On the morning of April 22, Trump said on the CNBC 'Squawk Box' phone line, "I do not want to prolong the ceasefire. We don't have that much time. I expect to start bombing, because I think it's a better approach."

After a few hours of this sentence, he issued a post on the Truth Social stating that the indefinite ceasefire would be extended until Iran had submitted a proposal to end the negotiations in some way。

On the other hand, Trump's "step" is a request from the Pakistan Army Chief of Staff and Prime Minister. He adds that this decision is also related to the "serious division of the Iranian government"。

EVERYONE WHO KNOWS TRUMP KNOWS IT'S HIS TYPICAL TACO OPERATION。

@BlockBeats: TACO is the abbreviation of "Trump Always Dickens Out" meaning that Trump retreats every time. The term was first created last year by the Financial Times columnist Robert Armstrong, and was later widely used by traders to describe the pattern of Trump ' s extreme threats and subsequent policy reversals。

How did the ceasefire end

This does not seem to be a proactive diplomatic victory, but a passive decision without better options before the deadline。

And that starts with the Islamabad negotiations on April 11th。

Vice President Vance led the American delegation to Pakistan and negotiations with Iran lasted 21 hours. This is the highest level of direct talks between the US and Iran since the Islamic Revolution in 1979. When Vance left, he declared that Iran “has refused to accept American terms”. There is only one American core claim: Iran's unequivocal undertaking not to seek nuclear weapons — not only a commitment not to build a nuclear bomb, but also a commitment not to retain any technological capability that would rapidly achieve nuclear weaponization. This article was not accepted by Iran. Iran’s chief negotiator, the Speaker of Parliament, Kalibaf, said that the United States must first decide whether to win our trust。

On 12 April, Vance made a gesture after he made peace talks with Iran in Islamabad, Pakistan, to board Air Force II. Photo by Jacqueline Martin/Pool via REUTERS/FilePhotoPurchase LicensingRights

Immediately after the breakdown of the negotiations, the United States declared a maritime blockade of the Strait of Hormuz。

The two-week ceasefire framework was established on 8 April and expired on 22 April. On the eve of the expiry of the deadline, the situation deteriorated dramatically: Iran was late in confirming its participation in the second round of negotiations, and the Pakistani Minister of Information publicly stated that “the official response has not yet arrived”. The advance security deployment of the Pakistani side in Islamabad to this end, and the presence of security inspectors around the Selena Hotel in Islamabad — a detail that in itself indicates that the Palestinian side is still awaiting confirmation from Iran。

Vance was scheduled to fly to Islamabad again, but the trip was postponed indefinitely after a series of internal meetings in the White House. The Wall Street Journal was more direct: Trump was discussing in private the complete cancellation of the trip because Iran was unwilling to compromise on nuclear enrichment. The Iranian negotiating team subsequently formally informed the United States, through the Pakistani intermediary, that participation in the negotiations was a waste of time in such circumstances, as the United States was blocking any substantive agreement。

At the same time, Trump faced enormous pressure from within the United States political landscape。

Deutsche Bank has built a “pressure index” that combines inflation expectations and US debt yields to predict the White House’s policy adjustment nodes. Under this framework, when the price of crude oil is close to $95-100 per barrel, the White House’s statement will be significantly softened; when the 10-year US debt yield is close to 4.5 per cent, the real pressure on policy adjustments will come。

THE CURRENT WTI HAS BROKEN $90. IF THE SITUATION ESCALATES AGAIN AFTER THE END OF THE CEASEFIRE, IT IS NOT INCONCEIVABLE THAT THE OIL PRICE BREAKTHROUGH WOULD BE $100. GAS STATION GASOLINE COSTS MORE THAN $4 PER GALLON AND HAS HISTORICALLY BEEN EXTREMELY LETHAL TO AMERICAN RULERS。

Moreover, in mid-May, the Trump project visited China, hoping to appear as a "winner" rather than a "war president". This time window gives Iran more gaming chips and gives Washington a much more relaxed momentum on the issue of deadlines。

The term "extended extension" is more a domestic political gesture than a diplomatic concession to Iran. It gives Trump the space to delay without declaring a failure。

In this state, Trump announced an extension。

The Axios analysis is bloodthirsty: this extension, while avoiding the resumption of war and the massive escalation of the region, is weakening Trump's own bargaining chip. A credible threat of force relies on the truth of the countdown. Each time, TACO is consuming the credibility of the next threat。

The division within Iran

Iran ' s response was divisive, and there was a clear tension between moderates and hardliners。

The tone of Iranian national television is the narrative of victory: Iran is the "winner of the battlefield" and control of the Straits of Hormuz is the most valuable leverage for this war, with Iran agreeing to a moratorium on military fighting, but "the war is not over." At the same time, Iranian national television warns that negotiations are based on the premise that there will be no discussion of any subject that would violate Iran's independence and dignity, including, above all, defence and missile capabilities, nuclear capabilities and technology。

The hard-line language is more straightforward. According to the Adviser to the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament, "the extension of the ceasefire in Trump is meaningless and the failed party is not in control of the clause" and warns that the extension is "to buy time for a raid"。

But Iran also has moderate voices. Iran's Ambassador to the United Nations, Ilawani, stated that the Government had received “some signals” from the United States that it was prepared to end the blockade and that, once it was lifted, “the next round of negotiations would be held in Islamabad”. At the same time, he stressed that the United States maritime blockade itself was a violation of the ceasefire agreement and that lifting it was a prerequisite for new negotiations. When asked how confident he was about the prospects for negotiations, he replied: "We should give the opportunity, and we have hope."

