From securities monetization to forecast markets: 2026, worth watching for 7 big encryption dividends
Original title:7 Crystal Lesons and Trends to know before 2026
Original author: 0xJeff, AI investor
Original: Deep tide Techflow
2025 was full of unprecedented upheavals and changes. We welcome a President of the United States who allegedly supports encrypted currency and artificial intelligence. However, the market in 2025 did not usher in the expected cattle market, but instead became the year of the “holocaust” of the entire industry。
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In 2025, most of the country's currency fell by 80-99%
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Bitcoin ' s market value returned to 2019-2020 (over 60 per cent), outperforming most currencies
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THE TRANSACTION PRICE AT THE ETH IS NO DIFFERENT THAN IN 2022
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The market is highly divided
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Despite good news coming from industry (e.g. clearer regulatory frameworksETFApproved, used by enterprisesBlock chain technologyBUT IN 2025, STOCK MARKET PERFORMANCE COMPLETELY CRUSHED THE ENCRYPTION MARKET
Despite suffering and instability, 2025 was still viewed by many as the “mature year” of industry, but it also witnessed the departure of a large number of practitioners and investors。
So, for those who are still in the encryption field, the following are the key elements to understand before 2026:
Let's go deeper
Forecasting markets: multifunctional trading tools
The market is projected to be one of the fastest growing vertical areas in 2025 — with nominal transactions amounting to $3.8 billion per week for the first time — and Polymarket, Kalshi and Opinion becoming the leading platforms in this area。
DESPITE THE CONTINUING DISPUTE AS TO WHETHER THE “PREDICT MARKET IS EQUIVALENT TO GAMBLING”, THE UNITED STATES COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION (CFTC) SEES IT AS AN EVENT CONTRACT OR A BINARY RIGHT BASED ON THE RESULTS OF REAL WORLD EVENTS. CFTC ' S INNOVATIVE AND FRIENDLY STANCE, COMBINED WITH INCREASED MARKET DEMAND FOR INVESTMENT/PROJECTION, CONTRIBUTED TO THE RAPID GROWTH OF PROJECTED MARKET TRANSACTIONS IN 2025。
From the point of view of trading instruments, the forecasting market has shown great flexibility. It can be seen as a more user-experienced option tool (but still lacking in liquidity)。
you can use leverage to trade in any market, opt for a “yes/no” orientation bet, either as a hedge tool (by holding a spot position elsewhere) or through the implementation of a delta neutral strategy (equal distribution of a “yes/no” share in the market) to generate earnings and potential air drop incentives。
Cash guarantee down options and reserve up options
These two options strategies are well suited to investors who wish to manage their investments in a more conservative manner。
Instead of buying or selling money quickly when prices fall, cash flows can be obtained by selling up or down options. If the price reaches a certain target, you can choose to buy or sell your coin at a low price; if the price fails to meet the target, you will recover the principal。
THIS STRATEGY IS ONE OF THE BEST WAYS TO GENERATE A HIGH ANNUALIZED RATE OF RETURN (APR) FOR YOUR BANKNOTE OR STABLE CURRENCY。
The only thing that needs to be noted is that your principal will be locked down for a certain period of time (usually three to five weeks), but you will get a right to a premium (surplus) as soon as you sell an increase or fall。
narrative fatigue + shares vs token = return to fundamentals
The rate of rotation of market narratives has increased significantly, with hot spots that could have lasted for weeks or months in the past and can now be maintained for only a few days at most。
THE ENCRYPTED COMMUNITY (CT) IS MOVING FROM PURSUING NARRATIVES TO FOCUSING ON REAL FUNDAMENTALS (E.G. NUMBER OF USERS, INCOME, GROWTH INDICATORS). MARKETS ARE MORE INCLINED TO ASSESS REAL BUSINESS INDICATORS AND TO CLARIFY THE VALUE TRANSFER RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN BUSINESS AND TOKENS。
However, this year we witnessed too much confusion in the game between equity and tokens, particularly in the area of M& A:
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Pumpfun acquired Padre, but left Padre ' s token holder completely unmoved。After the news of the takeover, the PADRE token fell by 50-80 per cent, triggering a strong community rebound. Pumpfun, in order to calm the grievances of the Padre community, promised to drop PUMP coins in the future in accordance with PADRE ' s pre-acquisition announcement。
