Author: Viee, I Biteye Content Team

In the last months of 2025, the atmosphere in Bear City began to spread。

Bitcoin slipped from a high point of $120,000, ETF went into a one-off slot, various currencies split, and the Meme coin, which had triggered emotions, began to go unheeded. Compared to late 2021, there was no sudden regulatory strike, and there seemed to be no serious liquidity crisis, except for the collapse of 1011, but there was still something wrong。

If the World of Encryption in 2025 is a recalibration of real and false values, how about 2026

The article tries to find answers, and perhaps we need to accept the fact that the encryption industry may be entering an era that is no longer driven by unilateral increases or by “casino narratives”。

I. Macro wind warms and bitcoin is still on the wind

Over the past year, price performance and market positioning in bitcoin have changed markedly。

After a record high of $120,000, the movement began to fall back, the shock grew and market sentiment gradually cooled. Unlike the past practice driven by the diaspora, the main thrust of this round is the institutional funds behind ETF. CryptoQuant's analyst, Axel Adler Jr. pointed out last month that the average US ETF holding cost was $79,000, and many people used it as part of the price support. As a result, the current movement of Bitcoin is becoming more and more like a highly volatile institutional asset, with a gold-like anti-inflation orientation on the one hand, and a technology unit on the other, which is influenced by macro-emotional and risk preferences and displays beta properties on the other。

IN A MORE MACRO-LEVEL CONTEXT, 2025 WAS A YEAR OF GLOBAL RISK ASSET SENTIMENT. AI IS THE LARGEST LEAD, THE US SHARES ARE CONSTANTLY INNOVATIVE, THE FED ANNOUNCED THREE INTEREST-RATE CUTS IN DECEMBER, AND THE MARKET IS BACK INTO THE EXPECTED WARMING OF LIQUIDITY. FOMC ' S YEAR-END ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS INDICATE THAT GDP GROWTH IN THE UNITED STATES IN 2026 IS ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM 1.8 PER CENT TO 2.2 PER CENT - 2.5 PER CENT. IT IS GENERALLY EXPECTED THAT EASING WILL CONTINUE NEXT YEAR, WHICH MAY BE BENEFICIAL FOR ASSETS SUCH AS TTC。

But markets are not without risks. If the economy suddenly weakens in 2026, or inflation rebounds unexpectedly, the risk assets may still face significant adjustments。

II. Regulatory transition: US, Hong Kong policy developments

Another important change in 2025 was the formal framework for regulation。

In the United States, two key bills landed. The first is the stabilization currency bill (GENIUS Act), which clarifies the definition of the currency, the requirements for reserves, the threshold for issuing qualifications, and provides a compliance path for the mainstream stabilizer. The bill was signed into law by the President in July 2025 and came into force 18 months after its signature or 120 days after the final rules were issued by the regulatory body. The second is the Encrypted Asset Market Structure Act (CLARITY Act), which systematically delineates the boundaries between “securities-type tokens” (supervised by SEC) and “commodity-type coins” (supervised by CTC) and proposes hierarchical regulation. The bill will be submitted to the Senate in January for consideration, after which the President may be required to sign, with the date of entry into force to be determined. At the same time, the SEC speeds up the opening of channels for institutional products through more encrypted ETFs。

In Hong Kong, however, the pace of regulation is also increasing. In 2025, the Superintendency of the Pension Fund introduced a system for the control of issuers of stable currencies, which explicitly requires that all port systems must be licensed. This means that future issuance of the dollar and the renminbi in Hong Kong requires certain capital and compliance requirements. In addition, HashKey has been listed on the Hong Kong Exchange as the first compliance platform in the Hong Kong IPO with an encrypted core business。

Overall, the regulatory trend in the United States and Hong Kong has been both to curb illegal speculation and to open legal channels of business and drive the industry towards institutionalization and compliance。

III. STRENGTHENING COSTS, PROMOTING MARKETS, STRENGTHENING US EQUIPMENT

Over the past few years, the most stable growth curve in the encryption industry has actually been a stable currency。

BY 2025, GLOBAL STABILITY CURRENCY ISSUANCE HAD EXCEEDED $300 BILLION, OF WHICH THE SUM OF USDT AND USDC ACCOUNTED FOR MORE THAN 80 PER CENT, AND THE STABILIZATION CURRENCY WAS BECOMING PART OF A GLOBAL PAYMENT NETWORK, WHETHER USDT OR USDC, WHOSE USE HAD INFILTRATED DAILY BUSINESSES AND CROSS-BORDER SETTLEMENTS。

In 2026, stable currencies are likely to be closer to the real world than ever before, as traditional giants like Visa, Stripe, PayPal, are already settled in stable currencies. Stripe, for example, has supported business buy-in in stable currency, and already has a real downside service。

source: a16 z

In addition, with clear regulations, it is expected that the GDR (endorsement of high-quality assets) and regional stabilization currencies will emerge, such as the Digital Currency Bridge project implemented by Japan and the EU。

Another area of concern is forecasting markets。

In the first place, the forecast market for such products was perceived by most to be too small or non-compliant. But now it has begun to become a combination of “chain-down” and “pricing tool” under the theme of American elections, sports competitions, economic data, etc。