The core paradox has not moved: the United States demands total nuclear abandonment and Iran demands that the blockade be lifted. Both sides are changing space with delays

BTC, WHERE'S THE BACK TOWN

It is quite clear that the prices of bitcoin over the past two weeks have been driven almost exclusively by the geopolitical narrative of the Middle East, not by the macro-level。

LAST FRIDAY, BITCOIN SURGED TO $78,300, HIGH SINCE EARLY FEBRUARY. SUBSEQUENTLY, IRAN DECLARED THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ CLOSED, WITH PRICES FALLING TO US$ 75,000-76,000. ON APRIL 19, THE UNITED STATES FORCES SEIZED THE CARGO VESSEL TOUSKA, WHICH AT ONE POINT FELL BY $74,000. FOLLOWING THE NEWS OF THE 21 APRIL EXTENSION OF THE CEASEFIRE, PRICES REBOUNDED BY $76,000 ON THE SAME DAY, BOOSTING THE ENCRYPTION MARKET AS A WHOLE BY OVER 1 PER CENT AND BRINGING THE TOTAL MARKET VALUE TO $2.55 TRILLION。

Each price node corresponds to a specific incident on the battlefield。

AT THE INSTITUTIONAL LEVEL, DEMAND HAS NOT DISAPPEARED. THE SPOT IN BITCOIN ETF RECORDED A NET INFLOW OF APPROXIMATELY $1.29 BILLION BETWEEN 14 AND 17 APRIL, AND THE WEEK AROUND 10 APRIL REACHED A HIGHER FIGURE OF APPROXIMATELY $1.1 BILLION, AT A POINT THAT COINCIDED WITH THE EXPECTED HIGH LEVEL OF CEASEFIRE BEFORE AND AFTER THE ISLAMABAD TALKS。

BTC Markets Analyst Rachel Lucas judged that "the current resilience of Bitcoin is due not so much to narratives as to market mechanisms. Institutional buyers, especially corporate funds, are making a big effort to raise funds every time they return. This round, the analysts also pointed out, added to the market's interest in the Walsh hearing of the Fed's President's candidate — investors being held captive in the direction of monetary policy。

But the data signals of the internal structure are less optimistic。

After the return of the bitcoin to $75,000, the financial rate for the renewal contract continued to be negative. A negative financial rate means that the market for derivatives is still dominated by empty positions. In other words, spot prices are rising, but the structural forces that do are not keeping up, and the waves are more driven by empty flats than new ones。

Deribit's data confirm this judgment: about $1.5 billion bitcoin drop options are concentrated around $60,000, and $75,000 around $1.3 billion rise options, and two sets of data are stacked together, constituting an ambiguous option structure。

The 10xResearch Research Manager Thielen's judgment matches this signal. He pointed out that the boom had not yet been accompanied by an apparent rise in options, and that the market was inherently pacifying rather than trending。

Tokenize Capital’s Hughes suggested that the increase could subside next month and that there was a risk of further decline in August。

Even less optimistic, CryptoQuant ' s web-based data model shows that there is a downward pressure on the current Bitcoin prices, with the possibility of testing some $70 million in support in the medium term. If the energy on the chain continues to weaken, a deeper echo may touch the $56,000 zone. According to Morgan Stanley strategist Denny Galindo, Bitcoin is currently in the "Autumn" phase of a four-year cycle and winter is approaching。

If the ceasefire continues and there are substantial opening signals in the Strait of Hormuz, some analysts believe that Bitcoin is expected to hit $80,000 by the end of April. But this is a long chain of assumptions: a ceasefire is not broken, the blockade is lifted, negotiations are advanced, global energy supplies are expected to stabilize, and market risk preferences can be opened。

CUSTOMS DUTIES, THREATS TO ALLIES, PRESSURE ON THE FEDERAL RESERVE ALMOST EVERY TIME, TACO APPEARS ON SCHEDULE, AND THE MONEY IS EARNED BY THOSE WHO WAGER REVERSE。

BUT TACO IS NOT A NATURAL PATTERN. IT'S A PREDICTIVE MODEL BASED ON PAST BEHAVIOR. THE NATURE OF THE WAR IN IRAN IS DIFFERENT FROM THAT OF TRADE NEGOTIATIONS. IT INVOLVES MILITARY CASUALTIES, SOVEREIGN DIGNITY, DOMESTIC POLITICAL RED LINES, CONSUMED BY EACH ROUND OF TACO CYCLES, THE ONLY REMAINING ROOM OF MUTUAL TRUST IN THE NEGOTIATIONS BETWEEN THE TWO SIDES, AND MARKET SPACE FOR TACO OPERATIONS. IT ALSO MEANS THAT MAYBE ONE DAY THE TACO WILL COMPLETELY FAIL。