Original video title: Cripto Winter or Buying Office? Dan Morehead's 4-Year Outlook

Original video source: The Master Manager Podcast with Wilfred Frost

Original language: White sector block chain

During this interview, Wilfred Frost had a second in-depth dialogue with Dan Morehead, founder of Pantera Capital. They looked at how bitcoin receded from the top 50 percent of the cycle; how the devaluation of the French currency created intergenerational wealth conflicts; and why this round of "smart money" was the last to enter。

Summary of outstanding views

• Most institutional investors remain zero per cent, literally zero, on the block chain。

• It is not gold that's up high, it's paper that's up low。

• This could be the first "smart money" in history to end up in business。

• The average age of first-time buyers in the United States has been reduced from 28 to 40。

• We are facing an intergenerational turning point where the currency is separated from the State。

• There is a high risk that stable currency will take half of bank deposits within 10 years。

• Bitcoin has reached flight speed, and I cannot find anything to derail the process。

• If you don't have any chain openings, you're kind of emptying the trend。

01, "The most asymmetrical transaction in history."

Moderator: Last time you came, we went into the macro logic of encrypted currency. The first time you bought bitcoin, it was amazingly low. How many

Dan Morehead:$65。

Moderator: 65 dollars, compared to our price today of about $66,000, is just two worlds. In that show, you described bitcoin as "the most asymmetrical deal in history." Do you still hold that view today

Dan Morehead:Yeah, I'm still sure of that. Throughout my career, I have been looking for asymmetrical opportunities that have much greater potential to rise than the risk of falling. Bitcoin, and the wider field of encryption, is the strongest asymmetric transaction I've ever seen。

In the early days, I'll tell people that you could have lost all the principal, so don't invest more money than you can afford. But at the same time, you could get five, ten, or even a thousand times the return。

The reason I still look forward to it is that we are still very early。Most institutional investors still have a zero percent position on block chains and encrypted money. Literally zero. This asymmetry will not disappear as long as downside risk is insignificant relative to the volume of global financial assets, and the upper space is a redefinition of the entire monetary system。

2nd, 4th cycle

Moderator: We last recorded on October 12th, when the timing was fun. On or about 6 October, the encrypted currency reached a stage high, followed by a return. Since then, bitcoin has fallen by about 50%. How do you interpret this crash as someone who's been through multiple cycles

Dan Morehead:Any attempt to change the world will be accompanied by a great deal of speculation and volatility. There was optimism when it was higher and pessimism when it was lower. Pantera has been working in this industry for 13 years and has been going through four full four-year cycles. These cycles are very regular and even predictable。

When we met in October, it happened to be near the height we predicted two or three years ago. We estimate that bitcoin will reach a stage high in August or so in 2025, based on models from the first three cycles. While we hoped to see different results this time, such as a break in the cycle of new government policies, after all, the cycle pattern was self-fulfilled. The market fell back 50%. Sounds like a lot, but it's a lot easier than the previous cycle, 85% of the drop, and this time it's actually a lot milder. Markets may take about a year to build, consistent with past patterns。

Moderator: You didn't show up empty. Do you think this cycle will end up falling 75% to 80% as before

Dan Morehead:This is a key issue. I did not predict so much decline, because there were many positive factors. But the market has its own rhythm. I would like to point out that, at previous heights, prices have deviated far from the long logarithmic trend line, showing a crazy parabolic trend. For example, in 2013, the price increased 10 times in the first four months. And this time, the price didn't turn out to be that extreme heat, it just roughly returned to 2021。

So I think the current price is probably at the bottom. Although it may take six months or eight months to build up the base, it will be difficult to find a solution to the problemBut if you have a four to five-year investment perspective, it's an attractive locationI don't know。

Moderator: The current price is around $66,000. A lot of tech analysts say $60,000 is a key supporting position, and if it falls, it could go down to $25,000. Do you agree

Dan Morehead:I'm not good at technical analysis of that stuff. We never try to make super short-term timing deals. We manage funds more like venture capital, with a perspective of 5 years, 10 years or even 20 years. From this point of view, prices are now quite cheap。