Kalshi, for example, has obtained official futures license plates from the United States CFTC, which can be legally connected to forecasted transactions related to macroeconomic data, and is now valued at $11 billion. Polymarket, on the subject of American elections, entertainment events, etc., has become a place for a large number of users to place their bets and their affections。

IN 2026, IT WAS PREDICTED THAT MARKETS MIGHT EMERGE FROM A PURELY SPECULATIVE CIRCLE, SUCH AS USERS VOTING WITH MONEY TO EXPRESS THEIR JUDGMENT ABOUT THE PROBABILITY OF AN OUTCOME. THIS FORM OF COLLECTIVE WISDOM PRICING IS LIKELY TO BE USED BY THE MEDIA, RESEARCH INSTITUTIONS AND EVEN TRADING STRATEGIES. IN ADDITION, AI OPENS UP NEW POSSIBILITIES FOR PREDICTING MARKETS, SO THAT THEY CAN NO LONGER RELY ON PEOPLE TO BET, BUT CAN AUTOMATICALLY ANALYSE DATA, PLACE THEIR OWN BILLS OR EVEN GENERATE NEW ONES. THIS WILL MAKE THE FORECAST MARKET MORE RESPONSIVE AND INTELLIGENT AND WILL GRADUALLY BECOME A TOOL TO JUDGE RISKS AND TRENDS, RATHER THAN JUST BETS AND LOSERS。

The last thing that cannot be overlooked is the development of the American stock chain。

In short, the encryption industry is now trading not only encrypted assets, but also moving real world assets. Securitize, for example, plans for a stock trading platform on the first fully compliant chain of 2026, where users buy coins that correspond to real corporate shares, with voting rights and dividends。

IV. EMERGING TERMS ON ENTERPRISE: A new direction for possible take-off in 2026

at the same time, there are a number of seemingly marginal directions that may be of interest

https://a16zcrypto.com/poss/article/big-ideas-things-exacted-about-crypto-2026/

source: a16 z

1. AI STATUS OF AGENT

AS AI'S INTELLIGENCE AGENCIES BEGIN TO BE INVOLVED IN TRANSACTIONS, BROWSING, TABLING AND EVEN INTERACTING WITH SMART CONTRACTS, A KEY ISSUE IS BEING PUT ON THE TABLE, THAT IS, HOW DO THESE NON-HUMAN IDENTITIES PROVE “WHO THEY ARE”

the idea of “Know Your Agent” (KYA) proposed by a16 z is precisely to address this problem. On the chain, for any agent to initiate a transaction, there must be clear authority and attribution, which will require an encrypted signed certificate. In 2026, this could become a front-line threshold for a chain of AI large-scale deployments。

2. x 402 type agreements and micropayments

a16 z predicts that we will enter an era of "Automated Settlement + Programming Payment" in the course of the extensive trading of data, calculatorization and access to interfaces by AI Agents。

It is no longer necessary to pay manually, to identify needs between AI Agencies and automatically realize payments, which is the real problem that agreements like this are addressing. In 2026, their sense of presence will grow。

3. The privacy chain will receive more attention

a16 z points to a key trend: privacy will be the core moat of the future public chain as compared to the convergence of performance. in the past, there were concerns that the privacy chain was detrimental to regulation and lacked transparency. but now the problem is, in turn, that operational data are too sensitive and that compliance agencies are afraid to chain up without privacy protection. and that's why the defaults are linked to the chain of privacy protection and become attractive. once these chains are used, the data will not be easily disclosed, the costs of migration will be higher, and new user viscos will naturally emerge, which is in fact a network effect。

4. Staked Media

AI, in the era of mass content generation, determines whether a statement is true, not just by whom, but by whether or not it is cost. Thus, a16 z proposes a new media model in which content creators do not just speak, but rather “commit” positions through lockouts, forecast markets, NFT vouchers, etc。

FOR EXAMPLE, YOU SEND A VIEW OF THE ETH, AND YOU SIMULTANEOUSLY LOCK UP THE ETH YOU HOLD AS COLLATERAL; YOU MAKE AN ELECTION FORECAST AND YOU PLACE YOURSELF IN THE CHAIN. THESE PUBLIC INTERESTS WILL BE TIED IN SO THAT THE CONTENT IS NO LONGER LIP SERVICE. IF IT RUNS, THE FUTURE MAY BECOME A NEW FEATURE OF THE CHAIN。

Of course, a16 z presents more than these directions. This paper highlights four of these trends, which we consider to be more representative, and other directions that also deserve attention, such as: stabilization currency access upgrades, RWA encryption, stabilization currency-led upgrading of bank accounts, diversification of wealth management, AI research assistant emergence, AI proxy real-time content ration mechanism, decentrization of quantum-resistant communications, privacy as services become infrastructure, DeFi security paradigm shift, forecasting market smartness, certifiable cloud computing, value product market convergence (PMF), and encryption bill will release more potential for block chains。

interested readers may refer to the original report a16 z for further information。

