Powell stayed up to 98% of the odds, and Trump's "dismissal" was just high

Original Odaily Daily Planet@OdailyChinaI'm not sure

Author |Golem@web3 golemI'm not sure

Trump is a little bit of an "inner distressing" smell: an external struggle with Iran and an internal hysteria with Federal Reserve Chairman Powell。

Both of them had a hard time seeing each other. Powell had failed to comply with Trump's wishes on several previous occasions, and Trump had repeatedly expressed his intention to fire Powell. In the first place, if only for one more time, the problem would soon disappear: The term of the Federal Reserve Chairman of Powell will expire on 15 May 2026. Although he could still stay as a member of the Council until 2028, as long as Kevin Walsh, the heart of Trump Chin, took over, the new President had the right to speak, and the era of debauchery seemed imminent。

However, the accident came。Odaily SeerMonitoring shows that Polymarket on Powell's probability of leaving the Fed's Chairman after his term of office has dropped to 2 per centPowell is likely to continue to serve as the Interim Chairman of the Fed after May 15th。

As early as March 19, Powell indicated that if his successor was not confirmed before the end of his term (15 May), he would continue to assume the position of Chairman of the Federal Reserve, while further indicating that as long as the investigation against him by the Department of Justice was not completed(Odaily note: the investigation concerned whether Powell lied to Congress about the $2.5 billion renovation of the Federal Reserve Building)He won't leave the Federal Reserve Board。

So if Trump can get rid of Powell, it's up to the Senate to approve Kevin Walsh. Although the forecast market has already given pricing, the real answer will not be known until April 21st (second week)。

Key Node: Can the Federal Reserve nomination on April 21st be confirmed by the Senate

Kevin Walsh is the next Federal Reserve Chairman nominated by Trump, but he will eventually be on schedule and will need to be considered by the United States Senate, which has the power to reject Kevin Walsh's nomination as Fed Chairman. On 21 April, Walsh will first attend the Senate Banking Commission hearing, and the market is concerned that Walsh could not even pass confirmation by the Commission。

The core figures blocking the appointment of Walsh were Republicans from North Carolina, members of the Banking Commission, Thom Tillis。He argued that the Ministry of Justice had not yet concluded its investigation into Powell, which he had publicly stated would prevent Walsh ' s nomination from being submitted to the Senate for a plenary vote before it was terminated。Thom Tillis had that influence because, although the Republicans were in the majority of the Senate Banking Committee of 13 to 11, Josh's nomination could be stalled as long as Thom Tillis voted against it。

The Ministry of Justice’s investigation of Powell dates back to July 2025, when Trump visited the site of the renovation of the Federal Reserve Building and publicly questioned its budget. As a result, in January 2026, the Department of Justice officially opened an investigation into the cost of renovating the Federal Reserve Building. The investigation was a political plot by Trump to tarnish Powell ' s public image and increase pressure on the Fed。

Maybe Trump didn't think he was going to suffer. Trump, however, did not intend to terminate the investigation of Powell in order to clear out the obstacles to Walsh's appointment, saying in an interview with Fox Business Channel on April 15, that while Thom Tillis's objection would delay Walsh's confirmation of appointment, he did not intend to terminate the investigation, stating, frankly, “Don't you think we need to find out what happened there?”

Let us take a step back to see that, even without such an investigation, it may be difficult for Walsh to obtain the 51 Senate votes required for confirmation of appointment. Because of the current geopolitical and economic situation, Walsh is likely to face questions in the hearings about the Fed ' s independence and interest rate policy. If the bottlenecks in energy and large commodities persist as a result of the war, the focus of the Fed should be on higher rather than lower interest rates。

This forces Walsh to choose his own position, either to consistently support Trump, but to reduce the likelihood of his appointment being confirmed; or to defend the Fed’s current watch position, but to provoke the President。

But no matter how Walsh chooses, there are not many windows left for him:The hearing is scheduled for April 21, which means that, until the end of Powell ' s term of office, the Senate has only 24 days to confirm Walsh ' s nomination and to vote; in these 24 days, the Senate is scheduled to meet for only 13 days。

Tramp and Powell standoff

So, as long as Walsh is prevented from hearing on April 21st, Powell has a great chance of remaining the Fed’s pro tempore chairman after his term expires on May 15。

In the absence of confirmation of his successor, there was a precedent for the current President to continue to lead the Fed as “Temporary Chairman”. During President Clinton's tenure, Alan Greenspan, then Chairman of the Federal Reserve, continued to lead the Federal Reserve as an interim President for more than three months after his term of office, as his successor's confirmation process was not completed; Powell also served as interim Chairman for about three months, pending confirmation by the Senate in 2022。

This mechanism is also legally based in the United States, where the Federal Reserve Act, which regulates the United States Federal Reserve, provides that members of the Board may remain in office until their successors are appointed。

In the face of this situation, Trump would not stand by. In an interview with Fox Business Channel on April 15, he said:If Powell doesn't leave on time, he'll be firedNor will the investigation of him be abandoned。

However, this could be just a verbal threatI don't know. Because Trump has not yet revealed a strategy to fire Powell, some conservatives believe that Trump has the right to appoint a Federal Reserve member he himself nominated. – Milan, Bowman, or Waller, for example, temporarily on behalf of Walsh, rather than Powell, pending confirmation, on the basis of a memorandum drawn up during the Carter administration, which indicated that the President could designate an acting President if his nominees were not confirmed in time。

However, the Fed's approach to this memorandum is not yet known. Moreover, the memorandum could not ultimately serve as a legal basis, so there was little legal basis for Trump to appoint a person other than Powell as interim President。

if trump fired powell under normal procedures, the success rate would not be significant. according to united states law, trump's dismissal of powell does not require confirmation in congress, but it cannot be dismissed outright without reason. it requires “for cause”, that is, legal justification, and not simply policy disagreement. whether or not the grounds for dismissal are justified must ultimately be determined by the court。

Under the present circumstances, the only reason why Trump fired Powell was for Powell to lie or corrupt the $2.5 billion renovation of the Federal Reserve Building. However, according to the Washington Post of the United States on March 25, a senior deputy to the United States Department of Justice, Jenny Piro, admitted at a closed hearing this month that the Department of Justice had no evidence of misconduct in its criminal investigation of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell’s cost of renovating the Federal Reserve Building。

In other words, the investigation into Powell has not progressed in substance。Thus, if Trump did dismiss Powell, the latter would certainly have challenged the appeal, and in the absence of sufficient evidence, the court ' s decision would presumably have been on Powell ' s side。

For capital-market investors, however, there is little good news about the delay in Swosh’s arrival and Powell’s control of the Fed for a few more months. Because the market clearly prefers Walsh, who is likely to release more interest-rate signals when he comes to the table, to Powell, who is always talking about “watching,” and Walsh’s own intimate encryption stance, which is more likely to give new imagination to the encryption market。