(a) Bitget UEX daily, rising oil prices in the US-Iraq conflict; increased pressure on private credit to redeem; Tesla was granted indirect holding of SpaceX (13.03.26)

I. Hot spots

Federal Reserve Developments

Federal Reserve officials expect interest rates to be maintained for some time

The Chairman of the Cleveland Federal Reserve, Beth Hamaker, stated that monetary policy was currently neutral and did not need to be adjusted immediately, given that inflation remained high and the job market softened。

• Inflationary pressures continued, and employment indicators showed signs of a slowdown。
• The policy after the interest rate reduction of last year has been balanced and will remain stable for a longer period of time under the baseline scenario。
• There are two-way risks and data evolution needs to be observed. This statement reinforces the market ' s consensus that the March meeting will be held in a static manner or will contain bond rate fluctuations, underpin the dollar and constrain the equity market ' s risk preferences。

Major international commodities

America and Israel are spilling over global supply chains

The US-Iran attack on Iran led to an increase in energy and fertilizer transport costs in the Strait of Hormuz。

• The United Nations reported rising shipping costs and shocks to the fertilizer supply chain。
• Farmers in the United States may need to adjust their farming structures to deal with disruptions in supply. This event magnified inflation concerns and contributed to the strengthening of energy units and agricultural input blocks。

Iran allows some ships to pass through Hormuz

The Deputy Foreign Minister of Iran has indicated that vessels of non-aggression States are allowed to pass, but the aggressor State has no right to security。

• The absence of mines in the straits eased some market tensions。
• Brent crude oil is still at a high of $100 per barrel since August 2022. It helps to stabilize shipping in the short term, but geo-risks continue to affect oil prices。

Macroeconomic policy

The United States proposes to exempt the Jones Act from fuel price increases

The Trump Government is considering a 30-day exemption to guarantee transportation of energy and agricultural products。

• The situation in Iran led to supply disruptions and soaring prices。
• The announcement was made on 13 March. This policy is aimed at alleviating the domestic energy crisis or supporting the performance of the relevant industrial units。

America allows some Russian oil sales

The Ministry of Finance issued a licence to allow the sale of Russian oil already loaded until 11 April。

• Effective from 12 March。
• The global energy supply is strained. It helped to ease the pressure on oil prices, but was limited by events in Iran。

Market revisiting

large commodities & foreign exchange performance

• Cash gold: $5,108.39 per ounce, 0.54 per cent increase, with two consecutive days of return being affected by inflation concerns and dollar swings。
• Cash and silver: $84.96 per ounce, 1.38 per cent increase, followed by fluctuations in gold prices, which increased the decline in industrial demand。
• WTI CRUDE OIL: US$ 95.15/barrel, by 0.61 per cent, with geo-stress driving a small repulsion after an earlier escalation。
• Brent crude oil$99.93 per barrel, a decrease of 0.67 per cent, a reversal of $100, and supply disruption concerns dominated。
• United States dollar index99.65, with a slight drop of 0.09 per cent, the trend is strong and benefits from the escalation of risk avoidance and conflict between the United States and Iraq。

Analyst Dara Doyle said that the market had interpreted the statements of the new supreme leader, Mujtaba Khamenei, to be quite strong, and there seemed to be little indication that Iran was prepared to yield to the United States and Israel. In his first public statement after taking office, he stated that the Strait of Hormuz should remain closed and threatened to open a new front in the war. This has heightened the market ' s concern about the continued disruption of supply of critical global oil throats, a sharp rise in the rates of return on United States debt and oil prices, a fall in stock markets and a rise in the dollar index to a rising high。