Why is Bitcoin always the first to get hit

Moderator: Why is Bitcoin always a "breathbox" in risky assets? When NASDAQ and the Pistol 500 see the top, encrypted money is often the first to be sold. Will this last forever

Dan Morehead:It's a very sharp observation. Think about it. You can't sell stocks if you have a major shock outside the trading hours from Monday to Friday. Encrypted money is the only high-liquid market in the world of $2 trillion, open 24 hours a year。

When geopolitical crises break out, and institutions want to reduce exposure immediately, Bitcoin becomes their only real-time real-time real-time asset。This has led to too much pressure in the short term. Note, however, that while the correlation will soar at the time of the flashfall, in the long run, bitcoin has a low correlation with the marker 500, probably between 0.1 and 0.2. In the dimensions of several years, the encrypted currency moves up independently, while traditional assets may be simply moving forward。

04, not gold. Paper money is at a record low

Moderator: Let's talk about gold. In the last 12 months, gold has risen by 55 per cent, while bitcoin is almost even. Does this shake the bitcoin narrative of digital gold

Dan Morehead:GOLD IS AN INTERESTING OLD-FASHIONED ASSET. IT ENTERS THE PUBLIC VIEW PERIODICALLY. UNTIL 2025, GOLD ETF WAS ACTUALLY NET-OUT FOR YEARS, AND ALL THE MONEY WAS IN BITCOIN ETF. BY 2025, HOWEVER, THERE WAS A SUDDEN REALIZATION THAT THE DOLLAR WAS DEVALUING AT AN ACCELERATED RATE, A SENSE OF URGENCY THAT BROUGHT BACK THE GOLD。

But I think differently:It is not gold or real estate that has reached new heights, but paper notes that are at historical lows。As the printing machines continue to operate, the number of notes required to buy fixed amounts of assets is bound to rise. The term Pounds is initially a pound of pure silver, and now you have to take hundreds of notes to buy the same weight of silver. The government can print money indefinitely, which is at the heart of the devaluation deal。

Moderator: Are we not now in an alarming devaluation cycle

Dan Morehead:Absolutely. The Fed's definition of "stable prices" as a 2% depreciation per year is absurd in itself. Stability should be zero. Even with only 2% depreciation per year, a person's purchasing power will shrink by almost 90% over his lifetime. I think people are waking up to the need to hold a fixed number of hard assets, whether stocks, gold or encrypted currency。

This devaluation also has a clear intergenerational character。Large-scale printing of banknotes has pushed up asset prices, benefiting older generations who already hold property and shares, but squeezing the space for youth to rise. The average age of first-time buyers in the United States has been reduced from 28 to 40. Since wealth cannot be accumulated through traditional routes, it is a rational choice for the younger generation to turn to encrypted currencies. If you look at the wage growth and the housing price growth curve since 1990, you'll find that the cutter is already out of proportion。

05. Separation of currency from the State

Moderator: How can geopolitical conflicts change the logic of encrypted currency

Dan Morehead:War always leads to sustained inflation. But more importantly, we are witnessing "the separation of money from the State". In ancient times, money was gold and it was naturally independent of the Government. The Government subsequently had a monopoly on printing money, but they had proved to be poorly managed。

Over the next decade, there will be a growing realization that currency does not require national endorsement. This trend has been made clearer by geopolitical conflicts — the world is becoming a camp。If you are a country that does not belong to the United States, or if you fear that your assets may be sanctioned and frozen, you would want an asset that is not controlled by any single State. China had invested large amounts of foreign exchange reserves in United States Treasury debt, which was becoming increasingly risky in the current international landscape. The value of Bitcoin, as an asset independent of the banking system and the sanctions system, is even more pronounced in conflict。

06, Smart Money is finally in

Moderator: How many people do they really hold encrypted currency? Is there a lot of real institutional space around the globe

Dan Morehead:Still very little. Although 34 billion people worldwide hold encrypted currencies, they are mostly small holdings of “vote” types. But I think that in 10 years, thanks to the widespread availability of smartphones (4 billion users worldwide), most people will use encrypted money. It transfers across borders quickly, almost free of charge and without the permission of anyone。