V. The encryption industry is moving out of the inner circle

The early growth of the encryption industry, mostly based on a self-hidden system, where coins, home leavers and airdrops are trying to attract more people in circles to stay, is gradually breaking the closed circle。

From Polymarket to USDT to USDC's cross-border applications, we see an increasing number of people who are not web3 users using block chain tools. Small traders on the streets of Lagos do not necessarily understand the wallet structure, but they know that using USDT is much faster than making money from banks, and in high-inflation countries, there is an influx of depositors into USDC to avoid risk than speculation. One of the most intuitive changes is in the context of payments in developing countries, such as the Philippine exchange Coins.ph, which works with Circle to open low-cost USDC remittance channels。

The trend behind this suggests that encryption technologies are embedding real scenarios such as cross-border payments, remittance channels, etc. The real future of encryption should perhaps be about how technology can solve real problems and allow more ordinary people to use the chain unwittingly。

THE ENCRYPTION INDUSTRY IN THE KOL PERSPECTIVE

The most recent discussion on “is it worth spending years in the encryption industry” is essentially a collective reset of the industry。

The Castle Island Ventures Partner, Nic Carter @nic_carter, continued his reflection on whether to waste eight years in encryption, stating that it was true that there was a significant PMF (product market convergence), with only bitcoin, stable currency, DEX, forecast market. He chose to maintain pragmatic idealism, accepting bubbles and fanaticism as part of the path, not all。

Dragonfly's partner Haseeb @hosseeb is even more blunt, pointing out that the problem is not the existence of casinos, but the real transformation of the industry is missed by looking at the beauty of casinos. He believes that encrypted money is a better vehicle of finance, which will forever change the nature of the money and hope that the industry will remain patient: “It also took 50 years for the industrial revolution to change productivity, and we only 15 years.”

The summary of the founder of XHunt & Biteye @DeFiTeddy2020 is also extremely true, and it seems to him that the encryption industry can quickly expose the financial nature, face zeroing of the project, decoupling the price from the basics, even insider, manipulating, harvesting. It is not a hotbed of idealism, but a market in which participants are constantly educated with real money and silver, and very hard-working。

In the future direction of the industry, KOL Currency Circle Women Buddha @xinctnq provides a long-term, long-term perspective, and encryption is really trying to solve the long-term problems of monetary systems, contract enforcement, digital property rights, capital market efficiency and financial inclusion. Even though the results are remote and rough, they are worth constantly trying。

In addition, the trader & the analyst @CryptoPainter explains a more market-oriented structure, and the encrypted market repeats its usual operating mechanisms, “value investment” - “confident investment” - “emotional speculation” - “total disappointment” - and then restarts. It's been in 2018, 2022, and it's bound to come back. Gamblers and casinos are not unusual, but part of the bubble-consuming and market self-regulation。

The position of Figment Capital member Dougie DeLuca @Dougie DeLuca is like a phase-by-stage summary, stating that “Crypto is dead” does not mean that prices are zero and blocks are no longer functioning, but that “Crypto is dying as a closed industry,” and that the real success should be to integrate Crypto technology into ordinary people’s daily lives。

From a more institutional point of view, KOL & Researcher Blue Fox @lanhubiji mentioned that when older users began to evacuate, new people from traditional financial backgrounds were entering. In their perception, encryption is a long-term trend that has entered a standardized, interoperability, scaleed path. Three years later, an entirely new era of chain finance, the era of Wall Street, will gradually show itself。

The judgement of LD Capital founder, Irihua @Jackyi _ld, is closer to the current cycle level, pointing out that the recent downswing in encryption is more of a phased resonance between liquidity and macro-events, which are now digesting and continuing to look after the follow-up as interest-reduction expectations and encryption policies improve。

At a more macrolevel level of regulation and industry structure, the head of the Hashkey group, who was particularly systematic, suggested three main trends for the future:

First, the global trend in encryption regulation is shifting from “voluntary acceptance” to “coercive regulation”, with Governments gradually clearing off-shore grey areas and encryption transactions towards licensing. In Hong Kong, for example, since June 2023, all unlicensed transactions have required exit from the market。

SECOND, ENCRYPTION IS NO LONGER A PRIMARY ASSET SUCH AS BTC, ETH, AND MORE TRADITIONAL FINANCIAL ASSETS ARE MOVING INTO THE CHAIN THROUGH MONETIZATION, CREATING A NEW SECURITIZATION MARKET FOR REGULATORY COMPLIANCE。

Thirdly, from "under" to "on" the chain, he judged that the second half of 2026 might be the key node of "on" Wall Street。

Concluding remarks

2026, how's encryption

If what is expected is a “floating currency”, then the answer may not be。

But the answer may be yes if the industry is moving in a more realistic and useful direction。

From encrypted ETF to stable currency payments, from chained national debt to forecast market, from chain Agent to decentrized AI, one thing:

THE ENCRYPTION INDUSTRY MAY BEGIN TO FALL IN THE DIRECTION OF A MORE REALISTIC WORLD, AND MAY INCREASINGLY RESONATE WITH STOCK MARKETS, MACRO-LIQUIDITY, POLICY EXPECTATIONS, AND EVEN AI CYCLES。