Fed Dec 9–10 Meeting: What to Expect for Bitcoin, Gold and Stocks as 25 bps Cut Looms
Markets expect a 25 bps rate cut by the Fed, which could boost stocks, gold and crypto. The article discusses how a dovish tone and easing monetary policy might influence global markets — with particular focus on Bitcoin, gold and equities — but notes crypto’s volatility and sensitivity to macroeconomic changes.
Investors head into the Fed’s Dec 9–10 policy meeting expecting a quarter-point (25 bps) rate cut. Major banks (Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan and BofA) have reversed earlier forecasts and now predict a 25 bps cut, citing soft U.S. data and dovish Fed signals.
The CME FedWatch tool shows 86.2% odds of a cut, and a poll found 82% of economists (89 of 108) backing a 25 bps cut to support a cooling labor market.
Fed rate cut odds in December jumps to 86.2%. | Source: @AshCrypto on X.
Fed officials are split: New York Fed’s John Williams and Governors Waller and Daly have signaled readiness to ease, whereas Powell himself warned in November that a move was “far from a foregone conclusion.”
Markets are now fully pricing in the cut, so traders will scrutinize the statement and press briefing for clues about 2026 policy.
- FedPoll and futures: A poll (Nov.28–Dec.4) showed 82% of economists forecast a 25 bps cut, matching FedWatch’s 87% odds.
- Major banks shift: Morgan Stanley (and peer JPM/BofA) “now expect” a 25 bps cut in December, reversing earlier calls. The change reflects weaker jobs/manufacturing and dovish Fed speakers.
- Fed split: Policymakers are divided. Some officials (Williams, Bowman, Waller, Miran, Daly) have leaned toward easing, but reports suggest up to 5 of 12 voters still oppose further cuts.
- Underlying data: Recent U.S. data (manufacturing contraction, Fed’s preferred PCE inflation slowing) have reinforced cut bets. Weak labor data (private jobs declining sharply) have also boosted expectations for easier policy.
Top Picks for Bitcoin
When Is the Fed December Meeting
The next FOMC policy meeting is December 9–10, 2025. The committee will issue its policy decision on Wednesday, December 10, 2025. If following historical pattern: decision release typically happens in the afternoon U.S. time (e.g. 2:00 pm ET), followed by a press conference shortly after.
This meeting is particularly significant as markets overwhelmingly expect a 25-basis-point rate cut, with traders and economists closely watching the statement and forward guidance for hints about the Fed’s policy direction