Encryption Currency Performance

• BTC: US$ 71,417.13 AND 24H UP 1.68 PER CENT, CONTINUING THE REBOUND TREND, DRIVEN BY ETF INFLOW AND IMPROVED MARKET SENTIMENT。
• ETH: US$ 2,122.23, 24H UP 3.42%, FOLLOW BTC STRONG AND NETWORK UPGRADE EXPECTED TO PROVIDE SUPPORT。
• Total market value of encrypted currency2.52 TRILLION UNITED STATES DOLLARS, A 2.2 PER CENT INCREASE IN 24H, STABLE IN VOLATILITY, GEO-RISK AND ETF INFLOWS。
• Market warehouse situationTHE TOTAL AMOUNT OF THE 24H BLAST WAREHOUSE WAS $256 MILLION, THE TOTAL AMOUNT OF THE MULTIPLE SINGLE DETONATION WAREHOUSE WAS $86 MILLION AND THE AMOUNT OF THE EMPTY SINGLE DETONATION WAREHOUSE WAS $170 MILLION。

• Bitget BTC/USDT liquidation mapTHE CURRENT PRICES ARE $71396, $68,500-70,500, AND THERE IS A LARGE POOL OF MULTIPLE CLEARING LEVERS, WHICH COULD TRIGGER A CHAIN OF MULTIPLE-HEAD SILOS AND INCREASE DOWNWARD PRESSURE IF BTC RETURNS TO THE BLOCK. SOME $71,400 ABOVE BEGINS TO ACCUMULATE EMPTY LIQUIDATIONS AND IS FURTHER DENSE AROUND $73,000, WHICH COULD TRIGGER A ROUND OF EMPTY CROWDS IF PRICES CONTINUE TO RISE。
• CASH ETF INFLOWS/EXIT:THE BTC SPOT ETF, WHICH HAD A NET INFLOW OF $7.7 MILLION YESTERDAY, HAD A NET INFLOW OF FOUR CONSECUTIVE DAYS; THE ETH SPOT HAD A NET INFLOW OF $53.7 MILLION YESTERDAY AND A NET INFLOW OF THREE CONSECUTIVE DAYS。
• BTC SPOT INFLOW/EXITTHE PREVIOUS DAY, THE BTC HAD INFLOWED $2,358 MILLION, OUTFLOWS $2,438 MILLION AND NET INFLOWS OF $77.5 MILLION。

United States equity index performance

• Finger46,677.85, a 1.56 per cent drop (739.42) and a three-day fall, driven by geo-risk and oil price increases。
• Pistol 5006,672.58, a 1.52 per cent drop (-103.18 points) and a downward spiral in the Technological Unit。
• Nut finger22,311.98, 1.78% drop (404.16 points) and technological giants fall, influenced by inflation concerns and pressure on private credit to redeem。

Technology giant dynamics

• Young Wai Da1.55 PER CENT DOWN, $183.14 RECEIVED, AND AI DEMAND WAS STRONG BUT OVERALL MARKET SALES DOMINATED。
• Amazon1.47 per cent lower, $212.65 lower, bonds issued strong but inflation risk suppressed。
• Tesla3.14 per cent down, $395.01, SpaceX equity conversions were good but big。
• Meta2.55 per cent down to $638.18, while the expansion of the data centre did not offset the risk-averse。
• Apple1.94 per cent below $255.76, with weaker product cycles and increased market volatility。
• Microsoft: A DROP OF 0.75 PER CENT AND A GAIN OF $401.86, AND A FALL IN CONFRONTATION BUT A PRESSURE ON AI EXPENDITURE。
• Google1.67 PER CENT DOWN TO $303.55, WHILE AI WAS FUNCTIONALLY PRODIGIOUS BUT EMOTIONALLY DEPRESSED。

The main causes of the overall decline were: the US and Iran were nervously pushing up oil prices, exacerbating inflation concerns and triggering private credit foreclosures, and risk-averse sentiment dominated the technology sector。

Plank Instant Observation

A 6.5% increase in agricultural inputs

• REPRESENTATION OF UNITS: CF INDUSTRIAL HOLDINGS, UP 13.21 PER CENT; ORÉGIN INDUSTRIES, UP 12.5 PER CENT。
• Drivers: U.S.-I. war strikes globalized fertilizer supply chains, transport costs rise to stimulate demand, farmers adjust their planting structures to expect good fertilizer and seed units。

