Summary

•The market in recent weeks has been driven by a combination of a de-escalation of the ceasefire, a fall in inflation and policy stability, and a sharp fall in oil pricesVIXBack down, risk's upBTCMove Up6.810,000– 7.3$ million。

•This is the first time that the government has been able to provide financial support to the countryBTC ETFNet one-week inflows approximately8.33The US$ billion is at a new highETH ETFThe net inflow is recorded simultaneously and the buyout is re-dominant。

•The trading structure has shifted to macro-high-volatile asset and head platform, concentrating on energy varieties such as crude oilDEXEnd ReturnUniswapHigh mobility platforms。

•Stable currency versusDeFiThere are structural repairsUSDCIt became the main increment, giving priority to the return of capital to the front-headed pledge agreement and the main chain lending market。

•The agreement revenue reflects a return to the infrastructure layer, a strong trading and clearing-type agreement, and a fall in the front-end entrance and flow distribution heat。

•Derivatives markets are characterized by empty, but price deviations, with negative but higher financial rates, and crowding energy; options shift to short-end games and sales strategies。

1.Market Focus Interpretation

The two-week ceasefire agreement between the United States, Iran and Israel over the past week has brought about a welcome de-escalation in this conflict that has shaken the global market. After last week ' s ceasefire was announced, there was a strong rebound in the market, stock and bond prices rose and oil prices fell14%I don't knowVIXThe index fell19.23I don't knowThreeFirst collection price since the beginning of the month was lower20I don't know。

In addition, global financial markets, especially in the area of encrypted currency, have received macroeconomic data and informationFedThe expected significant impact of the policy。FourMonth10I don't knowCPIThe data show that inflationary pressure is lower than expected, which has somewhat eased the market. YeahFedThe concern that a more aggressive austerity policy would be adopted was often seen as beneficial to risk assets. The Federal Open Market Commission was also announced last weekFOMC) Proceedings, market projectionsFourThe probability of maintaining the current interest rate for the month is high98.4%I don't know. It's a certain height“..Don't moveIt's not the sameA stable policy environment for markets is expected to reduce short-term uncertainty。

The overall market risk preference rose significantly as a result of both inflationary pressures and policy expectations of stability. Institutional investors still have a strong interest in encrypted currency, with bitcoin availableETFSustained inflows provide a solid base for the market. Together, these macro factors have laid the foundations for the movement of Bitcoin and the Etherfrog over the past week, allowing them to rebound quickly after a brief reversal。

Over the past two weeks, bitcoin prices have moved up from6.3ThousandSevenUS$ 000 extended to6.8Thousand7.3US$ million7.3The tens of thousands of dollars of resistance remains a critical level of attention. Should the reopening of the port of Hormuz be confirmed, it could become a catalyst to break that resistance position. And down, bitcoin is6.8Thousand6.9There have been many instances of support in the vicinity of US$ 10,000, but each attempt has led to a narrow support position. Encrypted currencies already reflect long-term conflict expectations and currently support nearby transactions between regions, which means that there is room for an increase in any positive accident or mitigating factor, and further deterioration has been largely absorbed by the market。

2.Liquidity analysis

2.1BTC ETFThe biggest positive weeks in months

Last weekBTC ETFThe situation in Japan has been rockedFourMonthSixNet daily inflows471.4MUnited States dollarsTwoThe largest single-day inflow since the end of the month was reversed by sharp warming of the following two trading days due to geopolitical risks-$159.1Mand- $93.9MNet outflow。BTC ETFNet inflows per week833.2MDollars, EtherETFNet weekly inflows187.0MUnited States dollars. From a horizontal comparison, last weekBTC ETFFlows compared with the previous week22.3MThe net inflow of the United States dollar) showed an extremely significant improvement, with the largest positive weeks in months, and a rapid switch in the overall mood between risk avoidance and bottom-cutting, which eventually dominated many。

BTC ETFTop net flow products:

1.IBITI'm sorryBlackrockNet weekly inflows612.1MUnited States dollars

2.FBTI'm sorryFidelityNet weekly inflows151.7MUnited States dollars

ETH ETFTop net flow products:

