopolitical issues, these seemingly fragmented threads are mapping the increasingly complex intersection between encrypted capital, politicians and war narratives。
The following is the original text:
Political positions contradicted personal bets
The British politician Nigel Farage’s assistant George Cottrell recently put $41,000 on the forecast market Polymark, betting that the war between the United States and Iran will continue for at least four months。
This bet comes against the backdrop of the recent public calls by the Reform UK to end the conflict。
In February this year, after Israel and the United States launched an attack on Iran, Farachi criticized British Prime Minister Keir Starmer for not allowing United States troops to use British military bases。
Prior to this week ' s shift in positions, the Reform Party has been advocating that Britain should support this United States-led military operation。
However, the party politician Robert Jenkins recently stated that the war should be "end as soon as possible" because it could have a negative impact on the British economy. Farachi subsequently stated that the United Kingdom should avoid becoming involved in the conflict. However, the reason he gave was that the British defense capacity was inadequate - The previous drone attack on Cyprus raised concerns about security capabilities。
Despite a change in the reform party’s position, Cortrell was betting between 7 and 9 March that the United States and Iran would not reach a ceasefire agreement before 30 June 2026。
Encryption investigator ZachXBT said that he was "highly convinced" that the actual holder of GCotrell93 was Cottrell。
If the bet was finally established, he would receive approximately $123,000 in proceeds. However, the current market pricing does not support this determination and the transaction is currently in an unrealized deficit of approximately $6240。
Politicians, gamblers, fraudsters? The contentious background of the long-term assistant George Cottrell
According to various media reports, George Cottrell, long considered the "right hand" of Nigel Farage, has been a controversial figure in the British political arena。
In March 2017, Cottrell was convicted in the United States for telecommunications fraud. The law enforcement authorities found that he had agreed to assist in the laundering of funds derived from drug trafficking and had been caught on the spot during fishing operations by law enforcement agencies。
Cottrell has also lived in Montenegro for some time and has been involved in investigations related to illegal political financing there. He was also investigated for the use of an encrypted currency, ATM。
Besides, Cortrell's also a fanatic gambler. He reportedly lost 20 million euros (approximately $23 million) in a local poker game。
And on the encrypted forecast market, Polymarket, his recent trading performance was equally poor. He had a stake in political events, including whether British Prime Minister Keir Starmer had stepped down, whether the United States would strike Iran, and the votes of the new Mayor of New York, Zohran Mamdani. These transactions have resulted in losses in excess of $800,000。
Despite this, these losses appear to be negligible compared to his previous large profit. In the United States presidential election of 2024, Cottrell bet Donald Trump on his winnings, and eventually earns about $13.2 million。
Encrypted capital and the political network of Nigel Farage
George Cottrell is just one of the links in Nigel Farage's encryption network。
The network now also includes former British Treasury Minister Kwasi Kwateng and his Bitcoin Investment Company. Recently, Farachi has just invested £215,000 (approximately US$289,000) in the company。
On the financial front, one of the largest supporters of the Reform UK is Tether shareholder Christopher Harborne. Just last week, his cumulative contribution to the reform party led by Farachi exceeded £22 million (approximately US$29.6 million)。
The Guardian reported that Tether shareholder Haburn was also associated with a private aircraft. The plane sent Nigel Farage to the vicinity of Chagos Island at the end of February this year。
The trip was in the context of a controversial agreement being advanced by the British Government to transfer sovereignty over the Chagos Archipelago to Mauritius, but the United Kingdom would continue to rent local military bases for 99 years。
Farachi's trip was aimed at reinforcing the opposition of the Reform UK to the agreement。
However, the trip was not smooth. Farachi was initially sent to Maldives (Maldives) but was refused entry by the British military while attempting to travel to the Chagos Archipelago. Subsequently, he travelled to the Maritime Lake Estate (Mar-a-Lago), Florida, to try to discuss the agreement with Trump, but they did not finally meet。
Editor: The core facility on the Chagos Archipelago is the Diego Garcia base, a joint British-American military base and one of the most important strategic nodes of the United States in the Indian Ocean, used for long periods of military operations, intelligence gathering and strategic bomber deployment in the Middle East。
Under the arrangements advanced by the British Government, sovereignty over the Chagos Archipelago will be transferred to Mauritius, but the United Kingdom will continue to use the Diego Garcia base under a 99-year lease, which will also continue to operate as a joint British-United States military base。
This agreement was advanced in the context of a long-standing view by the International Court of Justice and the United Nations that British control over the Chagos Archipelago lacked legitimacy that year, while Mauritius continued to demand the return of sovereignty. The British Government wants this historical dispute to be resolved through the return of sovereignty + long-term rental bases, while maintaining the existing military deployment。
However, Nigel Farage and his party, Reform UK, were strongly opposed to this arrangement, considering it to be tantamount to relinquishing British territory and fearing possible political restrictions on future base use, thereby weakening British strategic influence。
Farachi had planned to travel to the field to make a political statement in order to express his opposition. However, the Chagos Archipelago is a closed military area and is inaccessible to ordinary people. He was initially sent to Maldives (Maldives) and tried to go to the islands, but was refused entry to the base island by the British military。
Farachi then travelled to the United States to enlist the support of Trump. His vision was that if Trump publicly opposed the agreement, the United States might put pressure on the British Government. So he went to the Mar-a-Lago Park in Florida, where he tried to meet him, but the two parties were eventually unable to meet。
In addition to holding Tether's shares, Haber was one of the largest shareholders in the British military engineering enterprise QinetQ. Over the past year, United States subsidiaries in QinetQ have been awarded various United States Army contracts, including:
Participation in a $4 billion military surveillance system contract
41 million US dollars for the development of anti-unmanned technology
It also took over a research and development contract for a new target acquisition system。
In addition, during Boris Johnson's administration, the company was awarded millions of British pounds of military engineering contracts。
However, despite continuing contracts, Reuters reported earlier this year that the company was restructuring its United States operations due to geopolitical uncertainties and operational and profit-making pressures resulting from changing procurement cycles。