III. Depth interpretation

1. Adobe - Performance in the first financial season exceeded expectations but guided the CEO away

Summary of eventsThe first quarter of Adobe received $640 million, an increase of 12 per cent over the same period, and the adjusted EPS was $6.06, which exceeded the projected $5.86, and the annualized recurrent revenue of the priority products of AI doubled. The company has undergone two major changes, from traditional software to cloud transformation and AI integration, and the current CEO Shantanu Narayen has been in power for 18 years, leaving office after his successor has been identified. The second financial season guidelines of $525-53 million were slightly lower than the analyst ' s projection of $531 million. In the background, Adobe is exploring ways to commercialize AI, but changes in leadership raise strategic continuity concerns. Evening stock prices fell by over 7 per cent, reflecting investors ' caution about the uncertainty of the transition period. This event is related to the acceleration of AI applications, but there are doubts about the sustainability of growth, which may affect the pace of short-term innovation as a result of the introduction of AI products, including 2025。

Market interpretationGoldman Sachs maintains buy-in ratings, emphasizing the strong transformation potential of AI; Morgan Stanley lowers the target price, pointing to CEO succession uncertainty or exacerbating short-term pressures; Wolfe Research moves down to $440 but keeps track of traditional business downturns; and UBS is neutral, with concern that guidance points to the slow monetization of AI。

Investment revelation: AI DRIVES LONG-TERM GROWTH CLEARLY, BUT MANAGEMENT RISKS OF CHANGE NEED TO BE VIGILANT, SUITABLE FOR LONG-TERM INVESTORS TO SET UP IN RETURN AND OBSERVE Q2 GUIDELINES FOR IMPLEMENTATION。

1. Tesla - has been approved to convert to SpaceX through XAI investments

Summary of events: Tesla was approved by the FTC to convert approximately $2 billion xAI investments into spaceX equity of less than 1 per cent. This took place in the lead-up to SpaceX IPO, strengthening the Musk ecological synergy, including the integration of electric vehicles, AI and space technology. Against the background of 2025 xAI and SpaceX merger, valued at $1.25 trillion, Tesla ' s previous shareholder proposal for investment xAI was not approved but eventually realized. The conversion of formal financial links is sensitive to SpaceX ' s potential 1.75 trillion United States dollars in valuation records. The stock price fell by 3.14 per cent and was burdened by a large but diverse layout. The result was the restructuring of the Mask Empire, with the result that Tesla technology might be made more competitive, but the focus of the car was dispersed。

Market interpretation: Barclay sees this as enhancing the potential for space technology integration; Leather Tesla's story; the Bank's warning of stock conversion or fragmentation of resources, short-term stress; Wedbush's perception of cross-corporate collaborations, fullish, with more xAI-SpaceX-Tesla interaction expected; Seeing Alpha Analysts benefits and challenges, growth opportunities outweighed risks。

Investment revelation• Multi-formulation is good for long-term ecological values, but geo-risk dominates the short-term, and it is recommended to monitor SpaceX IPO progress and assess the impact of car operations。

1. Amazon - oversubscription of $54 billion in bonds issued

Summary of eventsThe Amazon issued US$ 37 billion and €14.5 billion, with a total of Euromarket corporate debt record and $126 billion in subscriptions. The company is considered to be a volatile market safe harbour, with funds for the AI data centre and infrastructure expansion. In the context of the planned investments of $20 billion in chips and equipment in 2026, the expected trigger for a return-back cycle for equity investors was exceeded. The launch was completed in the context of increased oil price volatility caused by the inter-American conflict, highlighting strong credit. Equity prices fell by 1.47 per cent, but highlighted financial flexibility. The former, including the surge in AI Capex, may have the effect of increasing the debt burden but supporting growth。