1.ETHAI'm sorryBlackrockNet weekly inflows168.3MUnited States dollars

2.ETHBI'm sorryBlackrockPledgeETH ETFNet weekly inflows66.0MUnited States dollars

FourMonthSixOn a daily basis, the institutional buy-in has been built in opposition to geopolitical uncertainty, boosting an over-anticipated influx. However, withFourMonthSevenThe collapse of the negotiations and the increased risk of closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the rapid spread of risk avoidance led to two consecutive days of financial flightI don't knowThis is a mechanical reduction operation that is exposed to the risk of sudden-onset war, rather than long-term empty signals。FourMonth8In the evening, President Trump announced a two-week ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iraq, a sharp fall in the price of crude oil, a sharp drop in liquidity concerns and a retaliatory return to institutional purchases. In additionFourMonth10Published dailyThreeMonthCPIAccording to the data, although nominal inflation was driven by energy3.3%but coreCPIRatio2.6 per centLower than expected, suggesting that core inflation remains moderate, further bolstering the rebound of risk assetsETFIt's coming out"We'll speed up the inflow when we're out"is the characteristic。

2.2TradFiLiquidity

Almost a weekDEXEndTradFiPersistent transactions exhibit significant structural fragmentation, with a clear focus on energy-type assets. In terms of crude oilWTIThe large increase in the share of crude oil as a dominant trade class reflects the fact that the market is concentrating on directional gaming in the most volatile assets at the macro level in the context of increased geo-risk and oil price volatility, while Brent ' s share of crude oil is also rising significantly, further reinforcing the dominance of the energy plate. By contrast, the share of traditional risk avoidance assets, such as gold and silver, has declined, indicating a shift from defensive configuration to more flexible trading targets; equity indicators are as follows:XYZ100with unitNVDAThe ratio is medium and more complementary. In generalDEX TradFiThe structure of the transaction has never been the same“..Precious metals leadIt's not the sameSwitch to“..Energy-drivenIt's not the sameThis reflects a shift in the logic of market transactions from risk avoidance configurations to high volatility around macro variables, a trend that is consistent with the context of the migration of funds from the chain to high-frequency trading links。

CEX TradFiThe total turnover of the contract continues to shake between high levels and shows up“..Structure concentration+Fluid ZoomIt's not the sameis the characteristic. Specifically, trade volumes continue to be overwhelmingly dominated by metal-like assets, especially gold-related varieties that continue to attract financial participation and become the main source of trade against the background of recurrent macro-uncertainty and inflation expectations; at the same time, commodity groups, especially energy, also experience phased discharges within weeks, reflecting increased market demand for crude oil and macro-incident transactions. At the rhythm, the volume of transactions during the week is significantly amplified, corresponding to macro-data and geo-events that catalysed, and, although then reversed, the overall level was higher than in the previous period, indicating that the financial activity remained high. It's not like it's a bad ideaTradFiTransactions are being progressively expanded from a single hedge asset to“..Gold+crude oil+IndexIt's not the sameThe multi-assets linkage framework reflects a shift from a configuration to a strategic transaction centred on macro-variency。

Almost a weekCEX TradFiFurther expansion of asset classes, three mainstreamCEXYesTradFiCategory of assets (statistics only)TradFiandCFCDTotal, without dilatory contracts)802Increase to885Ring growth10.3%I don't know. The most significant increase in metals is due to:23Increase in expenditure to29Round-up growth26.1%;the bulk increase ranked second, by39Increase in expenditure to46Round-up growth17.9%I don't know。