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Circe acquired Axelar, but also ignored Axelar ' s token holders。AFTER THE ACQUISITION, THE AXL TOKEN FELL SHARPLY. THIS IS THE LATEST NEWS AND IT IS NOT KNOWN WHAT WILL HAPPEN, BUT THE COMMUNITY IS ALREADY ANGRY (AND RIGHTLY SO)。
The growing debate between equity and currency holders also leads us to a deeper problem
Market governance organizations and ownership tokens
MetaDAO launched a fair, transparent and unmanageable ICO start-up platform characterized by high circulation, relatively low fully diluted valuation (FDV) structures, and no windfall (VC) or private allocation. In addition, mechanisms have been introduced, such as performance-based team unlocking and potential fund recovery functions。
This structure gives currency holders real ownership, control and consistency of interests, effectively addressing issues such as project-side runaways, token smashing, blackboxing and inappropriate acquisitions。
The recent launch of the “STAMP” (a simple token agreement, a market protection mechanism) by Clossium (an independent and accelerated organization of Solana ecology) is an entirely new investment contract designed to integrate private investment financing with open MetadaO ICO, ensuring investor interests and consistency with MetadaO’s chain of governance。
The MetaDAO model gave rise to a new category of “ownership tokens”, which were initiated through the ICO of MetaDAO. Many of the projects on the line performed strongly — for example, Umbra, Omnipair and Avici, which were in strong demand during the financing period and whose tokens were significantly outrun the market in 2025。
Through the MetaDAO model, the importance of token holders has been raised, they have real voice and real ownership of the project. Project income and costs are no longer channelled to equity holders, but directly benefits currency holders。
The trend towards market governance organizations and ownership tokens is likely to continue until 2026 and will be intertwined with the subsequent trends ..
The Rise of Securities Currencyization
Chain liquidity is limited, and market participants ' attention has gradually shifted to real values such as fundamentals, income, buybacks, etc. At the same time, firms have begun to introduce stable currencies, and more and more institutions have invested capital in encryption, while recently, the monetization of securities has become simpler and more feasible than ever, especially for regulated institutions。
On December 11, 2025, important regulatory breakthroughs were made in the field of securities monetization. The United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) issued a “No-Action Letter” to make it clear that it would not take enforcement action against DTCC's subsidiary, the DTC pilot securities monetization scheme. The pilot included the monetization of Russell 1,000 index units, United States Treasury bonds and major ETFs。
DURING THE PILOT PERIOD (FROM THE SECOND HALF OF 2026, FOR A PERIOD OF THREE YEARS), THIS MECHANISM WILL PROVIDE CENTRALIZED MONETIZATION OF COMPLIANCE THROUGH THE DTC, DIRECTING ACTIVITIES TO REGULATED INFRASTRUCTURE RATHER THAN ENTIRELY DECENTRIZED ALTERNATIVES。
This means that from 2026 onwards, we will see more securities monetization projects, which also means that the demand for monetized stocks will increase, accelerating the integration of traditional finance (TradFi) with decentrized finance (DeFi)。
Consumer-grade encryption products and durability contracts become the encryption core
In 2025, consumer-grade encryption products and the Perps became the core hotspot of the encryption industry:
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Pumpfun peaked in 2024-2025
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Virtuals uses a similar model, but incorporates a new AI smart agent narrative
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Zora made a similar attempt in the field of content tokens, supported by Jesse
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Collections, Fantasy Football, forecast market was popular in 2025
These are consumer-oriented products that both make encrypted First Nations (Crypto-Natives) fun and attract non-encrypted users (e.g. market participants) to gain while enjoying。
Encryption itself is a game, and trade is an entertainment. As a result, consumer-grade products that are innovative and well integrated tend to emerge better。
Perps has a similar attraction because it allows users to make precise bets in asset price increases and declines。
IF YOU FOCUS ON KEY INDICATORS FOR PREDICTING MARKETS AND SUSTAINABLE CONTRACTS, YOU'LL FIND THAT THEY ALL REACHED RECORD HIGHS IN 2025. THESE FIGURES SEEM TO BE “SCREAMING” AT THE PRODUCT MARKET CONVERGENCE POINT (PMF) IN THE ENCRYPTION FIELD: THE MARKET IS PROJECTED TO HAVE A NOMINAL VOLUME OF $3.8 BILLION PER WEEK, COMPARED WITH $340 BILLION PER WEEK FOR A LASTING CONTRACT (1.3 TRILLION PER MONTH, A RECORD HIGH)。