Market interpretation: Citigroup praises the ability to finance and underpins the expansion of AI; Deutsche Bank notes that it is too large, in a high interest rate environment, or that it compresses profits; Schroders emphasizes that the Amazon is in good cash but in need of AI insatiable; Bloomberg analysts argue that pricing is too much to supply and investors question the need for large distributions。

Investment revelation: FINANCIAL SOUNDNESS IS APPROPRIATE FOR DEFENCE CONFIGURATION, BUT ALERT TO INCREASED DEBT AND INTEREST RATE RISK, AND FOCUS ON AI INVESTMENT RETURN。

1. Microsoft & Meta - New data centre lease commitment of nearly $50 billion

Summary of events: Microsoft and Meta each added around $50 billion in lease commitments totalling over $700 billion to support AI development. Microsoft holds $15.5 billion in future commitments and Meta $104 billion. This reflects the outbreak of AI computing needs, with accelerated expansion following server shortages in 2025 and a new 1 GW capacity for Microsoft Q4. Leases are mostly for 15-19 years and may be partially cancelled. The share price fell by 0.75 per cent and 2.55 per cent, respectively, which was affected by the sale of the technology stock. The pre-factors are AI model training needs and the consequences include potential cash flow pressures but ensuring capacity leads。

Market interpretationGoldman Sachs sees the return on investment in infrastructure as a driving force for AI leadership; Morgan Chase is concerned about overspending short-term cash flows; Moody's points to $662 billion off-balance risk, highlighting accounting challenges; Bloomberg analysis highlights the upgrading of AI but supply bottlenecks or persistence。

Investment revelation: THE AI TREND CLEARLY UNDERPINS LONG-TERM GROWTH, BUT THE MEDIUM- AND LONG-TERM LAYOUT IS APPROPRIATE TO MONITOR THE EFFICIENCY AND RETURNS OF EXPENDITURES。

1. Samsung & Samsung; Ingweida - Partnership to accelerate the next generation of NAND flash development

Summary of eventsSamsung, in partnership with Young Weidar, is developing an iron-based NAND flash, using a physical information neurocalculator model that is 10,000 times faster than currently available. Research results have been published, ranging from development to commercialization. In the background, memory innovation is driven by the demand for AI chips, and Samsung, as the largest memory customer in Britain, aims to enhance the storage performance of ultra-low power consumption. Timescales overlap with AI infrastructure growth and may affect data centre efficiency. The stock price reaction has been factored into the overall decline in the British Wida. The causes included HBM ramp-up in 2025, with consequences or tightening of conventional memory supplies, which contributed to rising prices。

Market interpretationThe Seoul Journal of Economics cited industry officials, emphasizing the Alliance ' s acceleration of the AI memory architecture transformation; Morgan Stanley suggested buying a Samsung recall unit as an opportunity to complicate the AI memory ecology; Seeking Alpha analyst called it cooperative but competitive to locate Samsung HBM。

Investment revelationSTRENGTHENED AI MEMORY LEADERSHIP THAT IS APPROPRIATE TO THE CONCERNS OF TECHNOLOGY INVESTORS, BUT NEEDS TO ASSESS THE PRICE IMPLICATIONS OF REDUCTIONS IN PRODUCTION。

IV. Developments in encryption money projects

1, Aptos (APT) completed the unlocking of 11.31 million decorums, representing 0.69 per cent of the circulation, with potential sales under control but stable network activity. WhiteBIT (WBT) was unlocked on 13 March on a large scale, valued at approximately $4.18 billion, or affected the liquidity and ecology of the exchange。

The first day of trading in the iShares Staked Etherum Trust (ETHB) of Beled amounted to $15.5 million. NASDAQ data show that ETHB had 592,804 transactions on the first day of Thursday, corresponding to approximately $15.5 million. James Seyffart, a Bloomberg ETF analyst, continues to give a positive assessment, stating that “it is very, very solid for ETF, which was listed on the first day”。