We chooseTradFiMost tradedXAUT, to the depth of its order book (DeltaAnalysis. In the past weekXAUTThe order book depth is shown“..Weakness, strong mobility, gradual recoveryIt's not the sameis the characteristic。FourMonth8I'm sorryXAUTPrice rebounds fastDeltaThere has been a marked increase in the volume of purchases and an increase in the depth phase, indicating that funds are beginning to raise prices and provide liquidity above. And then..FourMonth9DayFourMonth12During the period, although the price remained high, the order book reverted to negativeDeltaIn the main, it shows that the upper push still exists and that there is some divergence in the market. It's worth noting that the weekend is on courseDeltaThe resurgence of the boom and the accompanying rise in prices are indicative of a return to the liquidity of the buyout and the recovery of market sentiment. In generalXAUTThe deep structure reflects the fact that, against the background of the upward trend in gold prices, funds have undergone a process ranging from defensive withdrawal to re-programming, with marginal improvements in liquidity in the short term, but there is still some overstretched highs that require attention to the sustainability of subsequent purchases。

3.Data Insight on Chain

3.1DEXThe trade's going backEVMHead platformUniswapBack to the top

DEXTop of the trade roll backUniswapDone in a week138.5US$ billionPancakeSwapFollow me103.3Billion dollars. This is not the casePancakeSwapIt's coming backUniswapThere has been a significant increase in the flow of funds back to more liquid and more sophisticated main platforms. In additionAerodromeandBisonfiFor the representativeBaseAnd some of the new and emerging scenes have taken over some of the active funds; on the other hand, the new, the new, the new, the new, the new, the new, the new, the new, the new, the new, the new, the new, the new, the new, the new, the new, and the new, the new, the new, the new, the new, the new, the new, the new, the new, the new, the new, the new, the new, the new, the new, the new, the new, and the new, the new, the new, the new, the new, the new, the new, and the new, the new, the new, the new, the new, the new, the new, the new, the new, the new, the new, the new, the new, the new, the new, the new, the new, and the new, the new, the new, the new, the new, the new, and the new, the new, the new, the new, the new, the new, and the new, the newWhirlpoolI don't knowRaydiumI don't knowHumidifiIt's all coming backSolanaInternal transactions have not resulted in full proliferation。

3.2The price of the money is still highUSDCIt's the main incremental source

The stabilization plate did not fluctuate sharply this week, and the whole was restructured in high-level areas。USDTCompared with the previous week, the bottom dollar remained stable。USDCBy7,986.8Billion dollars rises back to8,104.9The United States dollar, the most visible incremental source this week, represents a re-enrichment of mainstream dollar assets. On the other sideUSDSI don't knowUSDeI don't knowDAII don't knowGHOThere was a small decline, and the decentralised stabilizer did not work together this week. In terms of marginal changesUSDGandPYUSDThere has been a double upturn, and new diversions of funds continue to occur within the payment type and the newly issued stable currency。

3.3The mobile nature of the city is being restoredETHandSOLTwo main lines synchronized to lift the silo

Most of this week's palleting agreements of a mobile nature retreated before they were recovered。ETHOn the sideLidoBack to Super210US$ billionRocket PoolGet back on your feet13Billions of dollars, the lead agreement is stronger as a whole。SOLIn the same direction, there is repairSanctum Validator LSTsRaise to11.3US$ billionJitoand"Jupiter Staked SOL."There was also a marked rise. This week is a round of unified repairs following a risk-heating preference, funded first by a head agreement slot. In the meantimeLidoAbout a month agoEarthHI don't knowEarthusdandfirst-loss protectionProduct advancement also continues to refine the hierarchy of benefits and risks, and such more institutionalized tools can help boost the willingness to return large financial flows。

3.4AaveThe scale of the loan goes upMantleI don't knowPlasmaTogether

AaveLending scale up to approximately176.9$1 million, higher than the previous week172.5Billion dollars. Of whichEtheleumMain market by132.7$1 billion to135.7Billions of dollars, the core force of pulling the disk. In the meantimePlasmaFrom16.6Increase in US$ billion to17.1US$ billionMantleBy5.9$1 billion to6.4US$ billionBaseandArbitrumOn your feet5.17The demand for multi-chain lending is warming at the same time. This is not the caseAvalancheI don't knowBNB ChainI don't knowPolygonWhile secondary markets have not changed significantly, new financing needs remain concentrated on the most liquid and transaction-efficient main lines。