This is why people are so keen to participate in platforms such as Hyperliquid, Lighter, Aster, Polymarket and Opinion. Large volumes of activity, large demand and large capital flows directly translate into higher valuations and more air-drop returns。
Consumer-grade encryption products are also full of potential, but in 2025 we have not seen a truly sustainable consumer-grade encryption product. Sportsdotfun (SDF) showed good growth in the early years and is currently engaged in community finance on Legion and Kraken. While future developments in this area are not yet known, the outlook is exciting。
From this, we can learn that if you want to find your advantage in this market, you can either invest in platforms (e.g. forecast markets, sustainable contracts, consumer-grade encryption products) or actively participate in these categories:
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Learn how to trade for eternity
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Forecasting in the forecast market
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Use consumer-level encryption products
Through these practices, you can better understand the market and find your own competitive advantage. Otherwise..
You can be a confidant
Yes, the Wall Street Journal, Silicon Valley, and road tech practitioners are now becoming obsessed with the role of “Storyteller”. Many start-up companies have opened up recruitment for “speakers” positions。
In the field of encryption, this is a long-standing phenomenon. We have Yappers, key opinion leaders (KOL) and narrativeists who have been discussing projects for years and helping to build encrypted communities (even before Kaito introduced the concept of “talking”)。
But now, it seems that the whole world is beginning to realize the importance of having the right narratives, passing the right brands, products and positioning。
However, the role of the narrativeist goes far beyond “talking”. At present, in the area of encryption, many of the words are simply a copy of the paste, so as to “grow a sense of existence” rather than trying to truly learn and understand what they are discussing。
THIS PROVIDES AN OPPORTUNITY FOR THOSE WHO REALLY KNOW THE INDUSTRY, HAVE EXPERTISE, OR ARE CURIOUS TO LEARN — WHETHER IN THE ENCRYPTED COMMUNITY (CT) OR IN THE WIDER FIELD。
Those who are good at narratives can ultimately have a free choice by expanding their brand influence: They may choose to develop independently or be “acqui-hire” for start-ups and projects that match their brand name。
In 2025, we have seen success stories of this dynamic. For example, Kalshi has recruited prominent figures from the encrypted community, while some encryption projects have succeeded in shaping brand names and attracting more users through close partnerships and ambassador schemes (such as sharing badges)。
If you're good at telling stories, then this is your stage
Core summary
The encryption market in 2024-2025 is like playing the "rich man" game
And in 2026, it will be more like a home for financialians in businesses, start-ups, and suits – less of a “rich” game, less of an easy earner, less of a narrative of a “digital rise”。
IN THE FUTURE, MORE ATTENTION WILL BE GIVEN TO FUNDAMENTALS, ALIGNMENT OF INTERESTS, VALUE ACCUMULATION AND LEVERAGE. IF YOU FAIL TO DEVELOP A REAL COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE, EVEN IF YOU ARE AN OG, YOU CAN END UP BEING SOMEONE ELSE'S "TAGGERMAN."。
Your competitive advantage can be any of the following:
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with a clear mind that will not be blinded by delusions
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He's good at telling good stories
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Building quality products that people really need
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Insight trends
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Rational trading, not influenced by emotions。
Hold on and find your own advantage and you'll get your reward。
Thank you so much for reading! If you want to know what I think about some of the projects and what I think more clearly, you can see me on SubstackThe After Hourcolumn。
Disclaimer
This paper is for information and entertainment purposes only. The views expressed are not investment proposals or recommendations. Readers receiving this paper should exercise due diligence before investing, in accordance with their financial position, investment objectives and risk tolerance (not covered herein). This paper does not constitute an offer or invitation to purchase or sell the assets mentioned in the text。
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