3. THE US SEC INVESTOR ADVISORY COMMITTEE VOTED TO ADOPT RECOMMENDATIONS TO SUPPORT FURTHERING THE POLICY OF REGULATING TOKENIZED SECURITIES AND ALLOWING STOCK EXCHANGES TO BYPASS WALL STREET INVESTMENT CORPORATION’S DECADES-LONG RELIANCE ON INTERMEDIARY SETTLEMENTS。

According to CriptoQuant, a chain analysis company, ETA is facing a “opposition paradox” that Internet activity is at an all-time high, while ETH prices have fallen sharply. The CryptoQuant Research Manager indicated that, if the bear city continued, ETH could fall further to around $1,500, a level that could appear at the end of the third or the beginning of the fourth quarter of this year。

5. ACCORDING TO MORGAN CHASE ANALYSTS, SINCE THE START OF THE IRANIAN WAR ON 27 FEBRUARY, THERE HAS BEEN A MARKED POLARIZATION IN THE MOVEMENT OF FUNDS BETWEEN BITCOIN AND GOLD ETF. THE LARGEST GOLD ETF GLD RECORDED ABOUT 2.7 PER CENT OF THE OUTFLOWS, WHILE THE LARGEST SPOT VALUE, ETF IBIT, RECORDED ABOUT 1.5 PER CENT OF THE INFLOWS. SINCE LAST OCTOBER, THERE HAS BEEN A SHIFT FROM BITCOIN TO GOLD, ESPECIALLY AMONG BULK INVESTORS, BUT THE CUMULATIVE TOTAL OF IBIT INFLOWS SINCE 2024 IS STILL ABOUT TWICE AS HIGH AS GLD。

According to ARK Invest and Unchained, the White Paper on Bitcoin and Quantification states that the current quantum calculations are not sufficient to threaten the security of bitcoin and that quantum risks will gradually emerge through a series of observable technological milestones rather than a sudden “Q day” collapse. The report states that about 65.4 per cent of the Bitcoin supply (about 13 million) is in non-quantitative vulnerable addresses, about 8.6 per cent (about 1.7 million) is in the early P2PK site, which is considered to be lost and vulnerable, and about 5.2 million in reusable or P2TR addresses, with a total supply of about 35 per cent having potential quantum attack surfaces。

V. Today ' s market calendar

Data release schedules

The big news

• 13 March (Fri)

  AT 2030, THE UNITED STATES CORE PCE PRICE INDEX WAS PUBLISHED ON A YEAR-ON-YEAR BASIS, WITH AN EXPECTED 3.1 PER CENT

  Prime Minister Gohmer of Japan met with Prime Minister Mark Kani of Canada to discuss the situation in the Middle East。

Institutional perspective:

According to Goldman Sachs, the drop of more than 1.5 per cent in the three major indices of the United States share was caused by the sharp rise in oil prices in the American-Iraq conflict, and it was suggested that the share of energy in agriculture should be increased. Chase Morgan stressed that private credit redeemed the liquidity risk, referring to short-term underwriting but the AI theme was optimistic. On precious metals, the Swiss Bank considers the return of gold to be normal and to be restrained by the dollar but supported by geographical tensions in the medium term. In the crude oil market, Citi forecast fluctuations near the US$ WTI95, Hormuz news eased panic, but Iran stated that it added uncertainty. In foreign exchange, Barclay looks at the United States dollar at 99.7 and avoids risk. In the area of encryption, Morgan Stanley claims that the BTC $70 million broke into the ETF $115 million, that the ETH rebounded with a 0.22 per cent decline in the total market value reflects caution and concerns about blast storage against fluctuations; and that ZX Squared Capital warned the BTC deep-earth bear market that a further 30 per cent could fall。

DISCLAIMER: THE ABOVE IS COLLATED BY AI, MANUALLY ISSUED ONLY FOR VALIDATION AND IS NOT RECOMMENDED FOR INVESTMENT。