3.5AaveThe money rate is dividedUSDCTake it easyUSDTandWETHInterest Rate Up

AaveThe three categories of core assets did not change in the same direction。USDCAverage floating borrowingAPRBy3.51 per centDown to3.42 per cent; andUSDTby3.10 per centRaise to3.22%I don't knowWETHFrom2.23 per centRaise To2.29 per centBorrowing costs are beginning to tilt towards these two types of assets. This portfolio usually corresponds to a more explicit trading situation, where the size of total lending, while growing, does not continue to focus on new financing needsUSDCIt's going back in partUSDTWorking capitalETHSilo management. If follow-upAave V4Interest rate differentials between different assets are likely to be further amplified by the real implementation of risk segregation and cross-market paths, a trend that is already visible in the early stages of the week。

 

3.6The agreement revenue returns to the trade infrastructure rotational rhythmHyperliquidThe rebound is clear

There were no abnormal peaks this week on the agreed income block。TetherandCircleThe two continue to be in the top two, and the issue end of the stable currency remains the strongest chassis in the current encrypted revenue system. In terms of trade agreementsHyperliquidBy1,123.3US$ 000 to1,367.7US$ millionTitan BuilderFrom55.8Ten million dollars jump to143.8US$ millionAerodromeAlso by111.3Increase in $ million to196.0In millions of United States dollars, financial and transaction flows are being regrouped into more efficient infrastructure。

It's not thatPhantomBy197.6A million dollars back133.2US$ millionJupiterFrom154.1$ million down to92.8The front-end flow entrance and the heat level of the distribution layer fell in the amount of US$ 1.0 million。AaveIncome rises to144.1The United States dollar, although less flexible, is relatively stable and the profitability of the lending agreement is still significantly better this week than the high-key platform. Overall, the signals from the income stream are clearer and the market is not out of business, except for the return of funds to more efficient transactional, liquidation capacity and a more stable quality of cash flows。

I'm sorry.Derivative tracking

4.1 BTCThe financial rates were in deep decline, but prices were strong, and the holding stock quickly recovered to its height

The last weekBTCOverall fund rates remain in negative range andFourMonth13Late- and post-day stage extreme negative value (minimum close)-0.015This shows that the market for sustainable contracts is characterized by a marked improvement in the level of empty sentiment and overcrowding. But at the same time, the spot price was the same69K♪ Back to the road ♪74KAbove, a typical structure of deviations from higher prices with negative financial rates. This structure usually means that there's a potential for markets to be under the pressure of rising prices while passive payments are madei don't know, short squeezekinetic energy. Overall, the current market is in a phase dominated by a mirage but driven by a spot or structural buyout, and in the short term it is easy to trigger a headback and acceleration in volatility。

BTCThe whole market's open22.5BQuick up near to25.3BLeft or right and rebound with price$74KAbove, leveraged funds are clearly returning to the market. It's worth noting that at one pointFourMonthElevenDays appearOIQuick downshow (like a concentrated silo or crowding out), followed by quick repair and new heights, this structure of deleveraging before leveraging usually means that when vulnerable silos are cleaned, new trends in funding are brought in. Combined with continuing negative financial rates, currentOIThe upturn may be driven by empty and hedge positions, markets are highly leveraged, divided in direction but empty, and there is room for further crowding out once prices continue。

4.2Event driven short-end crowding, medium- and far-out defense

An event-driven structure of options and holding structures. Quantification of monthly options with date rights, where date rights4/10Up to the weekly peak, the ultra-short line runs a high-frequency game around the back and forth fluctuations of the ceasefire evidence; the monthly option is in4/7-4/8The anticipated phase of the ceasefire was concentrated, reflecting the medium-term orientation of the institutions during the geo-window period. By contrast, cyclical rights continuous indentation1-2There is a lack of clear directional consensus on the dimensions. In terms of the maturity structure, the transaction is mainly focused on the contract that expires on that date and expires next Friday, and the short-end defence requirements are evident; the medium- and long-terms are reduced and the overall neutral configuration is neutral. It's a big dealBTCarbitrage in term structure (♪ on the short end ♪by the LordETHIt is dominated by a multi-premature bill of rights strategy, which suggests that the market is now more engaged in volatile structures and inter-district games than in unilateral direction。