This may be the first "smart money" of its kind to enter the world. All the investment opportunities I've seen in the last 40 years are usually meat first on Wall Street and last switch. This time, in complete reverse, individual investors are at the forefront. I was with many of the hundreds of billions of dollars of alternative investors, many of whom know nothing about bitcoin。

That's why I see it so well..These smart, rich institutions will come in someday. FieldI don't know. Coinbase is now included in the 500 index. If you don't have any chain openings, you're kind of emptying the trend。

07, from hostile to safe

Moderator: Attitudinal change in the new Government is an important variable of the cycle. How do you assess the current policy environment

Dan Morehead:It's a huge wind. The previous government took a hostile approach to the block chain, chasing Coinbase and hitting Ripple. And now the government is willing to build the industry. While the pace of legislative advance is always urgent, frankly, the fact that the United States Congress can spend time discussing the topic “Stabilizing the structure of the currency market” suggests a qualitative change in the position of the industry。

With regard to the currency of stability, it is a revolution in stages。The current stabilization currency may not have fully paid interest, but it is only a matter of time. Stable currency is encroaching on the market for bank deposits. The size of the currency is currently approximately $40 billion, while bank deposits are $17 trillion. (As of March 2026, the total market value of the stable currency was approximately $300-32 billion, from multiple data platforms such as DefiLlama and CoinDesk.) In the next 10 years, the stable currency is most likely to take half of the bank deposits, as it is available on the mobile phone 24 hours a day and experience is far better than traditional banks。

Will strategic bitcoin reserves come

Moderator: You are also concerned about digital assets, such as MicroStrategy. Do you think the government will build strategic bitcoin reserves in the future

Dan Morehead:I think this is most likely to happen. The United States already has a digital asset reserve of a certain size, mostly from law enforcement forfeiture. Now they don't sell these assets, and they may even start growing. Countries that are aligned with the United States will follow with strategic considerations, and countries that are opposed to the United States will buy for defensive purposes. This takes time to move forward in the political machinery, but the trend is irreversible。

09. Why Solana

Moderator: Why do you care so much about Solana

Dan Morehead:We have long held Bitcoin, but Bitcoin is focused on value storage and it cannot handle tens of thousands of high-frequency transactions per second. Solana was originally designed to be high-performance, cheaper, faster, suitable for complex applications such as games, high-frequency transactions, etc. There are Google and Facebook on the Internet and several core Layer 1 in the area of block chains. Bitcoin is gold, and Solana could be a digital highway。

10, NASDAQ down 12%, bitcoin down 50%, reasonable

Moderator: NASDAQ fell from a high point of 12.5 per cent and Bitcoin fell 50 per cent. Is this disconnect reasonable

Dan Morehead:I think that's very unreasonable. The current historical high in equity valuation and the extremely low risk premium, while interest rates remain high, means that equities are already very expensive relative to bonds。

THERE ARE ALSO SIGNS OF OVERHEATING IN THE AI AREA AND MANY AI VALUATIONS ARE WELL ABOVE TREND LINES。

Reverse the encrypted currency, it's 50% lower than the long-term trend line. In terms of asset allocation, encrypted currencies are now in an attractive oversale zone. Even if NASDAQ continues to fall in the future, I think that encrypted money will do better in the span of two years。

11, "I can't find anything to derail the process."

Moderator: What's the difference between you now and you in Bear City in 2014, 2018

Dan Morehead:Totally different. In the early days, I did have cold sweats, fearing that the whole experiment would be completely over because of a hacker attack or regulatory pressure. But after the collapse of Mt. Gox, the withdrawals of 85%, the siege, the industry not only failed, but became stronger. It has reached flight speed。

Moderator: Is there anything that can get you to give up completely

Dan Morehead:I had a long list of risks a few years ago, including safe custody, hacker attacks and regulatory uncertainty. But now look back, most of these risks have been addressed. While no one can guarantee that there will be no accident tomorrow, logically I have found no element that would completely derail the process. A globalized monetary system based on smartphones is the logical direction of human society。With 4 billion mobile subscribers globally, the financial inclusion of block chains is far more important than sharing photos in social media。

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