4.3Defensive premiums are still in place, but let's see if the mood's cool

BTC 25-Delta SkewHold the deadline- Fourto- 8 volIt's not like it's a bad ideaPutThe premium remains dominant and the market as a whole maintains a hedge demand for downside risks. But compared to..ThreeEnd of month- Eightto- 11 volThe extremesSkewIt's clearly elevated2-3individualvol pointIt's a reflection of the slight easing of the mood。ETH SkewThe changes are even more significant, as beforeFiveto- 8 volMove the whole area up to- Threeto+2 volSome of the deadlines are even close to symmetry, suggesting a marked contraction in market pricing of downside risk. But, Long End..SkewThere has been no significant change, and the institutional level has not yet completely shifted to an offensive, maintaining overall low-security, but non-completed, configuration。

4.4 DVOLBack to the baseline range, with the swing premium entering the compression phase

BTC DVOLCurrent approx44.76FromTwoAt the beginning of the month, the geologic conflict triggered90+Extreme levels continue to fallOneMid-term baseline range。FourThe monthly ceasefire incident brought only a brief pulse45-50The market no longer gives high volatile premiums to single geo-incidents. CurrentDVOLClose to six-monthly average support45–48If you go further40Near, will enter the historically low-wave zone。ETH DVOLCurrent approx65.50, also back to pre-conflict levels, but relativeBTCStill high20 vol pointI don't know. A combination of large-scale and volatile sales strategies in large transactions can confirm that the dominant market judgement is a low-wave shock environment. Overall, the volatility rate is at a condensed end and the seller ' s yield space is shrinking, but it also provides a more cost-effective entry window for the medium-term buy-in strategy。

5.This week ahead

6.KateInstitutional dynamics update

Transaction performance: structural optimization, overall market-winning

•It's a big deal for reals and contracts

•After an iterative process of market rates and evaluation rules, there has been a significant increase in customer activity in the centre waist and a continuous optimization of the transaction structure

CrossEx: trade volume and build-up record, acceleration of linkage to the management platform

•CrossExIncentive activity continues to drive loads and trade discharges, with multiple clients entering the physical and strategic stages, with transaction volumes and deposits at an all-time high

•Advancing and managing the PlatformOTC LoanAssociation

Financial operations: sustained recovery of needs and structural fragmentation

•There has been a significant increase in the scale of current and full-time borrowing

•ETHI don't knowUSDTAnd a huge return to the need to borrow assets. litres

Technical progress: performance and functional upgrading

•Websocket SBEGo online, improve data transmission efficiency

•AIThe passenger-service robots are on the ground, gradually enabling themBDClient services

 

Data source:

•Investing, https://investing.com/currences/xau-usd-history-data

•Gate, https://www.gate.com/trade/BTC USDT

•CMC, https://coinmarkcap.com/real-world-assets/? type=all-tokens

•Coinglass, https://www.coinglass.com/pro/depth-delta

•Dune, https://dune.com/gatesearch/gate-trade#weekly-volume

•Dune, https://dune.com/gateresearch/gate-interactive-weekly-report

•Bybit, https://www.bybit.com/future-activity/en/tradefi

•Bitget, https://www.bitgettradfi.com/tradefi/XAUSD

•CriptoQuant, https://cryptoquant.com/asset/btc/chart/derivatives

•Amberdata, https://pro.amberdata.io/options/deribit/btc/current/

 

KateInstituteIt is a comprehensive block chain and encrypted monetary research platform that provides readers with in-depth content, including technical analysis, hot spot insight, market review, industry research, trend forecasting and macroeconomic policy analysis。

 

Disclaimer

The investments in encrypted money markets involve high risks, and users are advised to conduct independent research before making any investment decisions and to fully understand the nature of the assets and products purchased。 Kate No liability exists for any loss or damage caused by such investment decisions。